Worth a Look: Eight Books on Securing the Peace and the New Meme “Responsibility to Protect”

Peace Intelligence
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Timely and pathbreaking, Securing the Peace is the first book to explore the complete spectrum of civil war terminations, including negotiated settlements, military victories by governments and rebels, and stalemates and ceasefires. Examining the outcomes of all civil war terminations since 1940, Monica Toft develops a general theory of postwar stability, showing how third-party guarantees may not be the best option. She demonstrates that thorough security-sector reform plays a critical role in establishing peace over the long term.

Much of the thinking in this area has centered on third parties presiding over the maintenance of negotiated settlements, but the problem with this focus is that fewer than a quarter of recent civil wars have ended this way. Furthermore, these settlements have been precarious, often resulting in a recurrence of war. Toft finds that military victory, especially victory by rebels, lends itself to a more durable peace. She argues for the importance of the security sector–the police and military–and explains that victories are more stable when governments can maintain order. Toft presents statistical evaluations and in-depth case studies that include El Salvador, Sudan, and Uganda to reveal that where the security sector remains robust, stability and democracy are likely to follow.  [Phi Beta Iota: when rebels win, absent outside subsidies, they generally held the moral high ground to begin with–Saudi Arabia is a good example of a regime ready to fall hard.]

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Virginia Page Fortna has written a compelling and courageous book–compelling in the reinforcing comparisons that it makes between aggregate data and case-based research, and courageous in its first-person interviews, conducted with those who perpetrated as well as ended civil wars. The book bridges the worlds of the high-flying ‘quant' who sees only forests of data, and the ground-based case researcher knee-deep in political leaf litter. Drawing particular strength from the oft-ignored perspective of those on whose behalf peacekeepers do their work, Fortna's convergent analyses advance our understanding not only of how peacekeeping works but why.

Continue reading “Worth a Look: Eight Books on Securing the Peace and the New Meme “Responsibility to Protect””

Journal: Haiti–Italian Agrees with Brzezinki–A Mess

08 Wild Cards, Peace Intelligence

Please God, Send Us a Leader Who Understands Intelligence-Led Emergency Response and Believes Deeply in Stabilization & Reconstruction as a Righteous Multinational Engagement Mission

US criticised over Haiti aid as reconstruction talks begin

After two days of observations Mr Bertolaso told a RAI television interviewer that the relief effort showed that the international community was unable to mount an adequate disaster response and called for the appointment of a civilian international humanitarian co-ordinator.

He said the aid organisations, including United Nations bodies, wrongly thought Haiti was “another humanitarian catastrophe like Cambodia or Rwanda. They thought they could bring something to eat and drink and the problem would be resolved.”.

He added that the US military effort was “inefficient” and that troops were not trained to run an aid or disaster relief operation. “No-one is giving orders,” he said.

Asked by Lucia Annunziata, the RAI interviewer, if the rescue effort had been “a flop”, Mr Bertolaso — who holds Cabinet rank — said that the American decision to send large quantities of troops, cargo planes and aid was commendable. “However, when confronted by a situation of chaos, they tend to confuse military intervention with what should be an emergency operation, which cannot be entrusted to the armed forces. We are missing a leader, a co-ordination capacity that goes beyond military discipline.”

See Also:

Journal: Haiti–Perspective of Georgie Anne Geyer

Journal: Haiti EYES ON Interview with William McNulty

Journal: Haiti Op-Ed, Maps and Data, SOUTHCOM

Journal: Haiti Health Situation, Short-Term View

Journal: Zbigniew Brzezinski BRILLIANT on Haiti Now

Journal: Haiti History, Interim Report, Prognosis

Journal: Haiti Rolling Directory from 12 January 2010

Journal: Haiti–Perspective of Georgie Anne Geyer

08 Wild Cards, Cultural Intelligence, Earth Intelligence, Ethics, Government, Non-Governmental, Peace Intelligence

CAN HAITI SURVIVE?

The United States and many other nations across the globe are sending water, food and troops to benighted Haiti. Charity groups and NGOs from New York to San Francisco are collecting money. The French are calling for a “conference on Haiti's reconstruction and development.” At least in these first few weeks following the horrific earthquake that shook the once-beautiful Caribbean isle, it seems that the world wants to give Haiti everything — except the truth.

