editor spinney time — Chuck Spinney Recommends

The attached trip report documents William R. Polk's impressions of the current situation in Afghanistan based on interviews and discussions he had over a period of 10 days in August. Polk, a highly experienced American diplomat, foreign policy specialist, as well as a being a highly-regarded scholar, is the author of Violent Politics: A History of Insurgency, Terrorism, and Guerrilla War, from the American Revolution to Iraq, which is one of the very best books I have ever read on the subject of guerrilla warfare.

This very informative albeit long document covers a variety of viewpoints, each of which merits careful reading. I found the recapitulation of his discussions with Russian Ambassador Andrey Avetisyan and Mullah Abdul Salam, a former high ranking member to the Taliban, to be particularly interesting and important.

Chuck Spinney

af divided — Polk AF Trip Report Aug 2010

Phi Beta Iota: We read every word. Talk about deja vu. Everywhere we have ever been, the exaggeration of security and force protection, along with the absence of responsible informed strategy, leaves the Americans both out of touch with reality, and ineffective at waging peace.

2010/08/272010/09/16

Journal: Denmark Ceases on Afghanistan

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Military, Peace Intelligence

Afghanistan-Denmark-NATO: Today the Danish Foreign Minister said Denmark has turned down a NATO request to send F-16 fighters to Afghanistan because it believes it has done enough for the international military mission there.

“We are one of the countries that contributes the most to Afghanistan,” Foreign Minister Lene Espersen told the media after a meeting of parliament's foreign affairs committee. “This is why we rejected the NATO request” which was also made to other member countries, she said.

Espersen said the committee “has a strong desire to scale down engagement” in Afghanistan as the Danish defense budget was “under pressure” and the government “is under no obligation to do more” there. Denmark “can be proud” of its role in Afghanistan, she said, adding that “it's up to other countries to play a role and meet demands”.

NIGHTWATCH Comment: Denmark has 750 soldiers in Afghanistan serving in the International Security Assistance Force force, primarily in Helmand province. Its small contingent has sustained, proportionally, the heaviest losses of any ISAF nation with 34 combat deaths. The fight in Afghanistan is not popular in NATO. More countries may be expected to decline further involvement and pursue early withdrawal in 2011.

NIGHTWATCH KGS Home

Phi Beta Iota: Denmark spends more than most on waging peace, and its government is vastly more intelligent and holistic than the US Government (USG). The raw truth is that the US made a huge mistake in both Iraq and Afghanistan, Denmark felt obliged to honor its NATO commitment when NATO compounded the mistake by making Afghanistan a NATO mission (equivalent to asking Mexico to declare Cuba a threat to national security–we all die laughing). The USG is incapable of demonstrating any return on investment for its foreign and national security policies, and the US public is among the losers for this lack of intellectual integrity.

2010/08/262010/08/26

NIGHTWATCH Extract: Our Friends, our Enemies

08 Wild Cards, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Military

Iraq: Insurgents conducted at least 34 coordinated attacks in 16 cities 0n 25 August. The bombings and other attacks killed 77 people and wounded nearly 400 more. Baghdad experienced five attacks.

NIGHTWATCH Comment: The attacks showed the breadth of the insurgents' operational area. They appear to be the work of a single group, apparently Sunni Arabs or secular Arabs.

The attacks also establish a baseline of the insurgents' ability to coordinate attacks over space and time. This was not a trivial display of the capability to coordinate attacks over long distances. They appear to be a test of the feasibility of taking the next escalation step in the insurgency.

Some outside entity is funding a new, most likely Sunni Arab, insurgency and has afforded its leadership the command and control capability for today's attacks. Look to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

NIGHTWATCH KGS Home

Phi Beta Iota: Emphasis added above. The US Government (not America the Beautiful or the big-hearted American public) is called a “useful idiot” in most of the world precisely because it mixes hubris and naivete with vast amounts of money spent without a strategy and without accountability. It took too long to understand the Saudi funding behind the global spread of virulent Wahhabism, while the equivalent funding to the Bush family and others assured that at the political and policy level, our enemies the Saudis would remain conveniently and unethically our friends.

2010/08/232010/08/27

South America #1, Africa #2, Asia #3 Safest Continents for Web

08 Wild Cards, Computer/online security, Cyberscams, malware, spam, Technologies

Africa: The 2nd Safest Continent to Surf the Web

by HASH on August 23, 2010

Here’s an interesting study by AVG on internet security, asking “Where in the World are you most likely to be hit by a malicious computer attack or virus?”.

