08 Wild Cards – Page 213 – Public Intelligence Blog

Haider Mullick is a Senior Fellow at the US Joint Special Operations University and a research fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding.

The Diplomat speaks with South Asia analyst Haider Mullick about Pakistan’s counter-insurgency efforts, conspiracy theories and the prospects for stability in Afghanistan.

The Questions (Click Here for the Answers)

You’ve recently returned from a trip to India and Pakistan. How have perceptions of the United States settled since US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited?

You’ve written recently about how the US needs to market itself in Pakistan. In a nutshell, what does it need to be doing differently?

Clinton was critical of Pakistan’s failure to capture top al-Qaeda leaders. Broadly speaking, how do you rate Pakistan’s counter-insurgency efforts?

How effective has the Pakistani leadership been in rallying public support for its counter-insurgency efforts?

Looking across the border at Afghanistan, what do you make of the recent US announcement to send 30,000 more troops. Was President Barack Obama right to set out a timeline for withdrawal?

Are you optimistic about the prospects for long-term stability in Afghanistan?

2009/12/142009/12/14

Journal: Pakistan-Afghanistan War

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 05 Energy, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism, 10 Security, Government, Military, Peace Intelligence, Strategy

Phi Beta Iota: Zbigniew Brzezinski is doing an enormous amount of damage in his hidden counsel to the White House; if John Hamre replaces Bob Gates in January as has been discussed, this will get worse, not better. Below are a few odds and ends from various contributing editors, consolidated here to avoid beating a dead horse with too many postings. We have not sought to reconcile contradictory points of view, only to honor the importance of listening to diverse points of view. The London Telegraph piece is reproduced in full as it has disappeared from online view.

Chuck Spinney Sends on Religious Fundamentalism and the Rise of the Corporate State on What Is Living and What Is Dead in Social Democracy? on Soldiers’ Complaints of Shoddy Gear Spur Inquiry by House Democrats

Webster Tarpley Sends on Obama's War Against Pakistan on End the War Rally Videos on No Wind of Change After Obama's Nobel Peace Prize

Obama’s West Point speech of December 1 represents far more than the obvious brutal escalation in Afghanistan — it is nothing less than a declaration of all-out war by the United States against Pakistan.

Victor Davis Hansen on Obama’s Wheel of Fortune: The president’s luck has changed — and he doesn’t seem to have noticed

Marcus Aurelius Sends: Special Forces Unite To Destroy Taliban Leaders London Sunday Telegraph December 13, 2009 Pg. 2 By Sean Rayment, Defence Correspondent

British and US special forces are set to open a new front in southern Afghanistan in a bid to “break the back” of the Taliban insurgency.

Continue reading “Journal: Pakistan-Afghanistan War”

2009/12/142011/10/22

Journal: Weak Signals–Civil War in the USA?

08 Wild Cards, Civil Society, Collective Intelligence, Ethics, Government, Law Enforcement

Missouri Billboard Warns: “Prepare For War” Against Government (12 December 2009)

A new billboard off of Interstate 70 in Missouri provides a short “citizens guide to REVOLUTION of a corrupt government” and issues a call to “PREPARE FOR WAR.”

This billboard replaces one that warned that the socialist “Obama-Nation” is “coming for you.” It’s unclear who the owner of the billboard is, but the first one was the work of a “Missouri businessman.”

While it’s unclear who owns it, the Lafayette County Republican Central Committee seems to endorse it.

U.S. Forces Plan Direct Action Against American Citizens (11 December 2009)

“There is an event coming in the very near-term future that is going to effect the USA to its very soul,” former Kansas State Trooper Greg Everson of The Heartland USA and former host of Republic Broadcasting “Voices from the Heartland” told host Steve Quayle in a special two hour “Survive 2 Thrive” broadcast Thursday.

Continue reading “Journal: Weak Signals–Civil War in the USA?”

2009/12/13

Reference: Foreign Policy in Focus–South Asia

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Articles & Chapters, Media Reports

Strategic Focus: South Asia

Boats in Bangladesh. Photo credit: Ahron de Leeuw.

Home to well over one-fifth of the population, South Asia continues to be a hotbed of conflict and upheaval. Human rights abuses, the war in Afghanistan, and climate change all present critical challenges to the region and to U.S. foreign policy. In our new focus, FPIF contributors examine current obstacles and future solutions in South Asia.

U.S. military strategy in Afghanistan is built on two coups, one in Kabul and the other in Islamabad, writes Shibil Siddiqi in Obama's Surge and Pakistan.

The AfPak Train Wreck: Conn Hallinan says that the president's goals in escalating the war in Afghanistan are deeply flawed. Just ask the Russians.

