Joshua Landis, Syria Comment, Thursday, June 17th, 2010
Joshua M. Landis is Director of the Center for Middle East Studies and Associate Professor of Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Oklahoma. He is a member of the School of International and Area Studies. He writes “Syria Comment,” a daily newsletter on Syrian politics that attracts some 3,000 readers a day. It is widely read by officials in Washington, Europe and Syria. Dr. Landis regularly travels to Washington DC to consult with the State Department and other government agencies.
Landis Interview with a Foreign Journalist
1. Professor Landis, tensions between the US and Syria have deteriorated. What are the main reasons of this deterioration?
About Dr. Bates Gill (US), New and seventh Director, Stockholm International Peace Research Intitute
Most interesting sentence:
The number of civilians mandated for roles in United Nations missions has increased, as has the number of multilateral civilian peace missions. Yet, the international community’s record in strengthening civilian capacities in peace operations is decidedly mixed. These efforts still lack conceptual coherency and intra- and inter-organizational cooperation, and major operational challenges persist. The emergent ambition to significantly reform and improve civilian operations is timely and much needed but should not have over-expectations of success at this point.
Phi Beta Iota: The UN, despite its ponderous “dumb” bureaucracy and a plethora of spies who are more of a problem for their ignorance about their cover duties than as a welcome source of free meals, is actually maturing as an organization. The signal endeavors are the Brahimi Report, the report of the High Level Panel on Threats, Challenges, and Change; and most recently, the report of the Panel on Coherence, whose signal descriptor, “Deliver As One,” simultaneously defines the incapacity of the UN, and the objective. The UN is also toying–with enormous resistance from the entrenched mandarins–with hybrid efforts such as are represented by the International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG). The latter is very much in keeping with the brilliant analytics and related recommendations of J. F. Rischard, then World Bank Vice-President for Europe, whose book HIGH NOON: Twenty Global Problems, Twenty Years to Solve Them, which remains one of the seminal works of our time–elegant, erudite, relevant, and readable. There is a hybrid, bottom-up, collective intelligence, non-zero revolution going on around the world.
Rotting Oder of Pentagon Info Op Signals Effort to Shore Up its Great Game in the Hindu Kush
On 13 June, James Risen of the New York Times conveniently (at least for the Pentagon and the war party) reported that the “United States has discovered $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits in Afghanistan [also attached below for your convenience]. I say convenient, because time is running out for the Pentagon in Afghanistan, and this report introduces a ‘new’ reason for occupying Afghanistan. The timing of this report was noticed very quickly by several skeptical commentators ( e.g., here and here).
But there is more. The NYT report has the rotting odor of yet another Pentagon misinformation operation to lather up the masses using the willing offices of the tired old Gray Lady of journalism. The oder is intense, because Risen’s Pentagon-inspired geological report coincides with the growing disenchantment with Afghan adventure. And more people are coming to appreciate the disconnect between (1) a spate of credible reports (e.g., here) describing the lack of progress in Afghanistan, particularly the failure of the showcase Marja COIN strategy to deliver its predicted result and (2) the requirement imposed by President Obama to show progress by the end of this summer. Bear in mind, Obama’s ‘requirement’ was imposed on the Pentagon when he improved the flawed McChrystal/Petraeus surge plan and sold it to the American people last fall. The military and spokesmen for the Obama administration began immediately to back away from the deadline shortly after its inception, and it has already been stretched to coincide with the mid-term elections in November — which goes to show that domestic politics do not end at the water’s edge?
Although the several commentators expressed their justifiable skepticism about the timing of the NYT report, to the best of my knowledge, none have addressed the substance of the mineral estimate. Shortly after it was published, my good friend and colleague Pierre Sprey, who has been called a vampire because he does his best work in the dark after midnight, got to the heart of the latter question and put the entire story together in an elegantly brief email that he distributed in the dark early hours of 14 June.
Attached for your reading pleasure is Pierre’s incisive critique:
Pierre Sprey
U.S. Identifies Vast Riches of Minerals in Afghanistan
Pierre Sprey 14 June 2010
The timing of this release of ancient mining news–especially when floated with Petraeus' name plastered all over it in a tried-and-true government propaganda outlet like the N.Y. Times–smells to me like a last ditch attempt to invent an economic justification for hanging on many more years in the hopeless Afghani morass.
Note that the now sacrosanct 1980s Russian mineral survey was “stumbled on” six years ago in 2004 by an American reconstruction team foraging in the Afghan Geological Survey Library. Then, according to the Times' (read Petraeus and DoD) spin, nothing happened until two years later when the U.S. Geological Survey launched a 2006 aerial mineral survey followed by another in 2007, supposedly yielding all-new evidence of astonishing mineral wealth (iron, gold, copper, lithium, supposedly a trillion dollar's worth) just waiting to be tapped. Supposedly, this astonishing new evidence was then ignored by all until a Pentagon business development task force “rediscovered” the ignored USGS mineral data in 2009.