Safety Copy of Entire Opinion Below the Line  +  Full Story Online (While It Lasts)
Continue reading “Journal: Haiti–Perspective of Georgie Anne Geyer”

Journal: Haiti History, Interim Report, Prognosis

01 Poverty, 07 Other Atrocities, Communities of Practice, Ethics, Key Players, Methods & Process, Peace Intelligence

To Heal Haiti, Look to History, Not Nature (New York Times)

On Jan. 1, 1804, when Dessalines created the Haitian flag by tearing the white middle from the French tricolor, he achieved what even Spartacus could not: he had led to triumph the only successful slave revolt in history. Haiti became the world’s first independent black republic and the second independent nation in the Western Hemisphere.

Alas, the first such republic, the United States, despite its revolutionary creed that “all men are created equal,” looked upon these self-freed men with shock, contempt and fear. Indeed, to all the great Western trading powers of the day — much of whose wealth was built on the labor of enslaved Africans — Haiti stood as a frightful example of freedom carried too far. American slaveholders desperately feared that Haiti’s fires of revolt would overleap those few hundred miles of sea and inflame their own human chattel.

Haiti Numbers (Daily Gleaner Canada)

* Number of homeless in Haiti: 2 million, European Commission estimate.

* Total death toll roughly 200,000, estimate by the European Union, quoting Haitian officials.

* Other aid: UN World Food Programme has distributed 1.4 million ready-to-eat food rations, says 100 million will be needed over next 30 days to reach three million people in desperate need.

Major aftershock hits Haiti; assessment team making contact (Baptist Press)

The team arrived in Port-au-Prince Wednesday (Jan. 20) after a 17-hour, 160-mile trip in a four-vehicle caravan from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.

More than 40 significant aftershocks have hit since the Jan. 12 quake killed an estimated 200,000 people, injured 250,000 and left 1.5 million homeless.

The truck drivers are less and less willing to [drive into the city] as the situation in Port deteriorates.

Officials are concerned that the desperation people feel will boil over into violence. Looters by the hundreds have been fighting each other with broken bottles, clubs and other weapons over whatever goods they can still find in damaged stores.

Haiti DR planning slated Jan. 26 in Miami (Baptist Press)

Another assessment team member, Don Gann, disaster relief director for the Mississippi Baptist Convention, said the situation in Haiti remains fluid, chaotic and difficult. “[T]he traffic in Port-au-Prince is unbelievable,” Gann said. “Today, it took us three hours to go seven miles.

“There are security issues the teams need to be aware of. The situation is still precarious. A medical team or a feeding team could be overrun just because the people here have such great needs.”

Another assessment team member, Don Gann, disaster relief director for the Mississippi Baptist Convention, said the situation in Haiti remains fluid, chaotic and difficult. “[T]he traffic in Port-au-Prince is unbelievable,” Gann said. “Today, it took us three hours to go seven miles. ”

Haiti Earthquake update: cardboard communities

In this Haiti Earthquake update, The Christian Science Monitor reports that Haitians are building new homes after the earthquake with little more than cardboard and plastic in refugee camps. It's estimated that there are 250 such camps in existence.

The rich have left Haiti's capital city of Port-Au-Prince, leaving the poor to fend for themselves. Haiti Earthquake relief efforts are building, but with 3 million people in need of aide and a crumbled infrastructure, it's a challenge.

Update From Haiti: A Little Hope Today

Today felt like we made more progress and were able to create a little hope. We received some food from the United Nations and the Sisters of Charity, but most isn't getting to the people. Most is still in warehouses

Updates on the Crisis in Haiti

The volume of cases was truly overwhelming. We ran 2-3 operating rooms for 12-14 hours at a time, and didn’t even make a dent in the case load.

He added that “it was somewhat unclear” who was in charge of bringing patients injured to the hospital from hte earthquake zone. “

Update on the Progress of the US “Invasion”

Members of the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit launched two helicopters to resupply a U.N. distribution site with water.

Then came the earthquake victims, injured one week ago, ferried onboard by several helicopters. In all, the ship took in 19 patients after getting three Tuesday.

