Yoda: Thinking in a Foreign Language Improves Decisions

07 Other Atrocities, Corruption, Government, IO Impotency, Military, Officers Call, Policies
Got Crowd? BE the Force!

Maybe we should stop worrying about analysts w second language capabilities and insist that policymakers have a second language.

Thinking in foreign language makes decisions more rational

To judge a risk more clearly, it may help to consider it in a foreign language.

A series of experiments on more than 300 people from the US and Korea found that thinking in a second language reduced deep-seated, misleading biases that unduly influence how risks and benefits are perceived.

“Would you make the same decisions in a foreign language as you would in your native tongue?” asked psychologists led by Boaz Keysar of the University of Chicago in an April 18 Psychological Science study.

“It may be intuitive that people would make the same choices regardless of the language they are using, or that the difficulty of using a foreign language would make decisions less systematic. We discovered, however, that the opposite is true: Using a foreign language reduces decision-making biases,” wrote Keysar’s team.

Psychologists say human reasoning is shaped by two distinct modes of thought: one that’s systematic, analytical and cognition-intensive, and another that’s fast, unconscious and emotionally charged.

In light of this, it’s plausible that the cognitive demands of thinking in a non-native, non-automatic language would leave people with little leftover mental horsepower, ultimately increasing their reliance on quick-and-dirty cogitation.

Equally plausible, however, is that communicating in a learned language forces people to be deliberate, reducing the role of potentially unreliable instinct. Research also shows that immediate emotional reactions to emotively charged words are muted in non-native languages, further hinting at deliberation.

. . . . . . .

The researchers believe a second language provides a useful cognitive distance from automatic processes, promoting analytical thought and reducing unthinking, emotional reaction.

Read full article.

Phi Beta Iota:  Integrity is not just about people making decisions.  It is about the whole — the context, the clarity of communication, the diversity of views, the integrity of all feedback loops.  Today there is very little integrity in the process of intelligence – on those rare occasions when it actually exists — and there is zero integrity in the policy process, something Paul Pillar and Morton Halperin (among many others) have documented nicely.

See Also:

Morton Halperin, Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy (Brookings, 2006)

Daniel Kahneman, Thinking Fast and Slow (Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011)

Paul Pillar, Intelligence and U.S. Foreign Policy: Iraq, 9/11, and Misguided Reform (Columbia, 2011)

Phi Beta Iota: Journal: Politics & Intelligence–Partners Only When Integrity is Central to Both

DefDog: Cyber-Idiocy Rules

Commerce, Corruption, Government, IO Impotency, Law Enforcement, Military
DefDog

Still fixation on monolithic threats…..where are errors and ommissions, poor coding, etc?

Rethinking cyber warfare

Scott Borg:  Cyber warfare will require us to rethink every aspect of defence.  Our current weapons and defence systems will still be needed, but the way we use them will become very different.  A major cyber assault could completely bypass our military forces.  It would not require incoming airplanes, missiles, ships, or troops.  The attack could suddenly appear inside the computerized equipment of our major industries.  The identity of the country or organization that was responsible could be impossible to determine quickly or with complete confidence.  The cyber assault could cause almost any kind of damage that could be produced by the human operators of computerized equipment.  In fact, a cyber attack could cause many kinds of damage that the human operators of industrial equipment could only achieve by reprogramming their controls.

Phi Beta Iota:  Nobody has learned anything since NSA first learned about hackers and then was told to focus on both the security of corporation communications and the need for a national secure information infrastructure.  The above perspective is uninformed, and also dangerous for its idiotic suggestion that we should militarize all domestic systems.

See Also:  Graphic: Cyber-Threat 101

 

Mini-Me: DoD “Spies” Will Die Often — Expect More “Car Crashes” All Over the World — and the Four Part Solution Clapper, Vickers, and Flynn Need to Consider

DoD, Intelligence (government), IO Impotency, Military
Who? Mini-Me?

Huh?

NIGHTWATCH

Mali-US: For the record. US Africa Command announced that on 20 April three US soldiers and three civilians died in an automobile crash in Bamako. One was from the Army's intelligence and security command and two were from special forces – Special Operations Command. The civilians were not identified, but almost certainly were clandestine agents.

Comment: This announcement is the first US admission since the government overthrow that US military and government civilians are present and active in Mali. The US has sent military and apparently civilian intelligence personnel to assist and improve the counter-terrorism capabilities of several Sahelian African states, including Mali.

Some people in Mali will interpret this announcement as confirming early news service accusations that US military personnel encouraged the US-trained Mali Army captain to overthrow his government.

