04 Inter-State Conflict – Page 144 – Public Intelligence Blog

2009/12/142009/12/14

Journal: Pakistan-Afghanistan War

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 05 Energy, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism, 10 Security, Government, Military, Peace Intelligence, Strategy

Phi Beta Iota: Zbigniew Brzezinski is doing an enormous amount of damage in his hidden counsel to the White House; if John Hamre replaces Bob Gates in January as has been discussed, this will get worse, not better. Below are a few odds and ends from various contributing editors, consolidated here to avoid beating a dead horse with too many postings. We have not sought to reconcile contradictory points of view, only to honor the importance of listening to diverse points of view. The London Telegraph piece is reproduced in full as it has disappeared from online view.

Chuck Spinney Sends on Religious Fundamentalism and the Rise of the Corporate State on What Is Living and What Is Dead in Social Democracy? on Soldiers’ Complaints of Shoddy Gear Spur Inquiry by House Democrats

Webster Tarpley Sends on Obama's War Against Pakistan on End the War Rally Videos on No Wind of Change After Obama's Nobel Peace Prize

Obama’s West Point speech of December 1 represents far more than the obvious brutal escalation in Afghanistan — it is nothing less than a declaration of all-out war by the United States against Pakistan.

Victor Davis Hansen on Obama’s Wheel of Fortune: The president’s luck has changed — and he doesn’t seem to have noticed

Marcus Aurelius Sends: Special Forces Unite To Destroy Taliban Leaders London Sunday Telegraph December 13, 2009 Pg. 2 By Sean Rayment, Defence Correspondent

British and US special forces are set to open a new front in southern Afghanistan in a bid to “break the back” of the Taliban insurgency.

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2009/12/13

Reference: Foreign Policy in Focus–South Asia

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Articles & Chapters, Media Reports

Strategic Focus: South Asia

Boats in Bangladesh. Photo credit: Ahron de Leeuw.

Home to well over one-fifth of the population, South Asia continues to be a hotbed of conflict and upheaval. Human rights abuses, the war in Afghanistan, and climate change all present critical challenges to the region and to U.S. foreign policy. In our new focus, FPIF contributors examine current obstacles and future solutions in South Asia.

U.S. military strategy in Afghanistan is built on two coups, one in Kabul and the other in Islamabad, writes Shibil Siddiqi in Obama's Surge and Pakistan.

The AfPak Train Wreck: Conn Hallinan says that the president's goals in escalating the war in Afghanistan are deeply flawed. Just ask the Russians.

Adil Shamoo, in Nation-Building in Afghanistan, writes that the United States can learn from the mistakes made in Iraq to craft a new approach for that country.

Robert Naiman, in ‘Legitimacy' in Afghanistan, points out that escalation has just brought more death and destruction. More escalation could close off opportunities for a political solution.

Much of the Afghanistan debate has been centered in the U.S. But what do Afghans think? Gabriela Campos interviews Mariam Nawabi in Underlying Causes of Security in Afghanistan.

2009/12/132009/12/13

Officers Call: A Conversation About Iraq II

02 China, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 05 Iran, 10 Security, Analysis, Ethics, IO Sense-Making, Military, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence

Sir,

There's nothing inherently wrong with the analysis of Al Qaeda (I just glanced at it, if you wish I can read in detail today). The PROBLEM lies not so much in how we analyze support to terrorism (state, crime, other) but rather in the way we analyze (or rather do NOT analyze) EVERYTHING.

Here's what I have thrown together for you, in six pages with links.

Summary of Contents (OC Iraq II)

Why We Missed the Threat
Terrorism is Threat Number Nine Out of Ten
Terrorism is a Tactic, Al Qaeda an Interest Group
Without Legitimacy Forget About Stabilization
Rebalancing the Instruments of National Power
Three Things Secret Intelligence Cannot Do
Advise & Assist Transition to Exit Menu
- Strategic Communications
- Inter-Agency Professionals
- Regional Concordat
- Faith Brigades
- Redirect Funds Toward Waging Peace
- Contain Israel
- Make Nice with China

Officers Call on Iraq I

Semper Fidelis, Robert

2009/12/092009/12/16

Reference: General McCaffrey’s Trip Report on AF

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 08 Wild Cards, Analysis, Budgets & Funding, Military, Peace Intelligence, Policy, Strategy

After Action Report–General Barry McCaffrey, USA (Ret)

Visit to Kuwait and Afghanistan 10-18 Nov 09

11 pages

Extracted points

01 Phenomenally useful report with too much cheerleading. This is a 10-year regional war, State Department and AID are pulling out for next several years (too dangerous), costing us roughly half per day what we paid for all of WW II per day. Allies not really showing up and being effective, less the British.

