05 Civil War – Page 50 – Public Intelligence Blog

The Syrian Arab Army seized 281 barrels with chemicals from insurgents at a farm in Banias, Tartus.

Syria: According to Syria media, and reported by Xinhua, the Syrian armed forces discovered a factory for manufacturing and storing toxic chemical weapons inside a “terrorists'” hideout near Damascus.

An official source told the state news agency, SANA, that “the army unit seized amounts of toxic chemical materials, in addition to seizing chlorine substances in containers, some of them foreign-made, while others were Saudi-made (sic).”

The source said that the haul included weapons and scores of mortar shells which were prepared to be filled with chemical materials. SANA published a photo of the captured materials to accompany the report.

Foreign chemicals seized near Damascus. Some of the chemicals originate in Saudi-Arabia

Comment: The published report did not identify which opposition group's hideout was captured. This could be a media stunt, but in publishing photos, the government has made itself vulnerable to demands for independent verification. It would be easy to expose, if it is a hoax.

Syria claims discovery of chemical materials belonging to rebels

2013/07/11

Chuck Spinney: Has the US Lost Its Grand Strategic Mind?

02 Diplomacy, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Proliferation, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Idiocy, Ineptitude, IO Deeds of War, Military, Misinformation & Propaganda, Officers Call, Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests, Secrecy & Politics of Secrecy

As Esam Al-Amin explained here, Mohamad Morsi made some colossal blunders during his one year rule of Egypt, as its democratically elected president. He was elected in what most observers regard as a reasonably fair election.

But the exclusive report by Al Jazeera (also attached below) reveals that the United States — which claims to support democracy in the Middle East and elsewhere — has been actively involved in bankrolling Morsi's opposition, and in so doing has continued its long policy of subverting Islamist democratic victories when they win fair elections (Hamas in 2006) or threaten to win fair elections (Algeria 1991).

Al Jazeera reveals how stark contradictions continue to rip through the three legs of the moral triangle that is US foreign policy — i.e., the contradictions between (1) the values we profess to to the world that we uphold, (2) the values we actually hold as demonstrated by our actions abroad as well as at home (don't forget the neo-fascist, non-accountable, hidden hand the emerging American deep state exemplified by the NSA scandal) and (3) the world we have to deal with deal with (in this case epitomized by the changing conditions of the Arab Spring).

Continue reading “Chuck Spinney: Has the US Lost Its Grand Strategic Mind?”

2013/07/092013/07/09

Neal Rauhauser: Somalia’s al-Shabaab Has a Coup

05 Civil War, 08 Wild Cards, Cultural Intelligence, Peace Intelligence

Somalia’s al-Shabaab Has A Coup

Six months ago I wrote Clearing Somalia Of al-Shabaab. Today I was reading Will Somali Islamist Purge Strengthen al-Shabaab? and I see they have not updated their map of who controls what since then, even though the situation is clearly changing.

Read full post with two graphics.

Phi Beta Iota: We consider Somalia and Yemen to be two perfect candidates for any coalition that wishes to wage peace instead of war. Bury them in solar power, desalinated water, hydroponic agriculture, and free celluar and Internet access. Then get out of the way as they create wealth and with wealth, legitimacy and stability.

2013/07/082013/07/08

Owl: Is DHS A Police State? Or Just Moving Money?

05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, Corruption, Government, Idiocy, Ineptitude

Other Pieces of the US Police State are Moving Into Place on Schedule

“Documents obtained by the Electronic Frontier Foundation from the Homeland Security Department's Customs and Border Protection indicate that the agency is close to finalizing payload standards for its drone aircraft. Among the things the CBP might want to use in its unmanned aircraft: “non-lethal weapons designed to immobilize” targets. In 2009, the agency announced that it had acquired its sixth Predator drone, stationed at an Army Airfield in Arizona.”

As pointed out by a commenter to the article, “For one thing, there are no “non-lethal weapons”. DoD long ago renamed them “less than lethal”, because of the legal liability (rubber bullets can kill, just as a hard hit baseball to the chest can stop the heart) But more significant, DHS is paving the road for internal use of armed drones, against Americans! Or did you for one minute think that these birds are glued to the border, and can only face South?”

