Patrick Meier: Big Data & Disaster Response: Even More Wrong Assumptions

Crowd-Sourcing, Data, Design, Geospatial, Governance, Mobile, P2P / Panarchy
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Patrick Meier
Patrick Meier

Big Data & Disaster Response: Even More Wrong Assumptions

“Arguing that Big Data isn’t all it’s cracked up to be is a straw man, pure and simple—because no one should think it’s magic to begin with.” Since citing this point in my previous post on Big Data for Disaster Response: A List of Wrong Assumptions, I’ve come across more mischaracterizations of Big (Crisis) Data. Most of these fallacies originate from the Ivory Towers; from social scientists who have carried out one or two studies on the use of social media during disasters and repeat their findings ad nauseam as if their conclusions are the final word on a very new area of research.

The mischaracterization of “Big Data and Sample Bias”, for example, typically arises when academics point out that marginalized communities do not have access to social media. First things first: I highly recommend reading “Big Data and Its Exclusions,” published by Stanford Law Review. While the piece does not address Big Crisis Data, it is nevertheless instructive when thinking about social media for emergency management. Secondly, identifying who “speaks” (and who does not speak) on social media during humanitarian crises is of course imperative, but that’s exactly why the argument about sample bias is such a straw man—all of my humanitarian colleagues know full well that social media reports are not representative. They live in the real world where the vast majority of data they have access to is unrepresentative and imperfect—hence the importance of drawing on as many sources as possible, including social media. Random sampling during disasters is a Quixotic luxury, which explains why humanitarian colleagues seek “good enough” data and methods.

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Rickard Falkvinge: Your obedience without question is mandatory….

Collective Intelligence, Cultural Intelligence
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Rickard Falkvinge
Rickard Falkvinge

Remember, Remember…

Posted: 05 Nov 2013 07:19 AM PST

GuyFawkesMask_photo_by_MattCunnelly

Civil Liberties:  “…and all he demanded in return was your silent, obedient consent.” On this Fifth of November, the address from V is more accurate and relevant than ever:

…so let’s take a moment to reflect on the fact that liberty and freedoms of speech and expression are more than words; they are perspectives.

SchwartzReport: Lies & Truths That Matter

Commercial Intelligence, Cultural Intelligence, Earth Intelligence
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schwartzreport newWe can't say we haven't been warned.

Is It Too Late to Prepare for Climate Change?
ELIZABETH KOLBERT – The New Yorker

This is a view from inside the church establishment. Even they see what is happening with their late teen early twenties cohort, and it is not a happy story for them. As I read this, the extremism that is the hallmark of the Theocratic Right, and its obsession with “values” issues like marriage rights, LGBT rights, abortion just don't reflect the world view of young adults, who are walking away.

LifeWay Research Finds Reasons 18- to 22-Year-Olds Drop Out of Church
SCOTT MCCONNELL – Lifeway

Here is the latest on Fukushima and its effect on sealife. The news isn't getting any better.

Radiation From Japan Nuclear Plant Arrives on Alaska Coast
CBC News (Canada)

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Berto Jongman: Bits, Bytes, & Stuff

Cultural Intelligence
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Berto Jongman
Berto Jongman

Five Profound Choices Special Ops Face Next Year (RAND)
1.  Does size matter?
2.  Tactical frittering or strategic enduring impact?
3.  Fix the theater  special operations commands.
4.  Special operators' rhetoric and intent must become consistent and convincing.
5. Finally, fix leadership succession and institutionalization

See Also:

Brain Cells Are Like Little Universes

Cartels Pouting and Posturing on Facebook

Coming Food Riots of the 21st Century

Cumulative Radicalization (PDF)

Cybersecurity Ghettos — The Dangers Of…

Europe should create own spy agency

Stuart Umpleby: The Triple Bottom Line & Current Challenges

Collective Intelligence, Commercial Intelligence, Cultural Intelligence, Earth Intelligence, Peace Intelligence
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Stuart Umpleby
Stuart Umpleby

The triple bottom line — people, profits, planet — is a recent business concept.  See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triple_bottom_line. We are now facing major issues on all three:

1.  People.  The safety of people is threatened by a)  vulnerable cyber infrastructure.  See the National Geographic video American Blackout; and b) inequality leading to lower standards of living for the middle class.  See the recent books by Hedrick Smith, Joseph Stiglitz, and Jeffrey Sachs.

2.  Profits.  See the various films and books on the financial crisis.  For example, in the book Thirteen Bankers Simon Johnson, former chief economist at the IMF, and James Kwak say that “too big to fail is too big.”  Yet the banks are getting bigger and they have great influence in writing the laws on banking regulation.

3.  Planet.  I had heard that sea level might rise by 3 feet by the end of the century.  The National Geographic program Earth Under Water suggests perhaps as much as 16 feet in 100 years and another 16 feet in the next 100 years.  See .

These numbers may be high.  However, what actions should we be taking in order to minimize the problem and to prepare for whatever sea level rise occurs?

I think systems science, and reflexivity theory, would be helpful in understanding these phenomena.

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SmartPlanet: Thorium Trumps All Fuels As Energy Source

05 Energy
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smartplanet logoNobel physicist: Thorium trumps all fuels as energy source

GENEVA – It’s high time for the nuclear industry to overhaul its conventional technology and shift to radically different reactor designs based on thorium fuel, a Nobel Prize winning physicist said.

Carlo Rubbia
Carlo Rubbia

Carlo Rubbia, a former director of the CERN laboratory who shared the 1984 Nobel Prize in Physics, described thorium as having “absolute pre-eminence” over all other fuels including fossil fuels and uranium, the metallic element that has driven reactors since nuclear first started powering public grids in 1956.

“In order to be vigorously continued, nuclear power must be profoundly modified,” Rubbia said at the Thorium Energy Conference 2013, held on the CERN campus here last week.

Rubbia pointed out that thorium leaves less long-lived waste than uranium, is far more plentiful and is resistant to weapons proliferation, as I reported on my Weinberg blog. He also noted that thorium is effective at safely breeding more fuel, and that it has a much higher energy content than uranium or fossil fuels (see chart below), a characteristic that he said gives it “absolute pre-eminence…as a source of energy.”

Proponents of thorium disagree over the reactor technology that is best suited to optimize its characteristics. Unlike uranium, thorium is not “fissile,” so it needs to be coaxed into a reaction.

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NATO Watch: Four Questions — and 70-90 US Nuclear Weapons in Turkey, US Helping Turkey Go Nuclear By 2019?

NATO Civ-Mil Ctr
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Four questions not answered by NATO Defence Ministersnato watch

By Nigel Chamberlain and Ian Davis, NATO Watch

4 November 2013

www.natowatch.org Promoting a more transparent and accountable NATO

Four questions only:

1. Can NATO’s defence gap be bridged?
2. Why such slow progress on NATO support for Libya?
3. Are NATO and Russia going to cooperate to help eliminate Syrian chemical weapons
4. Where absolute secrecy prevails – absolutely [nuclear weapons in Europe and Turkey]

Read full commentary with links.