Obama in a Strategic & Intellectual Vacuum

02 Diplomacy, Advanced Cyber/IO, Analysis, Counter-Oppression/Counter-Dictatorship Practices, Government, InfoOps (IO), Intelligence (government), Methods & Process, Officers Call, Strategy
Who, Me?

No intelligence, no strategy, no nothing.  For this we pay taxes?

In U.S. Signals to Egypt, Obama Straddled a Rift (NYT)

Summary:  State still loves dictators, has no idea what is going on with the young and the restless.  Intelligence is no where to be found.  Bottom line is that the President, who appears to have had the right instincts, is being undermined by a government that can only be considered to be uninformed and incoherent.

Phi Beta Iota: From David Abshire to Jim Locher to Tony Zinni and Robert Steele, we have long known of the strategic vacuum surrounding the President.  You cannot be an effective President (theatrics aside) without getting a grip on reality, having a Strategic Analytic Model, and demanding Whole of Government harmonization deeply rooted in 360 degree multi-cultural intelligence.  None of that exists today within the US Government.

See Also:

Intelligence for the President–AND Everyone Else, as published in CounterPunch, Weekend Edition, February 27 – 1 March 2009

Fixing the White House and National Intelligence, International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, Spring 2010; As published:

Human Intelligence (HUMINT): All Humans, All Minds, All the Time (US Army Strategic Studies Institute, June 2010

Reference: Frog 6 Guidance 2010-2020

Review: The Battle for Peace–A Frontline Vision of America’s Power and Purpose (Hardcover)

Review: Preventing World War III–A Realistic Grand Strategy

Reference: EU’s Afghan Police Mission

White Papers
PDF 50 Pages

Phi Beta Iota: NATO training of Afghan police a failure.  The inability of all NATO participants, not just the US participants, to understand the Afghan culture and train, equip, and organize accordingly, is the primary reason for the continued failure at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels.  Remarkably, the OSS.Net Afghanistan study is still in demand, as the only other useful document now available is the USMC culture study.  Combined with the 120 day rotation cycle and the absolute naivete of those being cycled in, Afghanistan is a failure across the board.

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Continue reading “Reference: EU's Afghan Police Mission”

Afghan Imams to Petraeus: And take Karzai…

Cultural Intelligence
DefDog Recommends...

So much for our COIN strategy.  I knew it wouldn't work because it is a
hollow approach.  You cannot get to the population living in reinforced
garrisons while the rank and file walk the streets.  When you are all
armored up and travel through a town in vehicles whose drivers pay no
attention what is going on you will loose the support of the public….and
that is a daily occurrence in AF….

Afghan imams wage political battle against U.S.

Joshua Partlow and Habib Zahori

Washington Post, Feburary 17, 2011

For the U.S. government, and for the 100,000 American troops fighting in
Afghanistan, the messages delivered last Friday could hardly have been
worse.

Under the weathered blue dome of Kabul's largest mosque, a distinguished
preacher, Enayatullah Balegh, pledged support for “any plan that can
defeat” foreign military forces in Afghanistan, denouncing what he called “the political power of these children of Jews.”

Across town, a firebrand imam named Habibullah was even more blunt.

“Let these jackals leave this country,” the preacher, who uses only one name, declared of foreign troops. “Let these brothers of monkeys, gorillas and pigs leave this country. The people of Afghanistan should determine their own fate.”

See Also:

Is General Petraeus about to step down?

Petraeus Warns of a Bloody Spring in Afghanistan

Deferring to Petraeus, NIE Failed to Register Taliban Growth

General: Heart of Afghanistan insurgency beaten

Barbara McNamara: Charlie Allen a “Loose Cannon”

Government
Richard Wright

When I wrote of Barbara McNamara and her views of Diane Roark, I should have mentioned that she viewed Charlie Allen as intrusive as well and referred to him as a loose cannon more than once. Her quote for the 9/11 Commission interview that, “Charlie Allen brings an energy level – you never ask him to do something that you do not want done” was not meant as a compliment. Allen’s big sin like that of Diane Roark was that he refused to be duped by the technical and rhetorical smoke screens NSA throws up when confronting outsiders. Like Roark, Allen had his own sources at the Fort and had enough technical savvy to see through the evasions and deceptions with which he was often greeted.  NSA found and probably still finds this unpardonable.

Phi Beta Iota: Integrity is coming back into style.  If there is one thing Charlie Allen is not, it is a “loose cannon” in the pejorative sense of the word that his low-rent detractor suggests.  This is the man who blew the lid off the White House on Iran-Contra.  Integrity.  Not just nice to have–essential.

Structuring Strategic Decision Support Intelligence

Government
Richard Wright

According to a 16 February piece in the New York Times by Mark Lander, “President Obama ordered his advisers last August to produce a secret report on unrest in the Arab world, which concluded that without sweeping political changes, countries from Bahrain to Yemen were ripe for popular revolt, administration officials said Wednesday.”  Participants included experts from the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC), State Department and, probably, experts from outside the government. The report was classified because of its political sensitivity. Although President Obama consulted with experts from the IC, the report was produced outside of IC analysis and reporting processes.

This is actually the third such independent report that the Obama administration has asked to be produced outside of IC channels. The other two were produced under the leadership of Brookings Institute scholar and former CIA Officer, Bruce Riedel and dealt with South Asia. Riedel’s reports were produced largely from open sources and indeed were later turned into quite important books [Deadly Embrace: Pakistan, America, and the Future of Global Jihad; and The Search for Al Qaeda: Its Leadership, Ideology, and Future]. There is every reason to suspect that the August report on unrest in the Middle East was also a product of mainly open source material.

Continue reading “Structuring Strategic Decision Support Intelligence”

US Intelligence Unwitting of Most Open Sources

Government
DefDog Recommends...

From my friends at Intelligence Online….

Used extensively by protesters in Egypt and Tunisia, Facebook and other social networking websites contain a wealth of useful intelligence.  However, knowing how to exploit that information is another matter. During a hearing of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on February 4, Senator Dianne Feinstein complained to Stephanie O’Sullivan, number 2 at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, about the U.S. intelligence community’s failure to anticipate the Egyptian crisis by analysing information that was freely available on Facebook. On January 28, British MPs made the same complaint about Britain’s intelligence agencies to Gus O’Donnell, Prime Minister David Cameron’s cabinet secretary. Agencies on both sides of the Atlantic are now busy playing catch-up with the Facebook generation.

Phi Beta Iota: The tragedy of the unintelligent US Intelligence Community will not be fixed until one of two things happen: the President realizes he is being screwed; or the DNI realizes he is overlooking the ONE THING he can get right this time around.  From 1988 onwards, with every Commission from Aspin-Brown onwards, each DNI has been told in no uncertain terms what needs to be done.  For Jim Clapper, one of the finest thinkers we've every known, to refuse for one minute to take the simple step of asking the long-standing leaders of the OSINT movement–Steele, Markowitz, Dumaine, with Hock, Reuser, Benavides, Edwards, Bjore, and a few others completing the inner council–is difficult to comprehend.

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Continue reading “US Intelligence Unwitting of Most Open Sources”

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