More:

Customs and Border Protection Wants to Arm Drones

Continue reading “Owl: Is DHS A Police State? Or Just Moving Money?”

2013/06/252013/06/25

NIGHTWATCH: Taliban Spanks Karzai and CIA

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 08 Wild Cards

Afghanistan: During this Watch, news reporters and other sources in Kabul reported a series of explosions and gunfire in the center of the city, near the presidential palace and the minister of defense building. Witnesses said the presidential palace was under attack.

Kabul police chief Mohammad Zahir said he could not locate the attack, but confirmed that an attack was in progress early on the morning of 25 June, local time.

A Taliban spokesman said the attack targeted the Presidential Palace, the Ministry of Defense and the CIA headquarters.

Comment: This attack might be Taliban retaliation for President Karzai's refusal to join talks with the Taliban in Doha, Qatar. It is not so much a show of force as an exposure of vulnerability. This is a sensational security breach in the most heavily fortified part of Kabul.

Latest reporting indicates only the four attackers were killed, but the outer perimeter of a US facility was breached.

Continue reading “NIGHTWATCH: Taliban Spanks Karzai and CIA”

2013/06/192013/06/19

Chuck Spinney: Imperial Idiocy Wrecks Middle East (Fruits of Treason) — End of Sykes-Picot Betrayal, Five Inter-Mixed Conflicts, Return of the Tribes

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 05 Iran, 06 Russia, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Proliferation, 08 Wild Cards, Commerce, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Idiocy, Ineptitude, IO Deeds of War, Military, Peace Intelligence

Patrick Cockburn has written a very important essay on Syria in the London Review of Books (attached below). The essay is aptly titled but has only a few oblique, albeit important, references to Sykes – Picot Agreement, a document some readers may not familiar with. Let's begin with a little background.

The Sykes-Picot agreement (it was a secret agreement concocted by two bureaucrats) is one of the most cynical documents in the creation of the modern Middle East.

The Encylopaedia Britannica describes it accurately as follows:

It was a … “secret convention made during World War I (1916) between Great Britain and France, with the assent of imperial Russia, for the dismemberment of the Ottoman Empire. The agreement led to the division of Turkish-held Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine into various French- and British-administered areas. The agreement took its name from its negotiators, Sir Mark Sykes

Continue reading “Chuck Spinney: Imperial Idiocy Wrecks Middle East (Fruits of Treason) — End of Sykes-Picot Betrayal, Five Inter-Mixed Conflicts, Return of the Tribes”

2013/06/192013/06/19

Neal Rauhauser: Syrian Refugees in All Directions, Destabilizing Region

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 08 Wild Cards

Post-Assad Syria: Turkey’s Perspective

I just finished reading the Bipartisan Policy Center‘s paper U.S. – Turkish Cooperation Towards A Post Assad Syria. I knew I had been missing nuance but I did not realize how much complexity there was in the relationship between the two countries.

First, Syria has been spilling refugees all over the region. Jordan is poor, Iraq is fragile and even their smaller contingent is causing trouble. Lebanon experiences a fragile balance of ethnic and sectarian tensions. The 420,000 new residents upset that balance and threaten to tip the country into chaos like it had in the 1980s.

Second, the Kurds were mostly at peace with Turkey until Syria fell into disorder. The Syrian government withdrew from Kurdish turf to reduce their interest in the fighting, then it is possible both Syria and Iran had a hand in setting the Kurdish PKK‘s insurgency back in motion against Turkey. Neither Iran nor Syria wants any trouble with the Kurds in their territory, both want to preserve the Shia arc from Iran to Syria, Sunni majority Turkey has been trending more Islamist in its thinking, and has chosen to back the Sunni majority rebellion in Syria.

The Turkish choice to focus on the Sunni aspect of the rebellion rather than an inclusive government that would respect the Alawite, Druze, and Christian minorities is a sticking point for the U.S. If things go badly Syria may become a bigger, badder, bloodier version of what Lebanon was like thirty years ago.

Continue reading “Neal Rauhauser: Syrian Refugees in All Directions, Destabilizing Region”

Category: 05 Civil War

NIGHTWATCH: Syria Documents Rebel Chemical Capability