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Commenting on Berto Jongman: Modernizing Analytical Training + Robert Steele & RECAP
Remember the Gorge Carver-Gorge Allen contrasting mindsets in predicting the outcome in Vietnam. The optimistic Carver argued , “if, if, if, we’re going to win. The pessimistic Allen countered: “unless, unless, unless we’re going to lose.”
In more formal argumentation, the “ifs” and “unlesses” are the ‘key assumptions” or “key variables” that are intended to support the estimated prediction. What have we here? Rarely a path to the truth.