Reference: Collapse in early Mesopotamian states–what happened and what didn’t

Advanced Cyber/IO, Cultural Intelligence

ABSTRACT:  This paper presents examples of macro-societal change, the nature of social interaction in highly stratified societies, and principles of  stability and instability in hierarchies, and it discusses the choices that humans, of high status and low, made and which affected their lives in the most profound ways.

CORE QUOTE:  Stuart Kauffman (1993, 1995), working at the SFI, points out that systems that are too highly connected (or hypercoherent) can suffer a “complexity catastrophe” because the parts are too interdependent such that the impacts to one or some will cascade into others, an “avalanche of coevolutionary changes” (in a phrase echoing Bak's avalachnes of piles of sand).  “Robust” systesm for Kauffman are those which are flexible enough to maintain “structural stability.”

Graphic: OSINT and Multinational Defense in Depth

Advanced Cyber/IO, Analysis, Balance, Capabilities-Force Structure, Collection, Earth Orientation, Geospatial, ICT-IT, Innovation, Languages-Translation, Leadership-Integrity, Multinational Plus, Policies-Harmonization, Political, Processing, Reform, Strategy-Holistic Coherence, Threats, Tribes

In the absence of a Strategic Analytic Model that can serve as the basis for assured mutual-interest Multinational Engagement, secret intelligence is inevitably going to fail time and again.  Casting a wide net with Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) and Multinational Multiagency Multidiscipolinary Multidomain Information-Sharing and Sense-making (M4IS2) as the foundation for all-source intelligence and deep invasive secret collection, is a common-sense affordable mission-oriented performance enhancer.

Graphic: OSINT, Missions, & Disciplines

Advanced Cyber/IO, Balance, Collection, Multinational Plus, Processing, Strategy-Holistic Coherence
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Source:  2009 DoD OSINT Leadership and Staff Briefings

Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) is central to both the informed execution of all inter-agency and multinational operations other than war (OOTW) and to the proper direction of all of the classified disciplines without exception.

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Graphic: Herring Triangle of Four Levels Need & Cost

Advanced Cyber/IO, Balance, Collection, Innovation, Multinational Plus, Strategy-Holistic Coherence

Jan Herring, the first National Intelligence Officer for Science & Technology (NIO/S&T) is the father of Open Source Intelligence in the USA.  Now retired, his baton has been picked up by Robert Steele, who took the campaign multinational.  The history continuing resistance to what was originally Jan Herring's lead is covered briefly in 2008 IJIC 21/3 The Open Source Program: Missing in Action.