Category: 04 Inter-State Conflict

Posted on

NIGHTWATCH: Weak Signal from Algeria – Anti-US Forces Up Their Game

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Justice, 09 Terrorism, 10 Security, 11 Society, Civil Society, Government, Military
Click on Image to Enlarge
Click on Image to Enlarge

Algeria-US: Update. A senior Algerian official said that one of the terrorists captured at the In Amenas gas plant said under interrogation that some of the dead Egyptian terrorists also participated in the attack on the US Consulate in Benghazi last year. Three terrorists are in custody.

The official said the terrorists staged in southern Libya with arms purchased in Tripoli, Libya. He also said, “This is the result of the Arab Spring…. I hope the Americans are conscious of this.”

Comment: There is no way to corroborate the detainee's statement. What is worth noting is that the Algerian official's statements help explain why the Algerians might have had few qualms about assaulting the terrorists, despite the risk to foreigners. The Algerian government expects more attacks and the outcome will probably not be much different for foreigners.

The government has opposed US policy in the Arab world, especially the overthrow of the Qadhafi government. Some officials are making it very clear they hold American policy ultimately responsible for the gas plant attack in Algeria, the invasion of northern Mali by Islamist fighters and future attacks to come.

Americans working in Algeria are at increased risk from terrorists. Moreover, their safety does not appear to be a major factor in government planning for rescue operations.

Continue reading “NIGHTWATCH: Weak Signal from Algeria – Anti-US Forces Up Their Game”

Posted on

NIGHTWATCH: Mali Out of Algeria — French Fighting Algerians Not Displaced Libyans + Mali RECAP

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 08 Wild Cards, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Ineptitude, Military

Algeria: Islamist militants, apparently affiliated with al Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, seized a natural gas facility in east-central Algeria early Wednesday. The 20 or so attackers took as hostages up to 41 foreign supervisors, technicians and workers. They include at least 13 Norwegians and seven Americans, plus one Irishman, and a number of Japanese and British citizens. Two workers died in the attack.

The group announced that this attack was in retaliation for the French use of Algerian airspace to mount their attack against Islamist rebels in Mali. The attack group reportedly is led by a militant named Mokhtar Belmokhtar, an Algerian. He claimed that his group would release the hostages if the French stopped their operations in Mali.

During this Watch, Algerian forces have surrounded the plant and the situation is in a standoff.

Comment: Despite French warnings about retaliation, this plant in eastern Algeria undertook no increased security measures. The salient features of the Islamists in Mali to date are their organization and discipline. Today's action adds to their military repertoire communications connectivity with sympathetic groups in Algeria. The Islamists threatened retaliation over the weekend and they have been as good as their word.

Today's attack and hostage-taking occurred a long way from Mali. The al-Qaida franchise in the Saharan region is far more sophisticated and coordinated than the Pashtun and Uzbek tribal fighters in Afghanistan or the tribal Arabs in Yemen. Southern Algeria appears to be their base of operations, not LIbya.

Mali: Malian and French ground troops clashed with Islamic rebels in Diabaly on 16 January. The French-Malian force has not yet recaptured the village.

Mauritania reportedly has increased its border patrols, reducing the rebel ability to operate with impunity from Mauritanian territory.

Comment:  A prominent narrative in the English language press is that the jihadists and Islamist rebels who seized northern Mali, plus their weapons, came from Libya. In fact, the information in the public domain indicates they came from Algeria and maintain connectivity with other Algerian Islamist groups. The attack at the gas facility at In Amenas, Algeria, tends to reinforce that judgment.

The significance is that the Islamist takeover of northern Mali was not a ripple effect from the inept NATO management of the Libyan uprising. It is a more sinister and well planned expansion of the Algerian Islamist rebels, who form the core of al Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb. These are tough guys.

The French are not fighting Libyan terrorists in Mali. They are fighting Algerians [armed by Americans] …again. Apparently several thousand of them.