Phi Beta Iota Prognosis: In our over-all experience, absent a sea change in how the world community is approaching this, at least half the aid will be stolen or misappropriated; half the remaining aid dollars and materials will never get to the Hiatians at all.  The prospects of a plague, riots, and other human break-downs increase every day.  At this point in time neither the US nor Brazil nor the Cubans appear to have any of the following:

1.  Multinational Information-Sharing and Sense-Making Center

2.  Multinational Strategy, Operations Plan, or Tactical Lines of Engagement

3.  Phase Plan for leveraging every air and sea entry point that makes sense

4.  Phase Plan for actually getting minimal water and food to each of three million people for each of the next 30, 60, 90 days

5.  Strategy, Campaign Plan, or Logistics for applying aid dollars to the bottom-up reconstruction of Haiti in a manner that aggressively relocates 400,000 people not to temporary camps but to permanent opportunities with a virtually infinite supply of building materials aided by every Red Hat, See Bee and Army Engineer unit we can muster.  This needs a Berlin Airlift degree of seriousness, a Marine Expeditionary Force level of complex simultaneous attention to detail, and a Whole of Government Multinational Engagement mind-set that we are simply not seeing.

6.  We know that the US Government is trying to share imagery and other information with selected partners both national and non-governmental but we don't see a coherent island-wide Information Operations (IO)  endeavor, and we see ZERO in the way of “Strategic Communications” outlining in militarily precise terms where the bodies are, what percentage have been fed, etcetera.  The absence of this information causes us great sadness, for it suggests that in all probability the US military is not treating this matter with the deep seriousness that it merits from a multinational public information-sharing and sense-making point of view.

Journal: Haiti Rolling Directory from 12 January 2010

Worth a Look: Books on China in Africa

02 China, 08 Wild Cards, 5 Star, Commercial Intelligence, Communities of Practice, Country/Regional, Cultural Intelligence, Peace Intelligence
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Africa and China are now immersed in their third and most transformative era of heavy engagement, one that promises to do more for economic growth and poverty alleviation than anything attempted by Western colonialism or international aid programs.Robert Rotberg and his Chinese, African, and other colleagues discuss this important trend and specify its likely implications. Among the specific topics tackled here are China's interest in African oil; military and security relations; the influx and goals of Chinese aid to sub-Saharan Africa; human rights issues; and China's overall strategy in the region. China's insatiable demand for energy and raw materials responds to sub-Saharan Africa's relatively abundant supplies of unprocessed metals, diamonds, and gold, while offering a growing market for Africa's agriculture and light manufactures.As this book illustrates, this evolving symbiosis could be the making of Africa, the poorest and most troubled continent, while it further powers China's expansive economic machine.

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One of the most worrying elements to emerge from these pages is a consistent lack of transparency in all these Chinese ventures. “Not a single Chinese official in the region would agree to meet us,” the authors write. Their requests for interviews with African officials and Chinese managers were routinely ignored, access to work sites barred and information on contractual terms withheld. Domestic parliamentarians have been similarly stymied, unable to uncover even basic details of projects they were promised would transform their countries. None of this bodes well on a continent where top-level sleaze and capital flight have already leached away billions of dollars earmarked for development. Opaque, unscrutinized contracts threaten more of the same. Michel and Beuret are admirably even-handed, unsparing in their attacks on the cynical agendas and sad outcomes of past French, British and U.S. intervention.

Phi Beta Iota: Above two on order and will be reviewed soon.

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“As the chief China economist for Royal Bank of Scotland in Hong Kong and a former resident of both Beirut and Damascus, Mr Simpfendorfer is well placed to tackle the subject. But although he is a professional economist, what sets Mr Simpfendorfer's book aside from the usual run of publications about the mainland's rise is not his command of macroeconomic statistics, but his grasp of how the expanding relationship between China and the Arab world works at the personal level.”   – Tom Holland, South China Morning Post

“Despite the global economic crisis, the trajectory of the Arab and Chinese economies still match the soaring skylines of Dubai and Shanghai. Furthermore, as Ben Simpfendorfer bracingly illustrates, these are not isolated events but rather the resurrection of a Silk Road symbiosis. For all the region's troubles, this book places the Persian Gulf back where it geographically belongs: at the center of Eurasia and bending towards the overwhelming gravity of China.”   – Parag Khanna, author of  The Second World–Empires and Influence in the New Global Order and Senior Research Fellow at the New America Foundation

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A convincing economic, political and cultural analysis of waning Western dominance and the rise of China and a new paradigm of modernity. Jacques (The Politics of Thatcherism) takes the pulse of the nation poised to become, by virtue of its scale and staggering rate of growth, the biggest market in the world. Jacques points to the decline of American hegemony and outlines specific elements of China's rising global power and how these are likely to influence international relations in the future. He imagines a world where China's distinct brand of modernity, rooted firmly in its ancient culture and traditions, will have a profound influence on attitudes toward work, family and even politics that will become a counterbalance to and eventually reverse the one-way flow of Westernization. He suggests that while China's economic prosperity may not necessarily translate into democracy, China's increased self-confidence is allowing it to project its political and cultural identity ever more widely as time goes on. As comprehensive as it is compelling, this brilliant book is crucial reading for anyone interested in understanding where the we are and where we are going.  Publishers Weekly

