Journal: Chuck Spinney Sends….Afghanistan

08 Wild Cards
Chuck Spinney
Chuck Spinney

Highlighting by Chuck Spinney

High Cost, Low Odds

The Nation
October 21, 2009

Deciding what to do in Afghanistan requires a hard-nosed assessment of the

  • costs of the war,
  • the alleged benefits of victory
  • and the likelihood of success.
We know the price will be high. The United States has spent more than $223 billion on the Afghan war since 2001, and it now costs roughly $65 billion annually. The actual bill will be significantly higher, however, as these figures omit the replacement cost of military equipment, veterans' benefits and other war-related expenses. Most important, more than 850 US soldiers have already been killed and several thousand have been seriously wounded.

Journal: Chuck Spinney Sends…Turkey and Iran

08 Wild Cards
Chuck Spinney
Chuck Spinney

Turkey and the Iranian Question:

Implications for Regional Stability
Today's Guardian contains at report with the provocative leader,

‘Iran is our friend,' says Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan

• We have no difficulty with Ahmadinejad – Erdogan
• Warning to Europe not to ignore Turkey's strengths

Perhaps it is time for America and the EU to pressure the uppity Turks into toeing the party line?  I think not.

Continue reading “Journal: Chuck Spinney Sends…Turkey and Iran”

Journal: Chuck Spinney Sends…Syria’s Strategy

08 Wild Cards

Chuck Spinney
Chuck Spinney

The disastrous mid-east strategy of Mad King George put the interests of Israel before all the interests of all others, including ourselves.  It destroyed Iraq, alienated Turkey, countenanced the destruction of Gaza, placed Jordan in an impossible situation, and opened the door to the expansion of Iranian influence, among other things.  One reaction to this policy may be that some of the countries in the region now feel it is necessary, or see new opening, for going their own way, evolving new regional policies.  Yesterday, I discussed the emerging situation in Turkey (which has roots predating the the antics of the Bush Administration).  The attached article describes how Syria is struggling with some success to reach out to other countries in the region.

Syria’s Four Seas strategy
Yoav Stern
Syria Comment
Thursday, October 22nd, 2009

http://joshualandis.com/blog/?p=4252

Yoav Stern is Director, Business and economics department, Peres Center for Peace. Syria Comment is a very informative blogging website run by Professor Joshua Landis, Director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.

Journal: Cry Freedom and Let Loose the Public Mind

08 Wild Cards, Collaboration Zones, Communities of Practice, Ethics, Policies, Reform, Strategy, Threats

Full Speech Online
Full Speech Online

Address On Iceland &The IMF, Debt Moratorium, And Tobin Tax

Webster Tarpley Infowars    October 22, 2009

Delivered by Birgitta Jónsdóttir of The Movement in the Icelandic Parliament, October 5, 2009.

Madam President. Dear countrymen. We have a choice to make. We are never faced with just one way, one solution. To assert so is a testimony to incredible tunnel vision on the reality that we live in. We are far from being the first and only nation that has had to deal with crisis and economic collapse. Perhaps what makes our position unique is that we are in an economic war ­ a war with nations that are using their positions of power to get what they want. Does that mean that all other avenues are closed? Are there perhaps other possibilities than chaining us with the burdens of foreign debt far into the future?

. . . . . . .

We now need to make decisions based on hope, justice, and the resurrection of pride which comes from living in a country which many people believe is almost uninhabitable. We can and should seek all possible ways to find common solutions. Britain declared war on our nation when they labeled us as terrorists ­ the British authorities have used economic terrorism against us by misusing the IMF, and using our EU membership application as leverage in order to extort from us what they want in the Icesave [1] debate. It is morally wrong to lay debts on the shoulders of the public which it had nothing to do with in the first place.

Phi Beta Iota: We salute the gentle lady from Iceland, who has a great deal more integrity and common sense than anyone we know now making bad policy in the absence of good public intelligence in the public interest.  This speech is IMPORTANT–it is time to bring down the false economy of scaracity and secrecy, and implement Open Money and all other things Open (see our keytone, Open Everything.

Journal: Demise of Obama in Afghanistan Part I

08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Communities of Practice, Ethics, Peace Intelligence, Policy, Reform, Strategy
Chuck Spinney
Chuck Spinney

In my opinion, it is now almost certain that Afghanistan will wreck the presidency of Barack Obama.  As I feared, Mr. Obama has allowed the US military and its allies in the Democratic wing and Republican wing of the national-security apparat (there is no real difference between these wings) to ensnare him in the wreckage left by the Clinton/Blair/Bush not-so-grand strategy of “indispensable” power: coercive diplomacy punctuated by endless “[no-so] precision” warfare.  Supporting Sources for this Comment at end of posting.

Spinney Comments Continue After the Highlighted Article

Western export of the ballot box elixir is pure hubris

The absurd expectation heaped on Afghanistan's election is a fig leaf for leaders seduced by the allure of military power


Simon Jenkins  Guardian  20 October 2009 21.30 BST

Journal: Demise of Obama in Afghanistan Part II

08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Communities of Practice, Ethics, Peace Intelligence, Policy, Reform, Strategy
Chuck Spinney
Chuck Spinney

Johann Hari: The three fallacies that have driven the war in Afghanistan

Case for escalating the war is based on premises that turn to dust on inspection

Johann Hari Independent Wednesday, 21 October 2009

Is Barack Obama about to drive his Presidency into a bloody ditch strewn with corpses? The President is expected any day now to announce his decision about the future of the war in Afghanistan. He knows US and British troops have now been stationed in the hell-mouth of Helmand longer than the First and Second World Wars combined – yet the mutterings from the marble halls of Washington DC suggest he may order a troop escalation.

Obama has to decide now whether to side with the American people and the Afghan people calling for a rapid reduction in US force, or with a small military clique demanding a ramping-up of the conflict. The populations of both countries are in close agreement. The latest Washington Post poll shows that 51 per cent of Americans say the war is “not worth fighting” and that ending the foreign occupation will “reduce terrorism”. Only 27 per cent disagree. At the other end of the gun-barrel, 77 per cent of Afghans in the latest BBC poll say the on-going US air strikes are “unacceptable”, and the US troops should only remain if they are going to provide reconstruction assistance rather than bombs.

Continue reading “Journal: Demise of Obama in Afghanistan Part II”

Journal: Strategic Analysis & Culture Matter

08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Government, Military, Peace Intelligence

Full Story Online
Full Story Online

The Afghanistan Problem

The huge cultural misunderstandings between Western forces and the Afghan people make it unlikely any counterinsurgency mission in the countryside will succeed.

By Gilles Dorronsoro

In the countryside, Westerners are essentially perceived as corrupt and threatening to traditional Afghan or Muslim values. Contrary to our self-perception, the villagers see the foreigners as the main providers of insecurity. The presence of coalition troops means IEDs, ambushes and airstrikes, and consequently a higher probability of being killed, maimed or robbed of a livelihood. Any incident quickly reinforces the divide between locals and outsiders, and the Afghan media provide extensive and graphic coverage of botched airstrikes and injured civilians.
Continue reading “Journal: Strategic Analysis & Culture Matter”