Continue reading “NIGHTWATCH: Mali Out of Algeria — French Fighting Algerians Not Displaced Libyans + Mali RECAP”

Posted on

NIGHTWATCH: French with UK Lift & Africans Handle Mali — SOF in Africa at Greater Risk? Islamists and Food Security — Islamists versus Separatists

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 11 Society, Cultural Intelligence
Click on Image to Enlarge
Click on Image to Enlarge

Mali-France: Last Friday, France began its direct intervention in the Malian civil war, at the request of the Bamako government after Islamists, terrorist and jihadis captured a key town on the road from the north to Bamako. The immediate French objective was to stop the jihadis at Konna and to deter them from moving farther south to capture Bamako. Konna had been the boundary between the Islamist and government held regions.

French Rafale fighter jets bombed Islamist rebel targets in central Mali for three days. With French Air Force support, Malian forces – almost certainly with French ground forces –recaptured Konna on Saturday, a day after it was seized by Islamist rebels.

A Malian rebel spokesman said the French also bombed targets in the towns of Gao, Lere and Douentz, over the weekend.

France's Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said French intervention on Friday had prevented rebels from seizing Bamako itself. He said air raids would continue in the coming days. He also said that France has deployed about 550 soldiers to Mali, split between Bamako and the town of Mopti, 500 km northeast, as part of “Operation Serval” – named after an African wildcat.

The French foreign minister made it clear that France was now targeting Islamist bases in the north of Mali and said Algeria, which shares a long border with Mali, had given permission for its air space to be used for bombing raids “without limit”.

Islamist rebels reportedly were abandoning Timbuktu and other northern towns to try to escape the French air attacks for which they have no defense.

Continue reading “NIGHTWATCH: French with UK Lift & Africans Handle Mali — SOF in Africa at Greater Risk? Islamists and Food Security — Islamists versus Separatists”

Posted on

Warren Pollock: Interview with John Xenakis on China and Japan, Syria, Turkey, & Iran, The Next War (Audio)

04 Inter-State Conflict

AUDIO Published on Jan 12, 2013

A talk between John Xenakis and Warren Pollock recorded in August of 2012. This is being re-posted because some of the points we talked about five months ago are first gaining traction in the press, and then they are getting spun incorrectly.

Sunni Shi-ite War in Middle East?  Turkey and Kurdish conflict?

Continue reading “Warren Pollock: Interview with John Xenakis on China and Japan, Syria, Turkey, & Iran, The Next War (Audio)”

Posted on

NIGHTWATCH: Chinese Using Senkaku Islands Dispute to Experiment with Managing “Total War” Across All Domains

02 China, 03 Economy, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 10 Security, 11 Society, IO Sense-Making

Japan-China: Bloomberg has published an excellent report that describes the economic consequences of Japan's dispute with China over ownership of the Senkaku Islands. No other news outlet has published a comparably insightful and detailed account.

The first point the journalists made is that trade relations between China and Japan multiply the costs of a territorial dispute. Japan's trade with China is valued at more than $300 billion per year, which is potentially at risk.

A Chinese boycott of Japanese imports would hurt China but might already have resulted in a reduction of GDP, according to Bloomberg citing JPMorgan Chase, because of reduced Chinese purchases of Japanese goods.

Ripple effects in China from boycotts of Japanese manufactures put at risk the jobs of millions of Chinese who work in Japanese industries in China. Japanese auto sales declined. Air travel cancellations increased in both countries. One Japanese department store retailer closed 60 of 169 stores because of anti-Japanese vandalism and threats.

Comment: The key point is that global economic integration magnifies the consequences of international disputes. Interdependency means both sides seriously suffer economically, although security incidents result in no casualties. Japan might have sustained a .5 per cent decline in GDP in the last quarter of 2012, essentially because of Chinese hostile, nationalistic responses to the islands dispute.

Both sides got hurt, but China can absorb the consequences more than Japan.