Adil Shamoo, in Nation-Building in Afghanistan, writes that the United States can learn from the mistakes made in Iraq to craft a new approach for that country.

Robert Naiman, in ‘Legitimacy' in Afghanistan, points out that escalation has just brought more death and destruction. More escalation could close off opportunities for a political solution.

Much of the Afghanistan debate has been centered in the U.S. But what do Afghans think? Gabriela Campos interviews Mariam Nawabi in Underlying Causes of Security in Afghanistan.

2009/12/092009/12/16

Reference: General McCaffrey’s Trip Report on AF

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 08 Wild Cards, Analysis, Budgets & Funding, Military, Peace Intelligence, Policy, Strategy

After Action Report–General Barry McCaffrey, USA (Ret)

Visit to Kuwait and Afghanistan 10-18 Nov 09

11 pages

Extracted points

01 Phenomenally useful report with too much cheerleading. This is a 10-year regional war, State Department and AID are pulling out for next several years (too dangerous), costing us roughly half per day what we paid for all of WW II per day. Allies not really showing up and being effective, less the British.

02 Talked to Generals, Ambassadors, and Ministers–no Captions, no village chiefs. Nothing in her on intelligence, glosses over the C4I and protocol issues (see Journal: Beyond Weber to Epoch B Leadership).

03 Achilles' heels are multiple: 90% of the logistics come through Karachi, Pakistan and then overland. Without fire support and aviation this war is lost. Taliban now up to battalion-sized operations and believe they have high moral ground and time on their side. 100% US movement by air. (See Review: Firepower In Limited War; aviation sounds like a repeat of Viet-Nam; only thing keeping logistics open are the same decision made by NVA in Viet-Nam and by Iran-Syria in Iraq: better to let the Americans bleed themselves to death than cut their main supply line.

Continue reading “Reference: General McCaffrey's Trip Report on AF”

2009/12/092009/12/09

Journal: US Begins Regional War on Pashtun

05 Civil War, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Government, Military, Peace Intelligence

Chuck Spinney sends:
In my opinion, this is an extremely important piece of writing and needs to be read very carefully. The author of this article built an international reputation for excellence during his reporting on the Iraq War, and now he is positioning himself to do the same on Afghanistan. Conflating al Qaeda with the Taliban will mutate the so-called war on terror into an Anti-Pashtun (AF-Pak) War, with unknowable ramifications that could very well make the lunacy of Mad King George's aggression in Iraq look miniscule in comparison.

Full Story Online

A Wider and Unnecessary War: The March of Folly

By PATRICK COCKBURN December 7, 2009

By treating Pashtun villagers as if they were all Taliban, and Taliban as being the equivalent of al-Qa’ida, Mr Obama is increasing, not reducing, the threat of terrorist attack on the US or Britain. He is providing the battleground bin Laden hoped for and, like President Bush before him, has jumped willingly into the al-Qa’ida trap.

. . . . . .

One of the most foolish and misleading claims by US and British generals is that fighting a guerrilla war can be successfully combined with dispensing aid and building bridges and roads. But, as one commentator puts it, such a mixture of Wyatt Earp and Mother Theresa is not feasible. Soldiers are trained to get what they want by force and that is generally what they do. Afghans whose families have just been killed by a bomb will not be conciliated by a fine new drainage system.

Other minefields face incoming American and British forces. The Afghan government is in many respects a criminal racket.

2009/12/092009/12/17

Journal: Running Interference On Interference

08 Wild Cards, Military, Mobile

Running Interference On Interference

December 9, 2009: The U.S. Army, which operates thousands of UAVs (over 90 percent of them the five pound Raven, which gives each company commander his own recon aircraft), has found more and more of them suffering from electronic interference. This problem is expected to get worse, especially as the army introduces dozens of Sky Warriors (a cousin to the air force Predator) over the next year or so. The larger UAVs have a lot more going on inside them, and a lot more electronic commands coming to the aircraft. The air force has noted an increase in electronic interference in its growing fleet of Predators and Reapers. Some air force officers believe the enemy is trying to electronically jam the command signals, or electronics on board the UAVs. But electronics experts believe it's just the greater number electronic signals in the air, even in rural Afghanistan. Nevertheless, better encryption is being used for the control signals going to and from U.S. UAVs.

Phi Beta Iota: Tip of the hat to Strategy Page. Over 30 years ago it was known that Soviet emission standards were ten times tougher than ours. Today we not only do not have emission standards to speak of, but we use open commercial communicaitons satellites and we do not worry about having all our Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems online. The U.S. Government appears to be completely oblivious to basic realities.

Category: 08 Wild Cards

Journal: Straight Talk From Haider Mullick on AF-PK