Journal: The Rise and Rise Further of Turkey (Along with the Collapse of Israel and the NeoCons)

02 Diplomacy, 08 Wild Cards, Government, Peace Intelligence
Chuck Spinney
Chuck Spinney

Chuck Spinney Sends…

As someone who has lived in Turkey for most of the last two years, I have watched the development of her foreign policy with great interest, not to mention a good deal of confusion

It is hard to make sense out this rapidly-emerging, vibrant country of 70 million, increasingly well-educated, industrious people.  While its remote interior is still very traditional, Turkey's  coastal regions are already beginning to blossom into an outward looking, modern multinational consumer society, and the effects of rising incomes and education are very visible.  In the coastal regions, I would say that living standards are now higher than those of Portugal, about the same as those of Greece, and somewhat lower than those of  Spain.  To be sure, the interior is poorer, especially as one travels east, but even in the east, there is growing modernity.  Everywhere, markets are chock a block with high-quality healthy food and vast quantities middle income consumer goods, and there is fresh water galore, especially in the coastal regions.

The attached op-ed by Patrick Seale is a good summary that brings clarity to much of what is going on with Turkey's foreign policy and is well worth reading.

But there is more.  Not mentioned are Turkey's bilateral overtures to Russia, Georgia, the Ukraine, and the various Turkic countries in great swath of Central Asia (including the Uighurs in NW China), as well as a bewildering variety of multilateral environmental and economic initiatives in the Black Sea region (involving Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Georgia, Greece, and Turkey).

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Journal: Out of Troops, Strategy, & Leadership

08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Military

Phi Beta Iota: We'll figure out the troop balance, probably by getting serious about Of, By, and Through IQ forces between now and July 2010–we do that or both the Democrats and Republicans are toast in November 2010.  What merits deep reflection below is the mental health angle that ties in with the Fort Hood massacre.  And while we're on that topic, RUSH AND CRUSH is the new paradigm for surviving armed attacks.  See, Shout, Rush & Crush.  Absent a gattling gun, no one should be able to hit more than three people with this strategy, and two of those will almost certainly live.  From Virgiia Polytechnic to Fort Hood, citizens standing like sheep waiting to be murdered, is an indictment of our culture, education, and lack of leadership.

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New Afghan War Headache: Not Enough Troops Available?

David Wood, 11/6/09

Just to maintain the 16 current brigades in Iraq and Afghanistan is, let's see, three times 16 is 48 and – oops! We're already out of BCTs! And here's the White House blithely batting around numbers like 40,000 more troops. That's roughly eight BCTs, which do not exist.

Below the fold: two key paragraphs on stress, battle performance after multipe tour, and suicides.

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Journal: Obama-Clinton Implode Middle East

02 Diplomacy, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Ethics, Government, Peace Intelligence
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Obama Fails in Middle East

Robert Dreyfuss on 11/06/2009

Chuck Spinney Sends…..

The announcement by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas that he will not run for reelection is the exclamation point on the utter collapse of the Obama adminstration's Middle East policy. Launched to great expectations — the appointment of George Mitchell, Obama's Cairo declaration that the plight of the Palestinians is intolerable — it is now in complete disarray. It is, without doubt, the first major defeat for Obama's hope-and-change foreign policy.

Here's how it unraveled.

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Journal: Chuck Spinney Sends–Viet-Nam RMK-BRJ Reprise….Wanna Fix New Orleans? Just move it to Afghanistan….

08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Ethics, Military

… because, even though Obama may think he is weighing his policy “options,” the Pentagon is busily politically engineering the the flow of infrastructure funds needed to lock in the constituent support for its Long War.

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2014 or Bust: The Pentagon’s Afghan Building Boom
Nick Turse and Tom Engelhardt, November 06, 2009

In our day, the American way of war, especially against lightly armed guerrillas, insurgents, and terrorists, has proved remarkably heavy. Elephantine might be the appropriate word. The Pentagon likes to talk about its “footprint” on the geopolitical landscape. In terms of the infrastructure it’s built in Iraq and Afghanistan, perhaps “crater” would be a more reasonable image.

American wars are now gargantuan undertakings. The prospective withdrawal of significant numbers/most/all American forces from Iraq, for instance, will — in terms of time and effort — make the 2003 invasion look like the vaunted “cakewalk” it was supposed to be. According to Pentagon estimates, more than 1.5 million (yes, that is “million”) pieces of U.S. equipment need to be removed from the country. Just stop and take that in for a second.

Of course, it’s a less surprising figure when you realize that the Pentagon managed to build, furnish, and supply almost 300 bases, macro to micro, in Iraq alone in the war years. And some of those bases were — and still are — the size of small American towns with tens of thousands of troops, private contractors, and others, as well as massive perimeters, multiple bus routes, full-scale PX’s, fast-food outlets, movie theaters, and the like.

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Journal: Out of Touch with Reality III

02 Diplomacy, 05 Civil War, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Government, Peace Intelligence
Chuck Spinney
Chuck Spinney

Chuck Spinney Sends… America's diplomatic recipe for winning the hearts and minds of “furriners” in the 21st Century:

Mix –  Blind unreasoning fear with the
Domestic politics of privatizing embassy protection and the
Domestic politics of huge construction contracts

into neat grand-strategic soufflé, then bake it in the domestic political-economic oven of heated by the coals of the  MICC's Long War Against Terrorism and serve hot to a world that hungers for American values.

For those readers who question the political relevance of such a tasty dish, I offer the following op-ed by Simon Tisdall of the Guardian

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Journal: Between a Rock and a Hard Place

05 Civil War, 08 Wild Cards

Intelligence for the President--AND Everyone Else
Intelligence for the President--AND Everyone Else

A Long-Term Disaster for Obama and the US

The Delegitimization of Karzai
By PATRICK COCKBURN

The election in Afghanistan has turned into a disaster for all who promoted it. Hamid Karzai has been declared re-elected as president of the country for the next five years though his allies inside and outside Afghanistan know that he owes his success to open fraud. Instead of increasing his government’s legitimacy, the poll has further de-legitimized it.  . . . . . . .

In Iraq, unlike Afghanistan, the government was democratically elected by a huge majority in 2005. There was a savage civil war because the fifth of the population, who are Sunni Arabs, did not accept that victory of four fifths who are Shia Arabs and Kurds. The Shia did not relish US occupation, but they were prepared to cooperate with it while they took power. Only the Kurds were long term US allies.

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Journal: Impact Investing

03 Economy, 04 Indonesia, 08 Wild Cards, Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, Ethics
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The idea that for-profit investment can have positive social and environmental impact has been talked about for some time, and is increasingly being put to practice. This phenomenon of Impact Investing has the potential to complement philanthropy and government in addressing to some of the planet's most deeply entrenched challenges, including climate change, agricultural productivity, shelter, and health, among others. By tapping the global capital markets, impact investing can unlock financial resources to address these challenges at a scale that government and philanthropy cannot match.

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