06 Russia – Page 19 – Public Intelligence Blog

WEEKEND EDITION JAN 31-FEB 02, 2014

Fanning the Fires of Chaos in the Ukraine

What is the Real Price of Starting Another Cold War?

by FRANKLIN C. SPINNEY, Counterpunch

In the late 1980s, the leaders of the West promised Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev that they would not expand eastward if the Soviet Union pulled out of Eastern Europe and ended the Cold War. That promise was not kept. A triumphal West stuck it to the Soviet Union’s greatly weakened Russian successor by incorporating the former Warsaw Pact countries into NATO and the EU. But that was not enough to sate the lust of the neo-liberal triumphalists in search of a new imperium. Their next move tried to incorporate the Caucasus country of Georgia — a country more a part of Central Asia than of Europe — into the West’s sphere of influence. That turned out to be a bridge too far; the Russians intervened militarily to put a stop to the lunacy.

But events in the Ukraine suggest that stop may have been viewed as a temporary speed bump on the pathway to rolling back Russia’s geography to the years of Ivan the Terrible.

Continue reading “Chuck Spinney: Is US Starting a New Cold War in the Ukraine? At What Cost to Our Future?”

2014/01/282014/01/28

Chuck Spinney: Should US Leave Afghanistan? Is BBC Out of Its Mind? Robert Steele Comments

02 China, 03 India, 05 Iran, 06 Russia, 08 Wild Cards, IO Impotency, Peace Intelligence

The attached BBC report/video by John Simpson describing Afghan attitudes toward the US/UK exit struck me as bizarre. The weight of Simpson's gist is that most Afghans do not want us to leave. But the report based most of its information on interviews in Kabul and only a short part (the wobbly part) on the countryside where the vast majority of Afghans live — i.e., Helmand. Simpson did not mention of Taliban strongholds in Kandahar and the border areas with Pakistan,nor did he mention the western areas like Herat, or the Northern areas. So I asked an Afghan friend who follows events in Afghanistan closely for his take on this report. Attached below the video link is my friend's reaction and a NYT piece with yellow highlights.

Afghanistan: Will the Taliban take over again? (with video)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25864611

(BBC) The BBC's world affairs editor John Simpson visited Kabul, a city he knows well, to discover what shape Afghan government forces are in and whether the Taliban could take over after UK and American troops leave.

———–

Email from Mr. X

(a highly educated Afghan — ethnic Pashtun — an expat living in Europe)

2014/01/062014/04/24

Evan Ellis: Russia, Iran, and China in Latin America

02 China, 05 Iran, 06 Russia, 07 Venezuela, 08 Wild Cards, Commercial Intelligence, Cultural Intelligence, Peace Intelligence

I am writing to share with you my new article, “Russia, Iran and China in Latin America,” just published by the American Foreign Policy Committee in their e-journal “Defense Dossier.” The work comparatively examines the activities of the three extra-regional actors in Latin America and the Caribbean, including ways in which commercial and governmental initiatives by each compliment (and occasionally conflict or compete with) each other. I emphasize that each actor presents a different type of challenge to US interests in the region, on a different time-scale.

Defense Dossier, December 2013 (pp. 7-10)

2014/01/052014/01/05

4th Media: Has Saudi Arabia Declared War on Russia?

04 Inter-State Conflict, 06 Russia, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism

Volgograd and the Conquest of Eurasia: Has House of Saud Seen Its Stalingrad?

The events in Volgograd are part of a much larger body of events and a multi-faceted struggle that has been going on for decades as part of a cold war after the Cold War—the post-Cold War cold war, if you please—that was a result of two predominately Eurocentric world wars. When George Orwell wrote his book 1984 and talked about a perpetual war between the fictional entities of Oceania and Eurasia, he may have had a general idea about the current events that are going on in mind or he may have just been thinking of the struggle between the Soviet Union and, surrounded by two great oceans, the United States of America.

So what does Volgograd have to do with the dizzying notion presented? Firstly, it is not schizophrenic to tie the events in Volgograd to either the conflict in the North Caucasus and to the fighting in Syria or to tie Syria to the decades of fighting in the post-Soviet North Caucasus. The fighting in Syria and the North Caucuses are part of a broader struggle for the mastery over Eurasia. The conflicts in the Middle East are part of this very grand narrative, which to many seems to be so far from the reality of day to day life.

Read full article.