NIGHTWATCH KGS Home

Pentagon increasing spy presence overseas

Defense Department Plans New Intelligence Gathering Service

Phi Beta Iota:  People don't die in car crashes in Mali — especially six at a time.  Dover AFB has been getting body bags from all over the world for some time now.  We have to say this: the only thing stupider than CIA doing a “Khost Kathy” all over the place is DIA trying to get into the spy business.  CIA has been living immunity and a lack of accountability to include ignoring all DoD requirements for anything outside any capital city.  CIA is not a spy service.  It is a bureaucracy that begs at two tables: the foreign liaison table and the US legal traveler table.  It has survived (kept the myth alive)  on foreign liaison hand-outs and the use of secrecy to conceal gross ineptitude.  DIA spying–apart from being totally unnecessary–must by definition get into the provinces.  There are four solutions, but no one at DIA or INSCOM (or CIA for that matter–CIA has no bench) has the depth of understanding and experience to get it right, so General Flynn is going to blow his entire tenure dealing with kindergarten kids playing dress-up.  Here are the four solutions:

Continue reading “Mini-Me: DoD “Spies” Will Die Often — Expect More “Car Crashes” All Over the World — and the Four Part Solution Clapper, Vickers, and Flynn Need to Consider”

Marcus Aurelius: NSA Declassifies Top Secret Umbra Report on Berlin Tunnel

Director of National Intelligence et al (IC), Intelligence (government), IO Impotency
Marcus Aurelius

Certainly worth a read. As time goes by, but only retrospectively, long after everyone has retired or died, accountability in terms of cost versus gain will eventually come to the fore.

nsa-operation-regal

Phi Beta Iota:  There are two forms of accountability, neither of which is achievable today.  The first is as mentioned above, cost-benefit analysis.  General Tony Zinni has nailed it with his assessment that today's $80 billion a year community produces “at best” 4% of what a major commander needs —  General Mike Flynn documented results even worse than that for Afghanistan.  The other form of accountability has to do with laxity in counterintelligence and operations security.  NSA biggest dirty secret for the past 50 years is that the Soviets captured core crypto machines in Viet-Nam, and then got the key cards from penetrations of the US Navy.  The raw fact is that secrecy is used to hide fraud, waste, and abuse 90% of the time.  Best quote on the latter point:

“Everybody who's a real practioner, and I'm sure you're not all naive in this regard, realizes that there are two uses to which security classification is put: the legitmate desire to protect secrets, and the protection of bureaucratic turf. As a practitioner of the real world, it's about 90 bureaucratic turf, 10 legitimate protection of secrets as far as I am concerned.”

Rodley B. McDaniel, then Executive Secretary of the National Security Council, on page 68
C3i: Issues of Command and Control (NDU Press, 1991)

Mini-Me: Hundreds of Thousands Will Go Off-Line in July – With Verification Comment by Winn Schwartau

IO Impotency
Who? Mini-Me?

Huh?

FBI: Hundreds Of Thousands May Lose Internet In July

WASHINGTON (AP) — For computer users, a few mouse clicks could mean the difference between staying online and losing Internet connections this summer.

Unknown to most of them, their problem began when international hackers ran an online advertising scam to take control of infected computers around the world. In a highly unusual response, the FBI set up a safety net months ago using government computers to prevent Internet disruptions for those infected users. But that system is to be shut down.

The FBI is encouraging users to visit a website run by its security partner, http://www.dcwg.org , that will inform them whether they're infected and explain how to fix the problem. After July 9, infected users won't be able to connect to the Internet.

Most victims don't even know their computers have been infected, although the malicious software probably has slowed their web surfing and disabled their antivirus software, making their machines more vulnerable to other problems.

Last November, the FBI and other authorities were preparing to take down a hacker ring that had been running an Internet ad scam on a massive network of infected computers.

“We started to realize that we might have a little bit of a problem on our hands because … if we just pulled the plug on their criminal infrastructure and threw everybody in jail, the victims of this were going to be without Internet service,” said Tom Grasso, an FBI supervisory special agent. “The average user would open up Internet Explorer and get ‘page not found' and think the Internet is broken.”

Full story below the line followed by Winn Schwartau's verification comment

Continue reading “Mini-Me: Hundreds of Thousands Will Go Off-Line in July – With Verification Comment by Winn Schwartau”

Richard Wright: General Flynn to Head DIA – Exile or Reward? PLUS Comments by BG Bubba Boo, Ralph Peters, and Airborne Ranger

Corruption, DoD, Ethics, Intelligence (government), IO Impotency, Military
Richard Wright

General Flynn to Head DIA: Exile or Reward?

General Michael Flynn (USA) has been nominated to become the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) in spite of or because of his severe criticisms of the inability of the U.S. Intelligence System to produce useful strategic intelligence on Afghanistan. As a result among the small portion of the media that even noted his nomination, a good deal of nonsense has been written about DIA. I hope this will clear the air a bit.

The DIA was created by Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara in 1961 with the specific mission of providing a single voice for the individual military service intelligence commands. As with many of Secretary McNamara’s ideas, DIA completely ignored reality. The service chiefs simply ignored DIA and the directors of DIA (all general officers of those services) went along.  In the press of the Vietnam War Secretary McNamara paid no attention to DIA after creating it. So DIA really had no defined mission and became known as the “redundant agency.”