This spin is quite untrue: in 2005, the Afghan government, quite aware of their mineral resources, opened bidding on copper mining leases in Logar Province, bidding that was won by the Chinese in 2007. As for the reliability of the USGS data, note that they report 1.8 billion tons of potential lithium deposits (lithium is very trendy with the greens these days) but only a puny 111 million tons in proven or probable deposits.
But none of this purportedly astonishing USGS aerial survey data has raised much dust in the international mining world, despite the fact that the entire current New York Times scoop was thoroughly covered by Reuters and Mining Exploration News a year ago in April of 2009.
So what turned the ho-hum Reuters news of April, 2009 into a hot Times scoop in June of 2010? Is there any connection with the desperate need of McChrystal, Petraeus and Gates for a life jacket, now that the Afghan surge they floated is sinking so rapidly?
WASHINGTON — The United States has discovered nearly $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits in Afghanistan, far beyond any previously known reserves and enough to fundamentally alter the Afghan economy and perhaps the Afghan war itself, according to senior American government officials.
The previously unknown deposits — including huge veins of iron, copper, cobalt, gold and critical industrial metals like lithium — are so big and include so many minerals that are essential to modern industry that Afghanistan could eventually be transformed into one of the most important mining centers in the world, the United States officials believe.
An internal Pentagon memo, for example, states that Afghanistan could become the “Saudi Arabia of lithium,” a key raw material in the manufacture of batteries for laptops and BlackBerrys.
Chapter 20, “21st Century Counterintelligence: Evaluating the Health of the Nation,” especially Dereliction of Duty (Defense); Disinformation, Other Information Pathologies, & Repression; Emprire as a Cancer including Betrayal & Deceit; Impeacahable Offenses (Modern); Institutionalized Ineptitude; and Intelligence (Lack Of), all in the online hyperlinked version of INTELLIGENCE for Earth: Clarity, Diversity, Integrity, & Sustainability (pages 179-205, in Part III.
Talk of wealth from minerals by US geologists and Pentagon personnel add to the darkening view that those involved in war, corruption and disregard for the people of Afghanistan (and sacrificed soldiers + more to be sacrificed) will prosper…
Income from cannabis per ha (gross/net) US$ 3,900 / US$ 3,341 | Income from opium per ha (gross/net) US$ 3,600 / US$ 2,005 | Income from wheat per ha (gross/net) US$ 1,200 / US$ 960
+ Gas Pipeline attempts = 1998 Congressional record related to Unocal/U.S. interests in Central Asia & November 2001 Asia Times article about the book “Bin Laden, la verite interdite (Bin Laden, the forbidden truth)” mentioning the US government's main objective in Afghanistan was to consolidate the position of the Taliban regime to obtain access to the oil and gas reserves in Central Asia.
“To be truthful about it, there was no way we could have got the public consent to have suddenly launched a campaign on Afghanistan but for what happened on September 11”
-Tony Blair (London Times, 7/17/02)
originally at http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-358038,00.html but no longer at that URL
Below and at the link is a comprehensive discussion of the emerging grand strategy that is shaping Turkey's foreign initiatives. It deserves careful reading.
John Feffer is the co-director of Foreign Policy in Focus at the Institute for Policy Studies, writes its regular World Beat column, and co-directs its Balkans Project. His past essays, including those for TomDispatch.com, can be read at his Web site. He would like to thank Alexander Atanasov, Rebecca Azhdam, and Noor Iqbal for research assistance.
Why doesn’t Turkey have a comparable grip on American visions of the future? Characters in science fiction novels don’t speak Turkish. Turkish-language programs are as scarce as hen’s teeth on college campuses. Turkey doesn’t even qualify as part of everyone’s favorite group of up-and-comers, that swinging BRIC quartet of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. Turkey remains stubbornly fixed in Western culture as a backward-looking land of doner kebabs, bazaars, and guest workers.
But take population out of the equation – an admittedly big variable – and Turkey promptly becomes a likely candidate for future superpower. It possesses the 17th top economy in the world and, according to Goldman Sachs, has a good shot at breaking into the top 10 by 2050. Its economic muscle is also well defended: after decades of NATO assistance, the Turkish military is now a regional powerhouse.
Perhaps most importantly, Turkey occupies a vital crossroads between Europe, the Middle East, and Central Asia. A predominantly Muslim democracy atop the ruins of Byzantium, it bridges the Islamic and Judeo-Christian traditions, even as it sits perched at the nexus of energy politics. All roads once led to Rome; today all pipelines seem to lead to Turkey. If superpower status followed the rules of real estate – location, location, location – then Turkey would already be near the top of the heap.