02 Talked to Generals, Ambassadors, and Ministers–no Captions, no village chiefs. Nothing in her on intelligence, glosses over the C4I and protocol issues (see Journal: Beyond Weber to Epoch B Leadership).

03 Achilles' heels are multiple: 90% of the logistics come through Karachi, Pakistan and then overland. Without fire support and aviation this war is lost. Taliban now up to battalion-sized operations and believe they have high moral ground and time on their side. 100% US movement by air. (See Review: Firepower In Limited War; aviation sounds like a repeat of Viet-Nam; only thing keeping logistics open are the same decision made by NVA in Viet-Nam and by Iran-Syria in Iraq: better to let the Americans bleed themselves to death than cut their main supply line.

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2009/12/082009/12/08

Journal: Questions on AF & PK, The Larger Question

03 Economy, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Civil Society, Ethics, Government, Media, Military, Peace Intelligence

What Congress Should Ask McChrystal

Phi Beta Iota: WIRED Magazine has put together a number of questions that ably illustrate the confusion in the public mind over why we are in Afghanistan and what that has to do with Pakistan. Based on the history of the Cold War, which appears to have been a Fity Year Wound, In Search of Enemies, or as General Smedley Butler, USMC (Ret) put it, War is a Racket, we have to wonder. When one combines the scandals associated with health care (50% waste according to PriceWaterhouseCoopers), the economy (a fraudulent Federal Reserve and phantom wealth leveraged by Wall Street to the detriment of the commonwealth), and all of the other pressing problems facing America, the larger question is not really about Afghanistan or Pakistan but rather about process. Is America a democracy? Is our policy process reasoned and informed? Is the public interest being served? Does the White House really understand The True Cost of Conflict/Seven Recent Wars and Their Effects on Society?

2009/12/012009/12/01

Journal: Why they hate us (II): How many Muslims has the U.S. killed in the past 30 years?

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism, 10 Security, Academia, Civil Society, Ethics, Government, Military

Tom Friedman had an especially fatuous column in Sunday's New York Times, which is saying something given his well-established capacity for smug self-assurance. According to Friedman, the big challenge we face in the Arab and Islamic world is “the Narrative” — his patronizing term for Muslim views about America's supposedly negative role in the region.

. . . . . . .

I heard a different take on this subject at a recent conference on U.S. relations with the Islamic world. In addition to hearing a diverse set of views from different Islamic countries, one of the other participants (a prominent English journalist) put it quite simply. “If the United States wants to improve its image in the Islamic world,” he said, “it should stop killing Muslims.”

Phi Beta Iota: The chart is below the fold, or at the Full Story Online

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2009/11/262009/11/27

Journal: China May Demand Physical Gold

02 China, 03 Economy, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 10 Transnational Crime, Commerce, Ethics, Government

SPECIAL FROM OUR SOURCES IN ASIA

Gold could be about to get disorderly also as it approaches the key $1200 call option strike. The strong rumour is the large $1200oz Dec call owner is the Peoples Bank of China. Gold traders increasingly believe that China will force physical delivery of 2.8moz of gold instead of the usual cash settlement. My contacts suggest short-term mayhem may be about to break out in gold for a few days as those who have sold the call and get exercised scramble to buy physical for delivery. To put this in context 2.8moz is around 80 tonnes of gold. Yes, it's that big and you can see why there is short-covering everywhere in gold.

Phi Beta Iota: If John Mack becomes Secretary of the Treasury, we anticipate China having a subtle but respected influence on the US Treasury as a condition for selective cover-ups, and China managing the situation so it ultimately gets compensation for all the gold stolen by Japen and confiscated by the US to create the Treasury Black Eagle Trust and Golden Lily slush funds. China did NOT sign the San Francisco Treaty and is on solid ground. We respect John Mack, he might possibly be the first truly multinational Secretary of the Treasury, and if he can make a commitment to Open Money and Real Wealth as a future path for the global economy, he could conceivably be the single most important person in the 21st Century. For background see

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