Since its creation DIA has struggled to find a viable mission that would not interfere with the missions of the service intelligence commands or of the National Security Agency (NSA) which also was under the Department of Defense (DOD) or the independent Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) which had considerable status as the senior intelligence authority and in the theory the ear of the President. This continues to be a problem with DIA having only Measurement and Signature Intelligence (MASINT) as its exclusive domain.  DIA also has numerous heavily classified programs and projects, but when these see light of day they often prove to be pointless or even lunatic. DIA does have one central mission and that is to serve as the J2 (intelligence arm) for the Joint Chiefs of Staff (ICS). Having actually worked in J2, I can testify that this does not give DIA a good deal of authority either in the Intelligence Community (IC) or even with JCS.

Continue reading “Richard Wright: General Flynn to Head DIA – Exile or Reward? PLUS Comments by BG Bubba Boo, Ralph Peters, and Airborne Ranger”

Yoda: In with Flynn, Out with What? Can He Effect Change Clapper Could Not?

Corruption, DoD, Intelligence (government), IO Impotency, Military
Got Crowd? BE the Force!

Military Intelligence Gadfly Will Lead All Military Intelligence

One of the most disruptive men in the sprawling U.S. spy community, someone who turned the military’s elite killers into top spies, will likely soon be in charge of all military intelligence.

The Pentagon on Tuesday nominated Army Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn to be the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, the U.S.’ central military-intel hive. That might not go over so well with many responsible for battlefield intelligence. The first time most people outside of the shadows heard of Flynn, he was loudly complaining that military intelligence in Afghanistan sucked.

Eight years into the war in Afghanistan, the U.S. intelligence community is only marginally relevant to the overall strategy,” Flynn wrote in January 2010 for the Center for a New American Security, an influential D.C. think tank. At the time, Flynn was head of intelligence for the war command in Afghanistan. His remedy: Stop looking so much at the Taliban, since its presence and activities were lagging indicators of the war’s fates; understand instead the “pivotal Afghan districts” that would determine the war’s outcome — which, he also reported internally, did not look promising. To put it mildly, Army generals used to working behind the scenes do not usually issue such critiques at all, let alone in public.

That is, however, the kind of general Flynn seems to be. Long before he was moonlighting think-tank white papers, he helped transform the culture of the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC), getting its elite commandos to believe that collecting crucial clues from raids on terrorists was central to their missions. Although Flynn and his patron, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, left JSOC years before the attack on Osama bin Laden, the fact that the Navy SEALs left bin Laden’s Abbottabad compound with hundreds of thumb drives, cellphones and hard drives is part of their legacy.

 

All this disruption ended up professionally beneficial — a likely consequence of how highly the Defense Department esteems JSOC’s intelligence prowess. McChrystal’s successor in Afghanistan, Gen. David Petraeus, now the CIA director, kept Flynn on his team even as the rest of the McChrystal staff flamed out after a Rolling Stone expose. Flynn’s next job, which he retains, was to be a top deputy to the Director of National Intelligence, nominally the head of the 16-agency spy community.

The Defense Intelligence Agency is a powerful if obscure organization responsible for providing intelligence to military commands, the Pentagon and the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Its secret weapon: It’s chiefly responsible for all of the Defense Department’s human informants. Yet it can seem overly bureaucratic and in eclipse compared to the military tactical-intelligence shops it helps man.

“Flynn’s nomination is interesting because he does not seem like someone who would choose to be a placeholder at an agency in decline,” says spywatcher Steve Aftergood of the Federation of American Scientists. “The appointment may signal a revival of DIA, or at least some upheaval.”

It’s also yet another reminder that JSOC has had an overwhelming influence over the secretive intelligence world that fights the United States’ undeclared Shadow Wars. McChrystal, the man who revolutionized JSOC, may be gone. But his successor, Adm. William McRaven, is now the head of all U.S. special operations. His close friend Petraeus is now at the CIA. Another key ally, Michael Vickers, is the top civilian Pentagon official for intelligence.

Flynn is the latest to ascend, pending Senate approval. And he’s probably not done breaking the spy community’s furniture.

Phi Beta Iota:  From the US IC point of view, nothing changes as long as the money is constant.  The point of the US IC is to waste $80 billion a year on corporate vaporware, not to actually provide intelligence.  Jim Clapper, the single best qualified DNI in history, failed to change the IC because he did not focus on outputs–he let inputs and collection continue to drive the train, did nothing about processing, nothing significant about HUMINT, nothing at all about analysis which is worse off than it ever was, and he failed to actually create intelligence for Whole of Government or to implement initiatives in the open source  intelligence and the multinational, multiagency, multidimentional, multidomain information-sharing and sense-making arena.  He has been–like Gates was at DoD–a place holder, a token leader of one of the US budget's sucking chest wounds.  Flynn does not know what he does not know — he is simply not armed with what he needs to know to make the big changes that need to be made if intelligence with integrity is to be restored not just within DoD, but across Whole of Government.  With his present knowledge base, surrounded by the ever-present sychophants, he will make changes on the margin.  He will NOT change the craft of intelligence, especially if he continues to let contractors drive the train and rob the government of its key personnel.  He is inheriting a corrupt, pathologically-fragmented mess completely lacking in integrity.

See Also:

Continue reading “Yoda: In with Flynn, Out with What? Can He Effect Change Clapper Could Not?”

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