Iran-Turkey: Iranian President Ahmadi-Nejad said on 13 June that the United States pressured Turkey to abstain on a U.N. Security Council vote approving new sanctions against Iran, instead of voting against the sanctions, Islamic Republic TV reported. Ahmadi-Nejad said Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan told him US President Obama spoke with Erdogan on the telephone requesting Turkey's abstention for 90 minutes. Erdogan also allegedly told Ahmadi-Nejad that Obama said he needed to “do something” about Iran, that he was under pressure from the US Congress and that the sanctions were not strong and would have no effect on Iran.
Comment: If Ahmadi-Nejad's statements are accurate, the Turkish prime minister committed an egregious betrayal of confidence. If the Turkish government does not deny this report, the US is entitled to consider it and treat it as authentic. Turkey is behaving as an ally of Iran more than an ally of the US.
Many commentators have warned about Turkey's aspirations for leadership in the Gaza confrontation. A point overlooked is it is not a Muslim problem, so much as an Arab political problem. Turks are not really welcome except to the extent that they provide diversion from Arab handling of the problem. The same is also true of the Persians in Iran.
Support for HAMAS is not a path to leadership in the Arab world for outsiders. Arab leaders also apparently judge that strong support for HAMAS does not advance their interests.
Iraq: For the record. A one-hour meeting between Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and al-Iraqiya leader Iyad Allawi on 12 June ended with both parties agreeing to form a national partnership government encompassing all groups, Aswat al-Iraq reported.
This announcement did not state who will be the prime minister.
Saudi Arabia: For the record. On the afternoon of 12 June responded to The Times of London report that the Saudi forces would allow Israeli jets to use Saudi airspace to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities, Jerusalem Post reported. The Saudi Defense Ministry described the report as being baseless and untrue.
Comment: This minor fracas looks like a Saudi reminder to the Persians of what can happen if they continue to intrude in Arab affairs, such as Gaza, or are shown to have developed a nuclear weapons capability. A Saudi denial is required and an important part of the message that will feed Iranian anxiety.
COMMENT: From (UK) Independent. There is some interesting stuff on Wikileaks. Not all of it is US and not all of it is classified. Further, Wikileaks is far from the only site in the business. Oh, and Bradley Manning is very unlikely to be a US IO. He's much more likely to be an E-1 or E-2 Army 96B intel analyst who had a couple of Article 15s and was on his way out of the Army. However, he probably did have the standard USIC clearance package and access to codeword-level computer systems. Lesson (re)learned here: if you're going to take an adverse action against somebody with that kind of access, you probably need to terminate permanently the access before you take the action so revenge can't, at least as easily as it may have here, take the form of an intentional compromise)
It has the ingredients of a spy thriller: an American military analyst turned whistleblower; 260,000 classified government documents; and rumours that the world's most powerful country is hunting a former hacker whom it believes is about to publish them.
Pentagon and State Department officials are desperately trying to discover whether Bradley Manning, a US army intelligence officer currently under arrest in Kuwait, has leaked highly sensitive embassy cables to Wikileaks.org, an online community of some 800 volunteer cyber experts, activists, journalists and lawyers which has become a thorn in the side of governments and corrupt corporations across the globe.
Reports in the US say officials are seeking to apprehend Julian Assange, the website's founder who has pioneered the release of the kind of information the mainstream media are either unwilling or unable to publish.
. . . . . . .
Manning, 22, an intelligence analyst from Potomac, Maryland, who had been serving in Iraq, was revealed earlier this week as the source behind a highly damning leak earlier in the year that showed harrowing cockpit footage of an American Apache helicopter gunning down unarmed civilians in Baghdad three years ago.
But the Apache video may have proven to be one leak too far. Adrian Lamo, a former US hacker turned journalist who had been conversing with Manning online and later gave up his name to the authorities, said he also claimed to have handed 260,000 classified US embassy messages to Wikileaks.
According to Mr Lamo, Manning said the documents showed “almost-criminal political back dealings” made by US embassies in the Middle East which, if true, would cause enormous embarrassment to key allies in a notoriously volatile area of the world. Mr Lamo claims Manning said that “Hillary Clinton and several thousand diplomats around the world are going to have a heart attack when they wake up one morning, and find an entire repository of classified foreign policy is available, in searchable format, to the public”.
Phi Beta Iota: The US Military may at some point — using open sources of information — discover that Mr. Assange is the confirmed keynote speaker at Hackers on Planet Earth (HOPE), taking place at the Hotel Pennsylvania in NYC, 18-20 July 2010. He will be followed by the founder of OSS.Net, Earth Intelligence Network, and Phi Beta Iota, Mr. Robert Steele, who is now in seclusion in Latin America, but has never missed this event, for which he was the first keynote speaker in 1994. On Friday the 18th Steele will provide a 30 minute presentation on his new book, “Hacking Humanity,” on Saturday the 19th he will do SPY IMPROV from 2200 until the audience runs out of questions–the record is four hours. As with past sessions, video will be provided online for those who cannot stay up late.
