NIGHTWATCH Special Report: October in Afghanistan 27 November 2009
Taliban and other anti-government fighters have begun to go to winter quarters, in Pakistan or in Afghanistan. The fighting will drop somewhat during the winter, but in the core provinces of the Pashtun south, weather is not a factor.
Based on Taliban public statements, their attacks will remain focused on disruption of the overland truck lifeline for Afghan and NATO forces, mainly by using improvised bombs. In the face of renewed NATO resolve, the Taliban also will wait for the next opportunity to attempt to take power.
Taliban cannot defeat NATO forces, but NATO forces cannot defeat Taliban, especially without combat air support. The government in Kabul cannot survive without NATO forces, but by this time next year the Afghan forces will need more logistics and air support rather than combat soldiers, if the US and European NATO trainers are competent.
Phi Beta Iota: As US forces in Iraq get deeply serious about transitioning into “Advise & Assist” and we continue to observe the complete incapacity of the US civilian agencies (significantly hampered by Congressional mandates to “Buy American” that should be dumped immediately), the above NightWatch report suggests an opportunity. We put forward the idea of issuing a global challenge with particular reference to India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Turkey, for the provision of Muslim brigades able to replace US forces beginning imemdiately toward total US withdrawal from both countries by 4 July 2010. At the same time, we propose a Multinational Multiagency Multidisciplinary Multidomain Integrated Intelligence-Operations Center to be established in Istanbul for the purpose of orchestrating two “Berlin Airlifts,” one focused on Afghanistan and one on Iraq, to run for six months, with an emphasis on providing every citizen of these two countries with free cell service for life, clean water for life, and infrastructure independent energy. Do not think for an instant this is not possible. All it takes is integrity, and the adoption of Open Space Technology (OST) by Muslim facilitators engaging the local populations to establish “wish lists” for self-sufficiency that are fulfilled within the week of specification.