Journal: “Expert Judgement” vs. Public Intelligence

Collective Intelligence
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When one is brought up, professionally trained, in “systems thinking” and the importance of feedback loops, diversity, and integrity, everything else becomes pedestrian.  Today we highlight two books re-inventing the wheel so as to feature an extraordinarily useful but slighting incomplete oration on “expert judgement by our much-admired colleague at NIGHTWATCH, concluding with a list of books on Collective Intelligence as the engine for Epoch B Human Scale Integral Consciousness and Conscious Evolution….i.e. the antithesis of Washington, D.C. politics.

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We are beginning to see the emergence of a very earnest and most promising form of historical revisionis, a series of books testing “what if” hypotheses that revolve around “what if” our leaders had acted with integrity; “what if” our leaders had sought out all the facts, been transparent, not been selfish, not been corrupt?

Below is an excerpt from NIGHTWATCH (find the rest halfway down the page for 23 July 2009) at NIGHTWATCH 20090723 in a “Special Note on Porfessionalism in Analysis–worth a complete read!

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Review: The Resilient Earth–Science, Global Warming and the Future of Humanity

5 Star, Environment (Problems), Environment (Solutions), Science & Politics of Science
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5.0 out of 5 stars Pushes the Re-Set Button on Both Gore and Lomborg
October 3, 2009
Doug L. Hoffman and Allen Simmons
The more I read, the less I know and the more frustrated I grow with the insanity of academic, government, corporate, and non-governmental stovepipes of knowledge in isolation.

Right up front this book, read crossing the Atlantic from Madrid with a bad case of bronchitis, forces me to go back and downgrade my reviews of everything by Al Gore, and insert an update with apology and revisit for the work of The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World whose new book, Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming (Vintage) I am buying today as part of my apology. In the process of just doing that, I discovered Lomborg's edited work, Global Crises, Global Solutions and the first two words I saw, “Copenhagen Consensus,” sold me. Denmark is one of a tiny handful of “smart nations” and pioneered the citizen wisdom council concept that Jim Rough writes about in Society's Breakthrough!: Releasing Essential Wisdom and Virtue in All the People.

Opening quote on page 5: “Fedor Dostoevsky once said, `A man who lies to himself, and believes his own lies, becomes unable to recognize truth, either in himself or in anyone else.” What an epitaph for partisan governance based on lies.

Before I lay out my fly-leaf notes, a comment spanning all the books I have read:

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Journal: Afghanistan as Corruption Squared

Government, Policies, Threats
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Afghanistan Journal

(PoliticsDaily.com)

October 1, 2009

Obama's War: Take Your Time
By David Wood

One brigade commander, Col. Michael Howard, is on his fourth tour in Afghanistan and understands it like few others. Still, there are pieces of this war that stop him cold. One of them is government corruption. “It's a cancer without a cure in Afghanistan, and if we don't come up with a cure, it will cause us to fail,” Howard told me last month, biting off his words angrily.  . . . . . . .  Given the stakes, Biddle said, “it is appropriate for the commander in chief to be aggressively challenging what he's told by anybody.'

Phi Beta Iota: Truth really is stranger than fiction.  The White House is NOT getting the “full spectrum” intelligence it needs to make good decisions, for three simple reasons:

1.  No one with access who has both strategic holistic vision and the integrity to demand that the President be fully and properly briefed on the ten high-level threats, the twelve harmonizing policies, and the costs and consequences of ignoring 8 out of 10 threats and 9 out of 12 policies.  The President needs a mentor not a partisan nanny or a blindly obedient advisor.

2.  A secret intelligence community leadership unable to think for itself and actually generate strategic matrices for the President that are helpful.  Right now, using the long-standing OSS.Net, Inc. motto of “Information costs money, intellience makes money,” the US IC is a $75 billion a year sink-hole, largely worthless to the White House or Congress.

