Chuck Spinney: Blindly Against Syria, Another War

03 Environmental Degradation, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Proliferation, 08 Wild Cards, Idiocy, Peace Intelligence
Chuck Spinney
Chuck Spinney

The “humanitarian” drumbeat for launching yet another Middle Eastern war against the Assad regime in Syria is increasing.  Here are three reports that may help you think about the war question:

Attachment I, Syria crisis: US signals intent to take action against Assad regime (Guardian 26 August) lays out the case for attacking Syria as enunciated by Secretary of State John Kerry.

In Attachment II, US Set to Launch ‘Iraq, The Sequel', in Syria (Ron Paul Institute, 24 August), my friend Daniel McAdams lays out an argument against intervention.

Think about the points made in these opposing views. Decide which you agree most with.

Now read Attachment III, Gangs of Latakia: The Militiafication of the Assad Regime (Syria Comment Blog, 24 July).

Aron Lund describes the situation in Syria, with special attention to the evolving decentralization of Assad regime into a loose confederation of pro-regime militias, with overlapping but sometimes competing agendas.  While most readers are probably familiar with the confused nature of the competing rebel militias, the militiaization of the Assad regime and what it means for his ability to control events (like the employment of chemical weapons)is not well understood and almost never discussed in the mainstream media.

Although I lean toward McAdams argument, I submit that it does not really matter, because if Lund’s analysis is half-way close to being correct, the rational case against intervention wins hands down, for one simple reason: Questions of war or peace should not be determined by the arrogance of ignorance.

Continue reading “Chuck Spinney: Blindly Against Syria, Another War”

Berto Jongman: US Framing Syria? Other Reports on Syria

03 Environmental Degradation, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Proliferation, 08 Wild Cards, Peace Intelligence
Berto Jongman
Berto Jongman

YouTube US Framing Syria

Syrian Attack By US Within 48 Hours?

Saudis offer Russia secret oil deal if it drops Syria

Readout Of Secret Talks Between Putin And Saudi Intelligence Chief

See Also (from 4th Media):

Lavrov Warns against NATO Military Action as UN Inspectors Were Targeted by Snipers

Iran Warns against Military Intervention in Syria

President Bashar al-Assad: “Syria Will Never Become a Western Puppet State”

Syria: “If US Attacks Us, We’ll Attack Israel”

NIGHTWATCH: Syria Who Done It? US Missiles Soon, Never Mind the Forensic Evidence….

03 Environmental Degradation, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Proliferation, 08 Wild Cards, Peace Intelligence

26 August 2013

Syria: Update. UN Secretary-general Ban Ki-moon said on Monday. “I just spoke to my Under-Secretary-General for Disarmament, Ms. Angela Kane, who is now in Damascus to oversee the investigation. The first day of investigation was carried out by Dr. Sellstrom and his team,” said Ban in a statement issued by his spokesperson.

“What I am told at this time is that their vehicle was attacked by an unknown sniper, but despite such very difficult circumstances, our team returned to Damascus and replaced their car and proceeded to a suburb of Damascus to carry on their investigation.”

According to the statement, during their first day of investigation, the UN experts “visited two hospitals,” “interviewed witnesses, survivors and doctors” and also “collected some samples” at the site of the latest alleged use of chemical weapons on Aug. 21 in the suburbs of Damascus.

Special comment. The question whether Syria used some form of chemical weapons against the opposition has moved beyond the domain of intelligence judgment into the domain of forensic science. Stentorian statements about blame before the facts are adduced are imprudent except as political theater. Now is the time for proof, not for bombast. It is time for patience while science does its work.

Inferences of guilt derived from judgments about how Syrian leaders should behave if they wanted to prove they did not execute a chemical attack indulge the most basic and persistent reason for US intelligence analytical failures: mirror imaging, i.e., the notion that Syrian leaders would act the way Americans might act under similar circumstances. Arabs seldom behave the way Americans behave.

The initial burden of proving an accusation always is on the party that makes the accusation. In this instance it is the Syrian opposition, whose evidence to date in the public domain falls short of establishing a prime facie case that a weapon of mass destruction was used. Something happened, but what remains to be determined.

