08 Wild Cards – Page 162 – Public Intelligence Blog

Phi Beta Iota: Below the line is an excellent overview from NIGHTWATCH. Here are the key points:

1. Muslim Brotherhood was caught by surprise, not just the US Intelligence Community.

2. This is a revolution of young people focused on fundamentals, NOT an Islamic uprising.

3. There is no overt anti-US aspect within the young, but Hezbollah and others are trying to tie the US to the dictators it supports–left unsaid is that if the US cannot turn on a DIME (pun intented) it will be skewered with its own sword.

4. Dictator Mubarak may be shopping for an exile estate in Egypt.

INSIGHT: The US Government has no one thinking strategically–certainly not the Goldman Sachs lobbyist now enjoying the corner office and pretending to be national security advisor to the President, and certainly not the Department of State, which has lost its one strategic thinker back to Princeton and has no bench. NOW IS THE TIME for President Barack Obama to decide he wants to create a Smart Nation with Whole of Government strategy and operations resting on a foundation of intelligent intelligence. See ON INTELLIGENCE: Open Letter to the President.

Continue reading “EGYPT: The Young, Not the Brotherhood, Anti-US?”

2011/02/07

Report Casts Doubt on Taliban’s Ties With Al Qaeda

08 Wild Cards, Analysis, Cultural Intelligence, Government, History, Intelligence (government), Policy, Strategy

N.Y.U. Report Casts Doubt on Taliban’s Ties With Al Qaeda

By CARLOTTA GALL

Published: February 6, 2011

KABUL, Afghanistan — The Afghan Taliban have been wrongly perceived as close ideological allies of Al Qaeda, and they could be persuaded to renounce the global terrorist group, according to a report to be published Monday by New York University.

The report goes on to say that there was substantial friction between the groups’ leaders before the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and that hostility has only intensified.

The authors, Alex Strick van Linschoten and Felix Kuehn, have worked in Afghanistan for years and edited the autobiography of a Taliban diplomat, many of whose ideas are reflected in the report. The authors are among a small group of experts who say the only way to end the war in Afghanistan is to begin peace overtures to the Taliban.

An excellent critique of Israel’s grand strategy …

08 Wild Cards, Cultural Intelligence

editor spinney time — Chuck Spinney Sounds Off...

… which is to morally isolate itself by making enemies faster than it can kill them.

If Israel's behaviour continues unchecked, the pro-Israeli biases in and distortions of US policies will intensify our own isolation, until something snaps in our polity — and then, Israel will be all alone.

Read rest of article….

IMO … Israel's only constructive option is to do a grand strategic U turn, which Israel's leadership steadfastly refuses to do. On the contrary, it shows every sign of digging itself deeper into the self-destructive bunker mentality described by M.J. Rosenberg below.

[Interested readers will find a summary of the basic ideas underpinning a constructive grand strategy, which are universal, in this blaster, where I criticized the US grand strategy pursued by the Bush Administration.]

Chuck Spinney

Why Is Israel So Blind?

MJ Rosenberg, Political Correction, February 02, 2011 3:55 pm ET

Those of us in the pro-Israel, pro-peace camp do not enjoy being proven right — although we invariably are.

Our standard recommendation to Israel is that it should move quickly to achieve agreements with the Arab states and the stateless Palestinians before it is too late.

And the Israeli response is that there is no urgency to make peace — except on Israeli terms — because Israel is strong and the Arabs are weak.

Read rest of article….

2011/02/052011/02/05

Whither Egypt – and its Torturer Vice President

08 Wild Cards

Egypt: Exchanging a Dictator for a Torturer

By James Ridgeway, Mother Jones, Thu Feb. 3, 2011 8:30 AM PST

As for Suleiman, he looks to be a nasty piece of work.

Egyptian Protests Grounded in Decades of Struggle; Portend Regional Transformation

Max Ajl, Truthout, 03 February 2011

Egypt is throbbing with resistance. Cairo is cloven between the forces of revolution and those of counterrevolution. Hundreds of thousands of people – on Tuesday, February 1, well over a million – have been streaming each day into Tahrir Square, the largest plaza in the Arab world, located in the heart of downtown Cairo. Army tanks line the streets, helicopters and F16s buzz overhead, and pro-Mubarak demonstrators, many of them hired thugs, bloodied thousands of protesters yesterday in Tahrir and elsewhere. Yet the people keep pushing for Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak's unconditional ouster, and not just in Cairo. Alexandria has been convulsed, while Suez, a small city abutting the Suez Canal, has been riven with some of the fiercest street battles between the police and protesters, while workers there have gone on strike, demanding that Mubarak step down from his palace in Heliopolis.

NIGHTWATCH Special Comment on Egypt

07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, Advanced Cyber/IO, Autonomous Internet

Phi Beta Iota: Below the line is a most intriguing speculative analytic comment on what role Saudi Arabia may have played, and the intersection between religion, despots, military, and the public.

Continue reading “NIGHTWATCH Special Comment on Egypt”

2011/02/032011/02/03

extraterrestrial Readings….

08 Wild Cards, Cultural Intelligence, Earth Intelligence, History

Phi Beta Iota: Below the line are a number of books with links to their Amazon pages. The most interesting point we drew from creating this list is that the intersection of religion and science that is now occurring is coincident with the intersection of consciousness and extraterrestrial convergence. The Mayans foretold a return or “first disclosure” of extraterrestrials in 2012–some religions believe 2012 will be a year of apocalypse. We believe it will be a year of Awakening, enabling global public consciousness across all boundaries, in a manner never before achieved.

Continue reading “extraterrestrial Readings….”

2011/02/032011/02/03

Central Asia–Failed States in the Making

07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, Communities of Practice, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Peace Intelligence, Strategy

Central Asia: Decay and Decline

International Crisis Group Report 201 3 Feb 2011

Quietly but steadily Central Asia’s basic human and physical
infrastructure – the roads, power plants, hospitals and schools and the
last generation of Soviet-trained specialists who have kept this all
running – is disappearing. The equipment is wearing out, the personnel
retiring or dying. Post-independence regimes made little effort to
maintain or replace either, and funds allocated for this purpose have
largely been eaten up by corruption. This collapse has already sparked
protests and contributed to the overthrow of a government.

Read full report….

Continue reading “Central Asia–Failed States in the Making”