04 Inter-State Conflict – Page 82 – Public Intelligence Blog

Yemen: The first steps towards criminalising drone strikes, Obama take note

Yemen's National Dialogue Conference decision to criminalise drone strikes is an essential step toward a stable Yemen.

Ghada Eldemellawy

al Ja'zeera, 2 August 2013

“America’s actions are legal” claimed President Obama in a speech on drones earlier this year. It was the latest in a string of attempts made by his administration to justify covert strikes carried out by the US overseas – in countries including the Arab peninsula’s poorest nation, Yemen.

But back in Yemen’s capital Sanaa, it appears the country’s civil society disagrees. Members of Yemen’s National Dialogue Conference (NDC) – a US-supported initiative which will map out Yemen’s post-Arab Spring future – overwhelmingly voted to criminalise drone strikes in Yemen. The Yemeni people have spoken. Now Presidents Hadi and Obama must listen – for their own sake, as much as that of Yemen.

While it is clear that no leader may lawfully authorise another sovereign to slaughter his own people, the decision to criminalise drones strikes sends a clear warning message to Hadi – if the current practice is to continue, it may well lead to a criminal prosecution.

But it is not only the threat of a jail cell that should focus the Yemeni President’s mind. Through his unconditional consent to the use of drones in his country, President Hadi has already alienated many of his supporters, especially those, like him, from the south, which bear the brunt of the strikes.

Read full article with links and photos.

2013/08/032013/08/04

Marcus Aurelius: False Embassy Threat a Preamble to War? + Syria Islam Divide Iran Nuclear Israeli Insanity RECAP Update 1.1 — More Prison Breaks?

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 05 Iran, 06 Russia, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism, 10 Transnational Crime, Corruption, Government, Idiocy, IO Deeds of War, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence

The retired Marine colonel who cued me to this report opined that, “This is a hell of a lot closer to the mark than any Administration or DoS blathering.” I would be totally unsurprised to find him 100% spot-on. I invite your attention to the final para, highlighted. If that is true, the (in)actions of our government may have rendered us incapable, fiscally and operationally, of effective response. Another Task Force Smith, another Kaserine Pass could be the foreseeable result.

Unmasking the embassy threat

Embassy closures are a signal of the rapidly escalated intervention in the region by the US

There is one thing certain about the publicized threat to our embassies; it is not what it is presented to be. To accept the official explanation of a nebulous threat from al Qaeda as the reason for closing our embassies across the Middle East and North Africa is being dangerously naive and simplistic.

This is much more serious than what we are being told, but not for the reasons we are being given. We are seeing the consequences of a long running “Cold War” on two major fronts of political conflict that could escalate into military engagement with proxy nations of world super powers. The world, and life as we know it, could change in an instant should we awaken one morning to the news of bombs flying across the Middle East. That is a very real possibility, as we are now in a heightened proxy war environment. We are standing in a thick forest of dry tinder, and the smallest of sparks could ignite a conflagration the likes of which we have never before seen.

Continue reading “Marcus Aurelius: False Embassy Threat a Preamble to War? + Syria Islam Divide Iran Nuclear Israeli Insanity RECAP Update 1.1 — More Prison Breaks?”

2013/07/28

Marcus Aurelius: Al Qaeda is Back! and The Future of Al Qaeda — Shared Bottom Line? Everything the USG Does Enhances Al Qaeda Appeal!

01 Poverty, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 06 Genocide, 07 Other Atrocities, 09 Terrorism, IO Deeds of War, Lessons, Officers Call

Al Qaeda Is Back

Jailbreaks in Iraq. A surge in Syria. A growing presence in Lebanon. The terrorist group’s influence is on the rise, says Bruce Riedel.

TheDailyBeast.com, July 26, 2013

Two spectacular al Qaeda prison breaks in Iraq, freeing over 500 of its members in two separate prisons simultaneously this week, demonstrate the group is back with a vengeance. Al Qaeda’s Iraq branch is also the moving force behind the jihadist success in Syria. The resurgence of al Qaeda in Iraq has sobering implications for what is likely to follow the drawdown of NATO forces in Afghanistan for the al Qaeda mother ship in Pakistan.