3.  The President is still wrapped in the partisan bubble that got him elected–like Bush-Cheney, when backed by Wall Street, his insiders know how to steal elections, but they do not know how to govern.  Phi Beta Iota persists in believing that Barack Obama could be the George Washington of the 21st Century, but he MUST find his own voice and a new set of advisors that combine strategic vision, integrity, and loyalty to the Constitution over the partisan crime family.

Worth a Look: New Society Publishers

Worth A Look
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For the first time we are posting a link twice, in both Professional Sites (as a publisher) and in Righteous Sites (as a contributor).  For some time now we have been struck by the consistent value and inherent righteousness of much of what this organization does.

They describe themselves as Deep Green for 25 Years, and in the introduction to their latest catalog, speak of “being addicted to ideas that promise to rebuild our culture on a more compassionate, sustainable basis.”

All good.  As will be evident from our review of The Resilient Earth, a book not published by New Society Publishers, the green movement leaves a lot to be desired in terms of coherence, holistic analysis, and plain common sense–Al Gore being a stricking example of smoke over substance.

Below are a few of the titles that represent the best of this earnest organization's offerings:

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2009 Re-Inventing Intelligence to Re-Engineer Earth

About the Idea, Articles & Chapters, Real Time
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Robert David STEELE Vivas
Robert David STEELE Vivas

Earth is at a tipping point. Changes to the planet that used to take 10,000 years now take three.  This means that both real-time science and real-time policy and decision-making will be the non-negotiable essence of success in the 21st Century.

Near-Earth Objects (NEO) are a more immediate threat than climate change; energy from geothermal, nuclear (as an intermediate solution), and combinations of solar, wind, and bacteria energy are desperately needed; and no nation, least of all the USA, is being intelligent about addressing the ten high-level threats to humanity or harmonizing policies and spending across all policies from Agriculture to Water.

Only a World Brain with an embedded EarthGame able to honestly depict “true costs” in near-real-time, will allow the eight demographic challengers to nurture and harvest the Earth instead of destroying it. Earth Intelligence Network, a 501c3 Public Charity, has come up with one three-part big idea for creating a prosperous world at peace:

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Journal: Paul Rahe and Charles Gasparino on Obama’s Implosion

Government, Policies, Policy, Reform, Strategy
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Burned by Obama:Wall St. execs feel betrayed

By CHARLES GASPARINO,September 29, 2009

Obama, according to Wall Street people who regularly deal with his economic and budget officials, is acting as if he has a blank check to do what he wants, while ignoring the longterm costs of his policies.

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Paul Rahe: Obama's wrecking crew

September 30, 200

When I was working on my book Soft Despotism, Democracy's Drift, I read a work that Walter Lippmann, the co-founder of The New Republic, published in 1937. In it, with an eye to the New Deal, he observed that, while

the partisans who are now fighting for the mastery of the modern world wear shirts of different colors, their weapons are drawn from the same armory, their doctrines are variations of the same theme, and they go forth to battle singing the same tune with slightly different words. . . .

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Review: The Sword of the Prophet

5 Star, America (Anti-America), Asymmetric, Cyber, Hacking, Odd War, Empire, Sorrows, Hubris, Blowback, Intelligence (Government/Secret)
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5.0 out of 5 stars Much More Than a Novel, This Is the Real Deal
October 2, 2009
Phillip Oliver Otts
As a recovering spy who has published and agitated for intelligence reform over the years, I generally have little patience for spy novels less the George Smiley series by John Le Carre. Been there, done that. This book is nothing short of sensational, and at $9 a huge value.

This book is so very good that I am making it one of THREE books I recommend to future spies and those who wish to understand the human side of the spy world today (or course there are many others but this one is special). The other two are still:

1. The Craft of Intelligence: America's Legendary Spy Master on the Fundamentals of Intelligence Gathering for a Free World

2. Without Cloak or Dagger : The truth about the new espionage–

I liked this book on multiple levels. It does for the clandestine service, where we were obscenely proud of having the highest alcoholism, adultery, divorce, and suicide rates in the US Government, what James Webb did for the abuse of military forces by craven politicians in Fields of Fire.

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