Peace Intelligence – Page 447 – Public Intelligence Blog

Johann Hari: The three fallacies that have driven the war in Afghanistan

Case for escalating the war is based on premises that turn to dust on inspection

Johann Hari Independent Wednesday, 21 October 2009

Is Barack Obama about to drive his Presidency into a bloody ditch strewn with corpses? The President is expected any day now to announce his decision about the future of the war in Afghanistan. He knows US and British troops have now been stationed in the hell-mouth of Helmand longer than the First and Second World Wars combined – yet the mutterings from the marble halls of Washington DC suggest he may order a troop escalation.

Obama has to decide now whether to side with the American people and the Afghan people calling for a rapid reduction in US force, or with a small military clique demanding a ramping-up of the conflict. The populations of both countries are in close agreement. The latest Washington Post poll shows that 51 per cent of Americans say the war is “not worth fighting” and that ending the foreign occupation will “reduce terrorism”. Only 27 per cent disagree. At the other end of the gun-barrel, 77 per cent of Afghans in the latest BBC poll say the on-going US air strikes are “unacceptable”, and the US troops should only remain if they are going to provide reconstruction assistance rather than bombs.

Continue reading “Journal: Demise of Obama in Afghanistan Part II”

2009/10/212009/10/21

Event: 27-28 Oct 09 Denmark International Workshop on Counterterrorism and Open Source Intelligence

09 Terrorism, Communities of Practice, Ethics, Key Players, Peace Intelligence

The International Workshop on Counterterrorism and Open Source Intelligence is one of the most significant events in the field of counterterrorism and open source intelligence today.

The workshop is an opportunity for researchers, professionals, law enforcement officers, intelligence agencies, and industry decision makers to establish professional relationships and serves as a platform for the formation of international cooperation.

Continue reading “Event: 27-28 Oct 09 Denmark International Workshop on Counterterrorism and Open Source Intelligence”

2009/10/212009/10/21

Journal: Strategic Analysis & Culture Matter

08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Government, Military, Peace Intelligence

Full Story Online

The Afghanistan Problem

The huge cultural misunderstandings between Western forces and the Afghan people make it unlikely any counterinsurgency mission in the countryside will succeed.

By Gilles Dorronsoro

In the countryside, Westerners are essentially perceived as corrupt and threatening to traditional Afghan or Muslim values. Contrary to our self-perception, the villagers see the foreigners as the main providers of insecurity. The presence of coalition troops means IEDs, ambushes and airstrikes, and consequently a higher probability of being killed, maimed or robbed of a livelihood. Any incident quickly reinforces the divide between locals and outsiders, and the Afghan media provide extensive and graphic coverage of botched airstrikes and injured civilians.
Continue reading “Journal: Strategic Analysis & Culture Matter”

2009/10/152009/10/16

Journal: Afghanistan, Biden, Baer, & Brains

03 India, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 10 Security, Communities of Practice, Ethics, History, Peace Intelligence, Policy, Reform, Strategy, True Cost

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Rethink Afghanistan Part Six

Robert Baer, a former CIA field operative says, “The notion that we're in Afghanistan to make our country safer is just complete bullshit… what it's doing is causing us greater danger, no question about it. Because the more we fight in Afghanistan, the more the conflict is pushed across the border into Pakistan, the more we destabilize Pakistan, the more likely it is that a fundamentalist government will take over the army — and we'll have Al-Qaeda like groups with nuclear weapons.”

Full Story Online

U.S. troop funds diverted to pet projects

Senators diverted $2.6 billion in funds in a defense spending bill to pet projects largely at the expense of accounts that pay for fuel, ammunition and training for U.S. troops. . . . . . .

Full Story Online

Why Joe Biden Should Resign

Citing a Newsweek story: “Can I just clarify a factual point? How much will we spend this year on Afghanistan?” Someone provided the figure: $65 billion. “And how much will we spend on Pakistan?” Another figure was supplied: $2.25 billion. “Well, by my calculations that's a 30-to-1 ratio in favor of Afghanistan. So I have a question. Al Qaeda is almost all in Pakistan, and Pakistan has nuclear weapons. And yet for every dollar we're spending in Pakistan, we're spending $30 in Afghanistan. Does that make strategic sense?” The White House Situation Room fell silent.