For the better part of 15 years, with one tragic interruption, he dug and dug and then transformed his scholarly spadework into accessible, inviting prose. The result is “When China Rules the World,” a compelling and thought-provoking analysis of global trends that defies the common Western assumption that, to be fully modern, a nation must become democratic, financially transparent and legally accountable. Jacques argues persuasively that China is on track to take over as the world's dominant power and that, when it does, it will make the rules, on its own terms, with little regard for what came before.  Washington Post

Continue reading “Worth a Look: Books on China in Africa”

Journal Haiti: Silly Question–Regional Traffic Management? Strategic Resettlement?

Peace Intelligence
Click to See Full Slide

Here are the viable air and sea landing points for Haiti, trying to leave Dominican Republic out of it, they have enough problems.

Below are a few “Big Air” triage points, with corresponding seaport triage that can then be migrated to small boats, landing craft, etcetera.

So here is the silly question…has anybody thought to set up a regional traffic management plan that triages big air into little air and big boats into small boats?

Click to See Full Slide

Has anyone set up a bottom-up Range of Needs Table?

Has anyone convened a Haitian Population Resettlement Council that goes straight to moving 400,000 to new zones where free lumber, bricks, cement and so on can be brought in by landing craft?

This would appear to be a huge opportunity to think before acting, and to then execute several strategic moves that lift Haiti out of poverty rather than just covering up the mess in the short term.  Civil Affairs Brigade could really make a difference here, along with STRONG ANGEL  It is very rugged terrain but the ocean is open and people can be moved by landing craft and ambhibious ships.   IOHO.

Continue reading “Journal Haiti: Silly Question–Regional Traffic Management? Strategic Resettlement?”

Journal: Haiti Update 22 January 2010 AM

Peace Intelligence

In Need of Port Repairs, Haiti Relocating 400,000

PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti  —  Haitian officials are planning a massive relocation of 400,000 people from makeshift camps to the outskirts of the capital as the U.S. government tackles repairs to the damaged main port — dual efforts to help residents survive the aftermath of the catastrophic earthquake.

The plan to temporarily relocate thousands is aimed at staving off the spread of disease at hundreds of squalid settlements across the city where homeless families have no sanitation and live under tents, tarps or nothing at all.

As aid begins to flow, Haiti considers fate of millions of homeless

Haiti's main port reopens for relief vessels: Haiti's relief pipeline shifted from the air to the sea as the U.S. military opened the island's main port

Phi Beta Iota: The port “re-opening” is so severely over-stated as to call into question the sanity of those implying this to the media (if they did–if not, this should be publicly corrected.  One pier with cracks handling one truck at a time and extremely limited fuel bunkerage is not “open.” ) All of this was known when we posted CAB 21 Peace Jumper Sequence of Events.  The US military appears to be treating this as a casual “one thing at a time” series of decisions instead of doing what we suggested in the first place: get a grip on reality, open two C-130 airfields, do massive airdrops of water, food, plastic, and lumber, and think creatively–for example, roll out every Sea Bee, Red Hat, and Army engineering unit, ramp up the second port on the far end of the island and start moving people in that direction, finish Route 9 the way we promised and then reneged ten years ago, triage all cargo at point of loading (push the information perimeter out and create a needs-driven bottom-up Reverse TIPFID).  And so on.  False reassurances at this point are going to assure a plague-ridden calamity in the next few weeks. From where we sit it is obvious the US Intelligence Community is as useless in Haiti as it has been in Afghanistan.  It's time for DoD to try something new, what we have is not working.  Haiti is an open source information problem.  Haiti is also a Strategic Communications and Multinational Engagement challenge, a rare opportunity to test drive STRONG ANGEL  for real and set the stage for truly multinational Stabilization & Reconstruciton operations on a come as you are basis.

Journal: Haiti Rolling Update

See also:

Review: Catastrophe & Culture–The Anthropology of Disaster

Review: The Upside of Down–Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization

Worth a Look: Book Reviews on Leadership for Epoch B

Worth a Look: Book Reviews on Stabilization & Reconstruction