Another key point is that the dispute shows how the Chinese fight in every kind of battle space – at sea, in the air, on the land, in cyber space, in international political space and in economic space. Total warfare means total to the Chinese. They are experimenting with that in the Senkakus dispute.

Continue reading “NIGHTWATCH: Chinese Using Senkaku Islands Dispute to Experiment with Managing “Total War” Across All Domains”

Posted on

Mini-Me: Kerry-Hagel as Obama Attempt to Change Direction Away from War and Toward Domestic Reconstruction

02 Diplomacy, 03 Economy, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 07 Other Atrocities, 10 Security, 11 Society, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, DoD, Government, Military, Peace Intelligence
Who? Mini-Me?
Who? Mini-Me?

Huh?

A view of what's really behind Hagel nomination fight

From CNN's “Early Start”

January 8, 2013

EXTRACT:

CNN: Peter wrote what I think is (one of the) most … interesting and compelling articles about the Hagel nomination, explaining it perhaps better than anyone I've seen, including the president.

The first paragraph of the piece, you write, it may prove the most consequential foreign policy appointment of his presidency because the struggle over Hagel is a struggle over whether Obama can change the terms of the foreign policy debate. Explain that for me.

Peter Beinart: I think so far, the debate about military action in Iran has been conducted by and large in Washington, as if Iraq and Afghanistan didn't happen.

As if we haven't learned anything from the disaster (of) these two wars over the last 10 years. I think the real struggle between Hagel and his foes is he wants to bring some of the lessons in to the Iran debate that we learned about (Iraq) and Afghanistan.

He talks very compellingly about the fact wars once launched can't be fully controlled. He is very cognizant of the enormous financial cost that these wars have imposed on the United States, and I think the heart of the hostility is the fear that his recognition about what happened in Afghanistan and Iraq will make taking us to war in Iran harder.

Hagel vows to fight ‘distortions'

[Note: An Open Source Agency (OSA) controlled by Kerry-Hagel would go a very long way toward fighting the information pathologies that abound in Washington.]

CNN: You suggest there are no consequences for the Iraq War in terms of those who supported or imposed it.

Continue reading “Mini-Me: Kerry-Hagel as Obama Attempt to Change Direction Away from War and Toward Domestic Reconstruction”

Posted on

Berto Jongman: Informed Comment on US Drone Strikes

04 Inter-State Conflict, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism, Corruption, Government, Military, Officers Call
Berto Jongman
Berto Jongman

Being read in Europe and Asia.

The Secret History of US Drone Strikes in 2012 (Woods et al.)

write at the Bureau of Investigative Journalism:

EXTRACTS

PAKISTAN

Drone strikes in Pakistan are now at their lowest level in five years, as Islamabad protests almost every attack. The CIA also appears to have abandoned ‘signature strikes’ on suspected militants fitting certain patterns of behaviour – at least for the present. Almost all attacks in recent months have been against named al Qaeda and other militant leaders.

As drone strikes fell in Pakistan they rose steeply in Yemen, as US forces aided a major military campaign to oust al Qaeda and other Islamists from southern cities. A parallel CIA targeted killing programme killed numerous alleged militants, many of them named individuals. Yet US officials took more than three months to confirm that American planes or drones had killed 12 civilians.

. . . . . . . .

One reason for a decline in Pakistani strikes may have been growing hostility. Some 74% of polled citizens said they viewed the US as an enemy, and uniquely Pakistan bucked a global trend to register as the only nation favouring Mitt Romney for president. In contrast, the American public appears to staunchly support covert drones – in one poll 83% of respondents were in favour of the strikes.

The British High Court was called on in April to look into US covert drone strikes and possible British co-operation, which some lawyers in the UK insist is illegal. Days before the end of the year the High Court declined to investigate. After years of inactivity, US and Pakistani courts also began to consider legal questions surrounding the campaign.

Continue reading “Berto Jongman: Informed Comment on US Drone Strikes”