Continue reading “Journal: Afghanistan, Biden, Baer, & Brains”

2009/10/10

Journal: “Pakistan Act” Weakens National Security

05 Civil War, 10 Security, Collective Intelligence, Government, Peace Intelligence

In opposition to the Pakistan Act, sponsored byBarbara Boxer [D-CA], Thomas Carper [D-DE], Robert Casey [D-PA], Hillary Clinton [D-NY], Christopher Dodd [D-CT], Richard Durbin [D-IL], Charles Hagel [R-NE], John Kerry [D-MA], Richard Lugar [R-IN], Sheldon Whitehouse [D-RI], Ron Paul offers some thoughts worthy of consideration.

Phi Beta Iota: The Republic is now confronted with both an Executive and a Legislative Branch that make decisions without regard to strategy, holistic reality-based appreciations, or public discourse on costs and benefits. The Administration is proposing, and Congress is approving, without serious thought and without regard to the best interests of the American public. Thomas Jefferson and James Madison are turning in their graves.

2009/10/092009/10/22

Journal: Nobel Peace Prize Implodes (Update 5)

Peace Intelligence

Original Announcement: Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize “for his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples,” the Nobel Committee said.

“The Nobel Committee has in particular looked at Obama’s vision and work toward a world without atomic weapons,” Thorbjoern Jagland, chairman of the five-member Nobel committee said in an interview broadcast on Norway’s TV2 today. “Obama has as president created a new climate in international politics.”

Washington Post's Last Word: Only two other sitting presidents have won the Nobel peace prize, and they both won it for actual achievements. Theodore Roosevelt won in 1906 for his role in ending the Russo-Japanese war and Woodrow Wilson won in 1919 for founding the League of Nations and helping frame the post-World War I peace.

An aspirational Nobel is designed to promote a cause, and sometimes it backfires spectacularly.

Martin LeFevre: Obama’s Foreboding Nobel (new)

Obama still has time to reconsider accepting peace prize (new)

Obama and the Nobel Prize: When War becomes Peace, When the Lie becomes the Truth (new)

Norwegian Draws Fire over Nobel Choice

Another Fine Mess: Comics Whack Obama

Balance of Opinion: The impact of the prize

Obama's Nobel Is Unconstitutional

Continue reading “Journal: Nobel Peace Prize Implodes (Update 5)”

2009/10/072009/10/07

Journal: Chuck Spinney and Pat Buchanan on Groupthinking Apparat Moves to Finish Off Obama

05 Civil War, 10 Security, Ethics, Government, Military, Peace Intelligence

Chuck Spinney Sends: The attached article, “Generals Open New Front in Washington,” by Pat Buchanan describes how the time honored practice of Versailles Groupthink is now closing in to circumscribe President Obama's strategic options in Afghanistan and Pakistan, much as it did to Lyndon Johnson during Vietnam.

Note how the “strategic” options for Afghanistan are boiling down to a consensus view of an either/or decision. Either a large escalation of US ground forces or an escalation of destabilizing Predator attacks, particularly in Pakistan, or a compromise on some combination of the two. In all cases, there will be a large increase in the size of the Afghan Army. That questionable enterprise is taken as a given by the emerging consensus view. If Buchanan is right about this either/or choice … Obama is being set up big time by advisors, because, as near as I can tell, Obama has no access to outside or dissenting views. There is no third or fourth way, because there is no one in the role of George Ball to just say no (who LBJ ignored much to his chagrin), and there is no one on Capital Hill with political or military smarts or the stature to shape a third, more practical alternative. Continue reading “Journal: Chuck Spinney and Pat Buchanan on Groupthinking Apparat Moves to Finish Off Obama”