The mainstream press has insisted that the Syrian government must prove it did not execute a chemical attack. However, elementary evidence law courses all over the world teach that it is impossible to prove a negative. Everyone knows that! Somehow the mainstream press persists in getting this entirely wrong.

The open source evidence and Feedback from Brilliant, Genuine experts on chemical warfare and its effects reinforce the NightWatch judgment that Readers should retain healthy skepticism about what took place east of Damascus on 21 August and who was responsible.

Expert feedback asserts without qualification that neurotoxins, such as Sarin, are not evident, despite the bombastic allegations of the Syrian opposition on 26 August. Feedback from experts also indicates that crowd control agents would explain the symptoms, casualties and other evidence in the public domain.

Meanwhile, Syrian government forces are continuing operations to clear the eastern suburbs of Damascus with success.

25 August 2013

Syria: Update. International news outlets predict US missile attacks against Syria. The overwhelming consensus is that Syria used chemical weapons of some sort, but the evidence in the public domain that supports this judgment is weak.

The government in Damascus has agreed to allow the UN inspection team to visit the site. The mandate of the 20-person team is to determine whether chemical weapons were used in the latest incident as well as in three others. The mandate does not include an assignment of blame.

Comment: Doctors without Borders reported 3,500 patients were treated for symptoms of chemical exposure at their three hospitals, of whom 350 or so died. The humanitarian organization did not say whom they thought was responsible.

SchwartzReport: War and Hate

01 Poverty, 02 Infectious Disease, 03 Environmental Degradation, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 06 Genocide, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Proliferation, 09 Justice, 09 Terrorism, 10 Security, 10 Transnational Crime, 11 Society, Cultural Intelligence, Government, IO Deeds of War, Military, Officers Call

Endless war is the basis for the abrogation of our civil liberties, the suspension our legal guarantees, and the assault on journalism. It is the cancer that is destroying our democracy, and our passivity is what makes it possible.

Legal War?
WILLIAM BOARDMAN – Nation of Change

We are in the endless war because of the stupidity of American foreign policy beginning with the Reagan Administration, which was notably inept. And, thanks to Dick Cheney and the Neocons, we have transformed what was once a deep affection for Americans in the Arab world, which I experienced in the two years I lived in Egypt in the 70s, into! a deep and abiding hatred which will endure for generations.

They Hate Us, They Really Hate Us
MARC LYNCH, Associate Professor of Political science and International Affairs at George Washington University – Foreign Policy

Berto Jongman: Pentagon Admits Chemical Weapons Use at Fallujah

03 Environmental Degradation, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Proliferation
Berto Jongman
Berto Jongman

Pentagon Reverses Position and Admits U.S. Troops Used White Phosphorus Against Iraqis in Fallujah

The U.S. government has now admitted its troops used white phosphorus as an incendiary weapon against Iraqis during the assault on Fallujah a year ago. Chemical weapons experts say such attacks are in violation of international law banning the use of chemical weapons. We speak with columnist George Monbiot and the news director of RAI TV, the Italian TV network that produced the film “Fallujah: The Hidden Massacre.” [includes rush transcript]

Read full article.

SchwartzReport: Fukushima Toward Millions of Deaths?

03 Environmental Degradation, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Proliferation

schwartzreport newThis article may seem somewhat over the top but as I keep checking it appears to be a pretty good representation of a disaster that is getting worse and worse. In a couple of year's time we're going to truly discover the impact this is going to have on the U.S. West Coast, but things are already beginning to wash up. No one has any idea what the impact on the marine ecosystem is going to be. The effect on Japan is o! nly beginning to be understood, but its true scale is still unknown.

As if that weren't enough the American nuclear site at Hanford also has leaking tanks, and there are more sites as well. We are going to see more and more of this as the aging nuclear infrastructure breaks down. The quicker nuclear plants are closed the better. Fukushima and Chernobyl stand as warnings we must heed.

Fukushima Apocalypse: Years of ‘duct Tape Fixes’ Could Result in ‘Millions of Deaths'
RT (Russia)