I've got to tell you — Clapper scares me. I have access to lot of stuff that his people write and it's scary. USD(I) is trying to stick its nose into tents where they aren't wanted.
This report was prepared by the USCG Intelligence Coordination Center (ICC) in support of the Yemen Virtual Intelligence Team Community of Interest (COI) regarding the current political, military, economic, and social situations in Yemen.
KEY ISSUES
• The Yemeni Government’s internal northern war against the Zaidi Shia or “Huthi” rebels escalated with the August 2009 government offensive. The continuing sectarian and separatist conflict is responsible for the 77,000 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in Northern Yemen since the
beginning of the conflict in 2004.
• Increased counter-terrorism measures in Iraq and Saudi Arabia have driven the newly formed al-Qa’ida in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP) to Yemen, where it has been responsible for as many as 30 attacks on Westerners, oil infrastructure, and security and government targets.
• The number of Somali and Ethiopian immigrants crossing into Yemen this year rose to 50,400, as they flee famine, drought, war, and persecution at home. Though Yemen grants automatic asylum to immigrants who prove persecution, there is increasing concern about the serious economic burden
this immigration is creating within Yemen.
WASHINGTON — President Obama has picked Lt. Gen. James R. Clapper Jr. as director of national intelligence, tapping a retired officer with decades of experience to improve coordination of the nation’s sprawling spy apparatus amid increasing threats at home and escalating operations abroad.
Mr. Obama plans to announce his choice in the Rose Garden on Saturday, two weeks after forcing Adm. Dennis C. Blair out of the spymaster job, according to administration officials, who insisted on anonymity to disclose the decision before the formal ceremony.
Phi Beta Iota: This alone–a farce on top of a farce–makes him unsuited to the position. Obama and Gates know what they want: to continue Grand Theft Intel as the same time that Grand Theft Pentagoncontinues the looting of the public treasury. If Congress can rediscover its integrity and invite former Senators such as David Boren (D-OK), Pat Roberts (R-KS), and Bob Graham (D-FL) as well as Senator Sam Nunn (D-GA), they might discover the universal condemnation of “business as usual,” which is precisely what this nominee represents. Whatever claims are made about transformation or revolution will at best be pap and at worst a deliberate breach of trust in lying to the Congress. Dick Cheney would be proud of what passes for leadership in the Department of Defense today.
Four actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and none improved in May 2010, according to the new issue of the International Crisis Group’s monthly bulletin CrisisWatch, released today.
Israeli commandos killed at least nine people when they raided a flotilla of ships carrying humanitarian aid to Gaza on 31 May. Full details are not yet clear but the incident has already thrown into question recently launched proximity talks between the Palestinians and Israel. The international community has been swift to condemn Israel’s actions and the UN Security Council has called for an impartial investigation. However, the event has underscored the failure of a much broader policy for which Israel is not solely responsible. Many in the international community have been complicit in isolating Gaza in the hope of weakening Hamas, an approach that has ultimately harmed the people of Gaza without loosening Hamas's control.
May also saw renewed violence in the streets of Bangkok. Clashes between anti-government Red Shirt protesters and security forces that resulted in scores of deaths in April escalated this month, leaving at least 54 people dead. Soldiers removed the Red Shirts from the capital on 19 May and the government has since lifted a curfew imposed on Bangkok and 28 other provinces. But a state of emergency remains and divisions between the Thai establishment and the protesters, many of whom support former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, have widened. The government has so far failed to address the underlying causes of the protests, which are likely to have long-term implications for Thailand’s stability.
Tensions continued to mount on the Korean Peninsula after investigators announced that a South Korean ship that sunk in March had been hit by a North Korean torpedo. Pyongyang continues to deny responsibility for the sinking which killed 46 people. With Seoul now threatening to take the case to the UN Security Council, recent events have highlighted the challenges facing South Korea – as well as China and the international community more broadly – in dealing with its volatile northern neighbour.
Security also deteriorated in India, where suspected Maoist rebels derailed a train on 28 May leaving at least 147 civilians dead. The Maoists have denied responsibility, but the incident has once again underlined the government’s failure to curb escalating insurgent violence that has become increasingly deadly in recent months.
Israel-Turkey-Hamas: Four ships from the Gaza-bound flotilla that was raided on 31 May Israeli naval forces have arrived at the port of Ashdod, Israel, accompanied by Israeli warships, Al Jazeera reported.
According to Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi, the Israeli soldiers that intercepted the Gaza-bound aid flotilla acted in self-defense, and violence aboard the Mavi Marmara, one of the aid ships, was instigated by those aboard the ship, The Jerusalem Post reported 31 May. Ashkenazi said passengers aboard most of the ships were activists but the Mavi Marmara, the only ship on which violence took place, was sponsored by what he termed an “extremist organization” the Turkish non-governmental organization Insani Yardim Vakfi.
International Reaction: Every country in the world that pays attention to the Middle East or contains a mosque has condemned or denounced Israel. Pakistan has called for Muslim countries to act in concert in peaceful coercion of Israel.
NIGHTWATCH Comment: NightWatch assesses that US diplomacy for a Middle East peace plan is the actual target of the Israeli naval action. Israel has just demonstrated that the US cannot control Israel, undermining any confidence Arab countries place in US promises relating to Israeli behavior. Israel refuses to be bound by US promises.
For the past several years Americans have been inundated by reams of journalistic puff pieces extolling the virtues of the new US Counterinsurgency (COIN) Strategy documented by General Petraeus in his much ballyhooed COIN manual — which for the most part was a merely regurgitation of the failed thinking of French Marshal Lyautey's ink spot strategy (that counterinsurgent forces should aim to secure an ever expanding geographic zone of security with each new area secured providing a basis for further spreading, and so on.)
It is becoming clear, however, the showpiece of this new strategy, the Marjah operation, has failed to deliver on the promised security improvements to the people, and in the words of the theater commander, General Stanley McChrystal, has become a “bleeding ulcer.”
Coupled with the deadlines imposed by President President Obama, when he approved McChrystal's ill-thought out plan last Fall, notwithstanding the cogent misgivings expressed by Ambassador Eikenberry, it is now clear that McChrystal is under mounting pressure to deliver some progress by the end of the year.
Indeed, hair may be on fire at McChrystal's Bagram headquarters. Rumors are circulating in military circles of backbiting and finger pointing, as well as complaints that MacChrystal is being set up as a fall guy, while his boss, General Petraeus, skates to a Republican presidential nomination in 2012.
NightWatch Puzzler. How would US forces use unpiloted aircraft for tactical support in a Korean fight in which the US would not have unchallenged control of the airspace? This is a question raised by Air Force Lt Gen David Deptula, the USAF intelligence chief, in multiple presentations. What would be the fall back resource for tactical intelligence collection?
The questions are not about North Korean air force capabilities, but about the tens of thousands of very effective shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles that have been used to shoot down off course US helicopters three times in the past 50 years. North Korea is useful in reminding folks that conventional war threats persist and make counterinsurgency look like choir practice.
NightWatch NightWatchis an executive level intelligence recap drawn from domestic and international reporting provided free five nights a week via an informative email.
Mr. John McCreary is the NightWatch editor. John spent 38 years serving the Department of Defense Intelligence as a strategic analyst, most of that time in the Directorate of Intelligence (J2) office of the Joint Staff serving the Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) and the Secretary of Defense.
This report was prepared by the USCG Intelligence Coordination Center (ICC) in support of the Yemen Virtual Intelligence Team Community of Interest (COI) regarding the current political, military, economic, and social situations in Yemen.