2013/12/312013/12/31

NIGHTWATCH: Saudi-Funded Wahhabism on the Table as Enemy #1

02 China, 03 India, 05 Iran, 06 Russia, 08 Wild Cards, Cultural Intelligence, IO Deeds of War

Syria: President Bashar Asad Monday called for a battle against Wahhabism, the political and religious theology embraced by the Saudi Arabian government that backs the Sunni uprising against his regime.

“President Assad said that extremists and Wahhabi thought distort the real Islam, which is tolerant,” state news agency SANA reported. He underlined the role of men of religion in fighting against Wahhabi thought, which is foreign to our societies, according to Asad.

Wahhabism is an ultra-conservative Muslim tradition, which is predominant in Saudi Arabia and whose intolerant precepts govern Saudi religious, civilian and political life. It is a sect of Sunni Islam, whose leaders profess has no sects.

Continue reading “NIGHTWATCH: Saudi-Funded Wahhabism on the Table as Enemy #1”

2013/12/132013/12/13

Evan Ellis: China in Venezuelan Oil

02 China, 03 India, 05 Energy, 06 Russia, 07 Venezuela, 10 Security, 11 Society

In the aftermath of elections in Venezuela, I am writing to share with you my new publication “China, Russia, India and the Venezuelan Petroleum Industry,” just published by Latin Business Chronicle.

PDF (5 Pages): CN RU IN & VE Oil

Given the amount of confusion that has existed about the role of external actors in Venezuela, the article seeks to present the key facts and data regarding Chinese loans, oil investment and other support to the Venezuelan petroleum sector, in the context of Indian and Russian activities in the sector as well. I would like to offer my sincere thanks to a number of experts in the Venezuelan petroleum, financial, and other sectors who shared their knowledge and dedicated the time so that I could get the story right.

Dr. Evan Ellis is a professor of national security studies, modeling, gaming and simulation with the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies at the National Defense University, with a research focus on Latin America's relationships with external actors, including China, Russia and Iran, as well as work on populism in the Andes, transnational criminal organizations and gangs in Mexico and Central America, energy security, and non-traditional national security topics. Dr. Ellis has published over 50 works, including the 2009 book China in Latin America: The Whats and Wherefores, as well as articles in national security, finance, and technical journals.

2013/12/112013/12/11

Chuck Spinney: Russia & The Kurdish Card

06 Russia, 08 Wild Cards, Cultural Intelligence, Peace Intelligence

The Kurds are the world’s largest ethnic group (25-35 million) without a nation. As the graphic below shows, Kurds are widely distributed throughout the turbulent regions of Middle East and Central Asia. The green areas are the major areas of heavy Kurdish concentration — but small enclaves exist in areas not marked. (For example, I met many Kurdish Turks in western Anatolia in 2008-9 — my impression was that these urban Kurds were well integrated into Turkish society, unlike their brethren in the East.)

Below is a report analyzing a little known dimension to the Kurdish Question in the turbulent North Caucasus (i.e. the area of red ellipse), where a relatively small number (approximately 64,000) people of Kurdish origin now reside.

The author argues that Russia’s Kurds are sending humanitarian aid to anti-Jihadi Kurds in Syria while Jihadis from Russian Republics of Chechnya and Dagestan (also in the North Caucasus) are flowing into Syria, possibly setting the stage from some kind of blowback in the North Caucasus. (I have no idea of how accurate this report is — and can not vouch for it.)

But if true, Russia’s emerging Kurdish Question could be exceedingly complex, involving internal relations with its turbulent Caucasus Republics and external relations with Turkey, Syria, Azerbaijan, and possibly Iran, among others. These problems may have had something to do with Putin’s tamping down of Obama’s ill-considered efforts to intervene in the Syrian Civil war last August and September — an intervention that would have effectively placed the US on the side of Jihadis we claim to be fighting in the so-called Global War on Terror (GWOT) — and are enemies of the Russians as well.

Chuck Spinney

The Blaster

Will Russia play the Kurdish card?

MAXIM A. SUCHKOV

Maxim A. Suchkov, Ph.D., a former Fulbright visiting fellow at Georgetown University (2010-11), is currently a fellow at the Institute for Strategic Studies at the North Caucasian city of Pyatigorsk, Russia and is a contributor to the Central Eurasian Studies Society Blog.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/12/russian-kurds-syria-north-caucasus.html#

Continue reading “Chuck Spinney: Russia & The Kurdish Card”