Phi Beta Iota: Bottom line: USA/NATO operating a massive Information Operations (IO) campaign while introducing ground forces not authorized by Congress, and committing what we consider to be mass atrocities (war crimes) in the deliberative destruction of the capital city and other infrastructure targets across the country.
“Everything you see from here is a big lie. People have got to bear this in mind. It's all fake. There's a fake, Libyan town that's been built in Qatar, and they can stage a Hollywood-style massacre in such a place, and say, ‘Now, it's enough, Gaddafi has gone too far.”
Reasoning by analogy is powerful, but dangerous for of thinking. Einstein, for example, showed how reasoning by analogy can unleash stunning insights , but only when properly tempered by critical observation, testing, and systematic analysis, can analogical insights lead to brilliant syntheses that literally change our view of reality.
But that benefit comes with a heavy price, because this kind of reasoning is also a very dangerous way to think. Analogies can capture the imagination and thereby bias the Orientation of less disciplined thinkers and decision makers to distort and twist their Observations into a vision of reality the Observer/Decision Maker wants to see. In so doing, the distorted Orientation takes decision maker off the cliff by disconnecting his Actions from the real world. And … for every Einstein with a highly disciplined Observation – Orientation – Decision Action loop, there are thousands of crackpots, nutcases, and charlatans trying to sell their visions of “what is” to sell their pre-concieved views of appropriate decisions and actions of action.
In the below essay, Richard Falk offers a good example of reasoning by analogy done properly. He carefully crafts and explains a limited set of parallels between the January 1968 Tet Offensive in Viet Nam to Obama's dilemma in Afghanistan. CS
The US expectation that the Taliban would learn to live with the American occupation in their lust for power in Kabul is far-fetched and can only be seen as wishful thinking.
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Equally, the ‘hidden agenda’ of the US invasion of Afghanistan can no longer be disowned. Quite obviously, the US intends to plunge into the ‘great game’ in Central Asia.
Phi Beta Iota: This is absolutely worth a complete read. The US is, as the author suggests, delusional in thinking the Taliban is going to put up with a US presence beyond this winter. The US has sentenced Karzai to death, and may well lose another 1,000 troops to body bags before the public has its “Tet Offensive” wake-up. There is nothing in Central Asia worth blood, spirit, and treasure–what is there is vastly over-stated in relation to what could be gained by refocusing on rebuilding America from inside out. This is a study in corruption across the legislative and executive branches of the US Government.
Most of what has been coming through the Total Information Dominance machinery about the situation in Tripoli – and Libya proper – is untrue. The situation there is very bad for the people, that much is true. But not only is the battle not with an indigenous rebellion – it is, rather, with a NATO expeditionary force comprised mainly of Qatari and other troops and irregulars under local Qatari regular command and coordinate with NATO proper.
Most reporting is being done from inside or near the journalists' hotels. Outside the primary location, snipers have fired at – and in one case, shot – non-mainstream journalists. Only those who are embedded with the invaders have been permitted to shoot outdoors, while the Libyan media has had its power cut off and is thus off the air.
You must recall that only this past Friday, we were told in full spectrum broadcast that Gadhaffi had left with his family for Tunisia. As it turns out, that was untrue.
Here's what I was told by some of the journalists stuck in the hotel who have been able to call around the city to the many residents they know personally:
The invaders have been largely turned back. They arrived under severe aerial attacks across the city, including strafing of civilians intended to clear the streets for the invasion. They were supplemented with troop landings from NATO naval vessels in the port. This was apparently the source of many of the Qatari personnel.
The invaders have been routed in many sectors, and, in fact, most of the city is calm with the exception of aerial activity.
What is needed right now is not despair on our part, but the dissemination of information, which NATO has decided is the most important battleground. Please visit my Facebook page at http://www.facebook.com/?ref=home#!/don.debar for a long string of information that needs to be shared with everyone you know – especially those in, or in contact with people in, Libya.
But experts are wondering who is this opposition and who are the rebels fighting Ghadafi’s forces?
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Marc Ginsberg, former U.S. Ambassador to Morocco, says the Libyan opposition is made up of different personalities and groups.
“It’s a sort of ‘Star War' assembly of characters and people who are clearly patriots, very decent people – I’m sure – journalists, opposition military officials who have broken with the regime, former diplomats – and then you’ve got Islamists,” said Ginsberg. “The Benghazi section of Libya was basically an opposition stronghold to Gadhafi and it has a very strong Islamist character to it. So while there are very good people who are part of this opposition coalition, we really can’t say that we know for sure what their capacity is to govern Libya.”
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“The 20-somethings are turning away from Islamists,” she said. “Now you do have an Islamic opposition and you always will have an Islamic extremism in the region. But this is not an Islamic movement. And it is not led by Islamists and it is not demanding the setting up of an Islamic Republic.
The interplay of chance with necessity means that no one can predict the future evolutionary pathway in Libya or the US role in Libya, but Ted Galen Carpenter of the libertarian CATO Inst. provides a thoughtful lens for thinking about potential ramifications of NATO's precipitate intervention in Libya.
Key issues discussed:
De facto or de jure partition vs a unification that sows the seeds of future conflict?
How to replenish empty Libyan treasury and repair infrastructure (including restoring oil production capability)?
Will US get sucked into another NATO stabilization, peacekeeping, nation-building mission?
After weeks of very little movement either militarily or diplomatically in Libya, there are apparent developments on both fronts in recent days. Rebel forces, aided by NATO’s air support, finally appear to be advancing into western Libya and cutting off supply lines to Tripoli, the long-time stronghold of support for Muammar Qaddafi. And reports are swirling about secret negotiations that might provide a peaceful exit from the country for the aging dictator.
Those developments underscore that U.S. and NATO officials urgently need to consider what strategy they intend to pursue if Qaddafi’s more-than-four-decade hold on power finally comes to an end. That is more crucial for the leaders of the European members of the alliance, since Libya is located on Europe’s Mediterranean flank, but because the Obama administration unwisely chose to involve the United States in Libya’s internecine conflict by launching air strikes, it has become a pertinent issue for Washington as well.
The outlook for a post-Qaddafi Libya is midpoint between sobering and depressing. It is possible that the warring parties will accept a de facto division of the country between the eastern and western tribes, although a formal agreement to that effect is unlikely. Even an informal partition would more accurately reflect the demographics, politics, and history of that territory than an insistence on keeping Libya intact.
Phi Beta Iota: A serious world power would heed the wisdom of Ambassador Mark Palmer, and have Undersecretaries for Peace at both foreign affairs and defense, with two strategies: one for dictators that agree to a five year non-violent exit strategy, and another for those that do not. What is happening in the Middle East today is a direct representation of the fact that there are no serious world powers in being today.