Apparently, and surprisingly to me, the answer is “not Africa” or South America.

“During the last week of July, AVG researchers compiled a list of virus and malware attacks by country picked up by AVG security software. This means we have compiled data from over 127 million computers in 144 countries to determine the incidence rates of virus attacks by country.”

Dirk Singer, of AVG sent over the list of African countries, here they are country-by-country. As you can see, sub-saharan Africa is compatively ‘safe’ compared to other areas of the World. Your chances of being attacked while surfing the web in each country are:

North Africa

Egypt 1 in 62.4
Algeria 1 in 86.9
Libya 1 in 87.7
Mauritania 1 in 92.4
Tunisia 1 in 110.7
Morocco 1 in 112.1

Continue reading “South America #1, Africa #2, Asia #3 Safest Continents for Web”

2010/08/222010/08/22

Bangladesh Farmers + ICT, Increasing Awareness to Increase Income, Model for Other Countries

01 Agriculture, 01 Poverty, 03 Economy, 03 Environmental Degradation, 04 Education, 08 Wild Cards, Civil Society, Commerce, Technologies

eKrishok

Farmers wise up online

by Nahid Akhter (Aug 20, 2010)

(clipped from full article) Bangladeshi farmers have to go through numerous hardships. Natural calamities cannot be avoided. However, if the farmer knew when to expect one and thereby take appropriate preventive measures, maybe some of his crops could be saved. Besides natural calamities, he is always running the risk of crop infestations and rainfall that is either too low or too high, thereby producing poor yields. Due to poor education, many farmers may be following the practices of his fore-fathers blindly, without looking for better agricultural methods or practices.

Without proper information, a farmer whose crops have been infested by pests, for example, would think that this is the end and that his crops are only destined to die. This would mean a bad income that year, and no food for his family.

So what if this farmer was armed with easy access to the correct information at the correct time? This could lighten his load by ridding him of numerous uncertainties during his agricultural process and thereby raise his family's living standards. A better living standard for the farmers would mean a more developed Bangladesh.

BIID , with support from UNDP, has teamed up with Grameenphone by setting up Community Information Centres all over the country. In the pilot phase, 10 Centres had been opened in various locations, but the aim is to scale this up to more than 1000 locations in the country.

Continue reading “Bangladesh Farmers + ICT, Increasing Awareness to Increase Income, Model for Other Countries”

2010/08/222010/08/23

Video: Japanese Machine Making Fuel from Plastic, “Trash into Treasure”

03 Environmental Degradation, 05 Energy, 08 Wild Cards, Technologies, Waste (materials, food, etc)

The Japanese company Blest has developed one of the smallest and safest PLASTIC-to-OIL conversion machines out on the market today. It's founder and CEO, Akinori Ito is passionate about using this machine to change the way people around the world think about their plastic trash. From solving our landfill and garbage disposal issues to reducing our oil dependancy on the Middle East, his machine may one day be in every household across Japan.
While holding up a bag of trash, he states, “It's a waste to throw away, isn't it? This is a treasure.”

Comment: a comment from a YouTube viewer asking the energy-use of this machine is highly relevant, especially for poorer regions and it would have been better to have included much more info in the video. However, it's interesting to think that those in the trash recycling business may have received a new economic prospect.

Thanks to “Hacker News”

2010/08/182010/08/18

Journal: General McCrystal Wins, US Troops Lose

08 Wild Cards, Government, Military, Officers Call

Marcus-Aurelius-150x150 — Marcus Aurelius Recommends

New York Daily News
August 17, 2010
Pg. 18

Fired McChrystal Gets Yale Grad School Gig

WASHINGTON — Retired Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the too-outspoken Afghan commander sacked by President Obama, picked up a consolation prize yesterday from the Ivy League.

Yale announced McChrystal would teach a “ leadership seminar” for grad students. McChrystal said he was looking forward to “ sharing my experiences and insights as a career military officer.”

McChrystal, 56, was forced into retirement in June after dissing the chain of command in a Rolling Stone interview.

FULL STORY ONLINE

Continue reading “Journal: General McCrystal Wins, US Troops Lose”

Category: 08 Wild Cards

Journal: William Polk AF Trip Report August 2010