Category: 08 Wild Cards

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NATO ACT CFC: Water Security: Afghanistan Transboundary Water Resources in Regional Context

08 Wild Cards, 12 Water

logo cfcWater Security: Afghanistan Transboundary Water Resources in Regional Context

NATO Allied Command Operations (ACO) Civil-Military Fusion Centre (CFC)

Rainer Gonzalez Palau
Afghanistan Team Leader
Social and Strategic Infrastructure Desk Officer

This document outlines the global trends in water security and the threats to regional stability posed by the transboundary water resources. Moreover, the document presents salient details in the particular case of Afghanistan's transboundary water resources, reviews disputes over the four main international basins Afghanistan shares with its neighbouring countries, and introduces a framework to properly manage water resources. Further information on these issues is available at www.cimicweb.org. Hyperlinks to source material are highlighted in blue and underlined in the text.

Within the next twenty years, the global demand for water will exceed expected supply by forty per cent, according to a report by McKinsey & Company. Since “water security is the gossamer that links together the web of food, energy, climate, economic growth, and human security challenges,” a shortage of water will escalate food prices, disrupt energy availability, limit trade, increase refugee flows and undermine authority, says the World Economic Forum (WEF). If the worsening water security structural problem is unheeded, it will inevitably tear into various parts the global economic system. Illustratively, water was at the heart of the agricultural challenges that caused the unprecedented volatility in food prices between 2007 and 2010. As economies grow and societies develop more water is needed to match the accelerating demand for food and obtain energy to supply the rapidly increasing urban and industrial systems. At the same time rainfall and weather patterns shift and rivers and groundwater sources are becoming more polluted.

This report is divided into four sections: (i) global trends in water security issues and how these can affect global stability in the future; (ii) drivers of transboundary water management conflicts in Central and South Asia; (iii) overview of the four critical international basins that Afghanistan shares with neighbouring countries; and (iv) recommendations by experts for improving water management and avoiding conflict over transboundary water resources.

PDF (15 Pages):  201310_CFC_Afghanistan_Transboundary_Resources_final

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Robert Young Pelton: My Refs on Afghanistan

08 Wild Cards
Robert Young Pelton
Robert Young Pelton

The last census taken in Afghanistan was in the 70's. The UN and other humanitarian agencies have done surveys with gaps for “dangerous” areas. The finite answer is that no one knows how many Afghans there are let alone census quality demographic information.

Here is a typical study with the usual disclaimers: http://measuredhs.com/pubs/pdf/FR248/FR248.pdf
Taliban: Once again you hit a sore spot with the U.S. focus on the region. “Anti Government Forces” run the spectrum from foreign jihadis to squabbling political/tribal/ethnic factions.The taliban flow into regions evacuated by the US military and rapidly tax and press gang the population into a cohesive force. When special operations troops are present, their  numbers are reduced. In the south there is a significant support and once again no hard numbers.  We didn't count the Viet Cong in Viet-Nam, and we have failed to count the Taliban in Afghanistan.  The short answer is “enough.”
This is as good as it gets with the same caveats for “dangerous” areas…the places the talibs thrive.
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Smart Planet: Fukushima Now a Global Disaster

03 Environmental Degradation, 07 Health, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Proliferation, 08 Wild Cards, 11 Society, Earth Intelligence

smartplanet logoFukushima nuclear disaster now global environmental problem

The Japanese government has asked for help — but is the plea two years too late?

Despite previous assurances, the Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster continues to contaminate the world’s oceans — and the Japanese government is finally asking for international help.

The March 2011 power plant meltdown was the worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl, and after frequent attempts to stem contamination — including the use of ice rings and the construction of a second processing plant to filter radioactive particles from contaminated water — the Japanese government has finally asked for global aid to stem radioactive leaks entering the Pacific Ocean, which is endangering the world’s food supply and ecosystems.

At a conference on Sunday, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said:

“We are wide open to receive the most advanced knowledge from overseas to contain the problem. My country needs your knowledge and expertise.”

Despite Abe’s comments to the International Olympic Committee last month that the leaks were “under control,” untold thousands of tons of radioactive liquid have entered the world’s oceans, with plant operator Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO) reporting a new leak this week caused by human error, and a spill of 80,000 gallons in August.

Via: IBM Times

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NIGHTWATCH: Mullah Omar Eid Message — Commentary on Internal Divisions and Challenges Suggested By the Message

08 Wild Cards, Cultural Intelligence

Afghanistan: On 14 October, on the eve of the Muslim observance of Eid al Adha, Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Omar published his annual greeting for this occasion. Omar always uses his greetings for religious exhortation as well as political guidance. Excerpts on political guidance follow.

“Muslim brothers,

Continue reading “NIGHTWATCH: Mullah Omar Eid Message — Commentary on Internal Divisions and Challenges Suggested By the Message”

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Penguin: Is World Waking Up to Saudi-Israeli Threat?

04 Inter-State Conflict, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence
Who, Me?
Who, Me?

Conclusion up front.  When will the Arabs AND the Americans wake up?

And the Israeli-Saudi axis will keep blossoming. Few in the Middle East know that an Israeli company – with experience in repressing Palestinians – is in charge of the security in Mecca. (See here and here (in French)). If they knew – with the House of Saud's hypocrisy once more revealed – the Arab street in many a latitude would riot en masse.

One thing is certain; Bandar Bush, as well as the Saudi-Israeli axis, will pull no punches to derail any rapprochement between Washington and Tehran. As for the Bigger Picture, the real “international community” may always dream that one day Washington elites will finally see the light and figure out that the US-Saudi strategic alliance sealed in 1945 between Franklin D Roosevelt and King Abdul Aziz ibn Saud makes absolutely no sense.

THE ROVING EYE
Fear and loathing in House of Saud
By Pepe Escobar

Every sentient being with a functional brain perceives the possibility of ending the 34-year Wall of Mistrust between Washington and Tehran as a win-win situation.

Here are some of the benefits:

The price of oil and gas from the Persian Gulf would go down;

Washington and Tehran could enter a partnership to fight Salafi-jihadis (they already did, by the way, immediately after 9/11) as well as coordinate their policies in Afghanistan to keep the Taliban in check post-2014;

Continue reading “Penguin: Is World Waking Up to Saudi-Israeli Threat?”

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NIGHTWATCH: Pakistan Musharraf Back Into Exile?

08 Wild Cards

Pakistan: Update. A local court ordered Musharraf remanded in custody for 14 days, pending further proceedings in the murder case connected with the Red Mosque.

Comment: At the time the remand order was made, the Islamabad High Court rejected a petition for Musharraf's name to be added to the Exit Control List, which would prevent him from leaving the country. That is a strong indicator that the murder charges will be dropped because the government wants Musharraf to return to self-imposed exile. He will not stand trial, but he must leave Pakistan. He remains under house arrest in his villa which the courts designated a temporary sub-jail.