Guns, & More Guns–Never Mind Social Security

Corruption, Government, Military
Chuck Spinney Sounds Off...

Politico is a inside the beltway newsletter that revels in political gossip — the kind of new media phenomena that reflects the self-inflating, self-referencing character of behavior in the Hall of Mirrors that is Versailles on the Potomac.  This rag is funded by right leaning contributors.  That said, Politico is a barometer of sorts — in this case of bad ju ju (see report below).

Note, for example — its description of how pressure is building to whack the Pentagon’s budget.  It will be interesting to see how Military – Industrial – Congressional Complex (MICC) will wiggle out of the squeeze described in last few graphs.  For what it is worth, my guess is that the MICC will move to protect its hi-tech cold-war rice bowls at the expense of its people and readiness.  But we are in the middle of at least two wars — which of course will generate effective counter-pressures, because we “must to protect the troops!” — and so in the end very little will happen beyond a few cometic swipes.  This one of the benefits of perpetual small wars or the perpetual threat of small wars (explained more fully in my essay, The Domestic Roots of Perpetual War) A more extensive discourse on the MICC's game will be found in soon to be released anthology, The Pentagon Labyrinth, which will be freely available in hard copy as well as electronic form).

So, get ready for a run on Social Security (and Medicare?), which conveniently is not even mentioned in the Politico “report.”  Obama made SS more vulnerable with his recent “temporary” 2% cut in withholding tax. My guess is that little will happen to SS in near term, but the “phony solvency issue” was strengthened by the cut, and we should expect it to be reinforced endlessly in the looming political debate. Liberal economists who recently welcomed Obama's tax cut by arguing that it will clarify the real “pay as you go” nature of economic debate over SS may be in for a nasty surprise.

Continue reading “Guns, & More Guns–Never Mind Social Security”

CIA Re-Direction of Clandestine Operations

Advanced Cyber/IO, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government
DefDog Recommends...

CIA's Panetta Shakes up His Spy Corps

Paul Bedard, Washington Whispers

US News & world report, Feburary 8, 2011

In a major shift to reinvigorate the post-9/11 spy world inside the Central Intelligence Agency, Director Leon Panetta has decided to change how the agency's National Clandestine Service operates, potentially impacting up to half the CIA's workforce. The shift is part of Panetta's long-range “CIA 2015″ reorganization plan and should make the agency much more agile and quick to respond in the war on terror and other national security flare-ups.

Read rest of short article….

Phi Beta Iota: This is not a shake-up.  This is an abandonment of language skills and cultural knowledge as a foundation for effective clandestine operations, and a general acknowledgment that the clandestine service is merely in liaison business, and “one size fits all” since English is the common languages for both spies and air traffic controllers.  A “real” clandestine service would have five classes of personnel in more or less equal measure:

  • Career Trainees 20%
  • Mid-Career US Citizen Non-Official Cover Hires 20%
  • Mid-Career Non-US Citizen Non-Official Cover Hires 20%
  • Foreign Liaison Rotationals to Multinational Field Stations 20%
  • One-Time “It's Just Business” Contracts 20%

What CIA has today is way too many youngsters with no real foreign experience, and way too many annuitants (contractors) and old guys who will finally retire when the money dries up, as it is about to.  CIA clandestine operations have no bench, no middle, and no strategy for the future, in part because CIA analytics are not serious, CIA multi-lingual processing at machine speed does not exist, and CIA leverage of global open sources and methods is both out-sourced and pedestrian.  At the same time that our Embassies have become “bunkers,” our spies are increasingly uninformed, disconnected, and ineffective for lack of language, context, and leadership.

Why Boeing is Imploding–Spinney, Sprey, & Reality vs Political Engineering & Government Spec Cost Plus

10 Security, Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Military
Chuck Spinney Sounds Off...

Below are three separate contributions:  Spinney on Sprey; Sprey on Boeing; and Seattle Times on Boeing.

CHUCK SPINNEY SOUNDS OFF

President Obama says that restoring America’s competitiveness is one of his top priorities.  Yet under his watch, deindustrialization, financialization, and globalization continue without interruption.  Many advocates of defense spending argue that spinoffs from the Pentagon's R&D and high tech engineering practices are keys to reinvigorating America’s manufacturing economy.  For whatever reasons, Mr. Obama shows no intention of reining in defense spending by anything more than a cosmetic amount, even though the defense budget is higher now that at any time since the end of WWII (after removing the cumulative effect of 60 years of inflation), and despite the fact that the United States is spending about as much on defense as the rest of the world combined.

Continue reading “Why Boeing is Imploding–Spinney, Sprey, & Reality vs Political Engineering & Government Spec Cost Plus”

Report Casts Doubt on Taliban’s Ties With Al Qaeda

08 Wild Cards, Analysis, Cultural Intelligence, Government, History, Intelligence (government), Policy, Strategy
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N.Y.U. Report Casts Doubt on Taliban’s Ties With Al Qaeda

By CARLOTTA GALL

Published: February 6, 2011

KABUL, Afghanistan — The Afghan Taliban have been wrongly perceived as close ideological allies of Al Qaeda, and they could be persuaded to renounce the global terrorist group, according to a report to be published Monday by New York University.

The report goes on to say that there was substantial friction between the groups’ leaders before the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and that hostility has only intensified.

The authors, Alex Strick van Linschoten and Felix Kuehn, have worked in Afghanistan for years and edited the autobiography of a Taliban diplomat, many of whose ideas are reflected in the report. The authors are among a small group of experts who say the only way to end the war in Afghanistan is to begin peace overtures to the Taliban.

Read more….

Phi Beta Iota: History is important not only to understanding others, but when used retrospectively to examine one's own actions, assumptions, beliefs, and motivations, most helpful in refining the art and science of intelligence (decision making) and public policy making (a mix of politics and professionalism that too often loses its integrity for lack of public intelligence).

From Egypt to Connecticut–Burning Mansions

03 Economy, 07 Other Atrocities, 09 Justice, Commerce, Cultural Intelligence, Government
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Egypt’s Ire Turns to Confidant of Mubarak’s Son

CAIRO — As Egyptians turned their anger on symbols of the state late last month, torching police stations along with the headquarters of President Hosni Mubarak’s ruling party, they reserved a special hatred for a garish building with black tinted windows in an upscale neighborhood, setting fire to it three times.

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Phi Beta Iota: Americans are slow to anger, but we see the day coming when Connnecticut mansions begin to burn….the preconditions for revolution in the USA are virtually all present.

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