Read full article.

The Future of Al Qaeda

PDF (88 Pages): 2013-07-28 Future of Al Qaeda

EXTRACT:

Th e speed of change throughout the Middle East and North Africa since 2011 has demonstrated that a policy of Soviet-era containment manifested since the Cold War by support for repressive dictatorships that suppressed, rather than emancipated their populations, catalysed the appeal of Al-Qaeda. Instead, as the Arab Spring has shown, populations desire economic growth, employment and good governance in the place of the defi cient development outcomes, conflict and militancy that characterise life in so much of this region. As the recently released US National Strategy for Counterterrorism elucidates, a comprehensive approach to tackling Al-Qaeda must include “objectives such as promoting responsive governance and respect for the rights of citizens, which will reduce Al-Qaeda’s resonance and relevancy.”149

2013/07/21

Neal Rauhauser: Syrian Conflict Spreads, Kurds Fighting Islamists

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 08 Wild Cards

Coming back to work topics after a weekend of covering Twitter's endless nerdwars I am pretty horrified by the news coming out of Syria.

Ethnic Kurds are the largest group of stateless people in the world. Their population straddles the meeting point for Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. I read a few weeks ago that the Assad regime had recognized early on that Kurdish disinterest was in their best efforts and they left the far northeast provinces alone. That is apparently changing.

Islamist-Kurdish fighting spreads in rebel-held Syria

The new round of fighting broke out in Tel Abyad, a border town near Turkey in the rebel-held Raqqa province. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said clashes began after Kurdish militias in the area discovered fighters from an al Qaeda-linked rebel group trying to rig one of their bases with explosives.

Read full post with more graphics and links.

2013/07/192013/07/19

Graphic: Russian Military Districts — Israel as Target

04 Inter-State Conflict, 06 Russia, 08 Wild Cards

Source

2013/07/17

Neal Rauhauser: Are Syrian and Iraqi Conflicts Merging? Is Iran Gaining a Corridor to the Mediterranean?

01 Poverty, 03 Environmental Degradation, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Proliferation, 09 Terrorism

UN envoy: Iraq and Syrian conflicts are merging

That headline appeared in my inbox earlier and I have been dreading it. The Syrian civil war has spilled over into Lebanon, it’s encroaching on Turkey’s territory, and it’s set off troubles in neighboring Iraq, which are now merging into an end to end regional threat.

Let’s take a look at how things got this way. The Ottoman empire laid claim to Syria and Iraq between 1512 and 1566.

Phi Beta Iota: A well illustrated historical overview with an itemization of current country by country one liners.

2013/07/162013/07/16

NIGHTWATCH: Syria Documents Rebel Chemical Capability

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Proliferation, IO Deeds of War

The Syrian Arab Army seized 281 barrels with chemicals from insurgents at a farm in Banias, Tartus.

Syria: According to Syria media, and reported by Xinhua, the Syrian armed forces discovered a factory for manufacturing and storing toxic chemical weapons inside a “terrorists'” hideout near Damascus.

An official source told the state news agency, SANA, that “the army unit seized amounts of toxic chemical materials, in addition to seizing chlorine substances in containers, some of them foreign-made, while others were Saudi-made (sic).”

The source said that the haul included weapons and scores of mortar shells which were prepared to be filled with chemical materials. SANA published a photo of the captured materials to accompany the report.

Foreign chemicals seized near Damascus. Some of the chemicals originate in Saudi-Arabia

Comment: The published report did not identify which opposition group's hideout was captured. This could be a media stunt, but in publishing photos, the government has made itself vulnerable to demands for independent verification. It would be easy to expose, if it is a hoax.

Syria claims discovery of chemical materials belonging to rebels

Category: 04 Inter-State Conflict

Berto Jongman: Yemen Criminalizes Drone Strikes