08 Wild Cards – Page 86 – Public Intelligence Blog

Post-Assad Syria: Turkey’s Perspective

I just finished reading the Bipartisan Policy Center‘s paper U.S. – Turkish Cooperation Towards A Post Assad Syria. I knew I had been missing nuance but I did not realize how much complexity there was in the relationship between the two countries.

First, Syria has been spilling refugees all over the region. Jordan is poor, Iraq is fragile and even their smaller contingent is causing trouble. Lebanon experiences a fragile balance of ethnic and sectarian tensions. The 420,000 new residents upset that balance and threaten to tip the country into chaos like it had in the 1980s.

Second, the Kurds were mostly at peace with Turkey until Syria fell into disorder. The Syrian government withdrew from Kurdish turf to reduce their interest in the fighting, then it is possible both Syria and Iran had a hand in setting the Kurdish PKK‘s insurgency back in motion against Turkey. Neither Iran nor Syria wants any trouble with the Kurds in their territory, both want to preserve the Shia arc from Iran to Syria, Sunni majority Turkey has been trending more Islamist in its thinking, and has chosen to back the Sunni majority rebellion in Syria.

The Turkish choice to focus on the Sunni aspect of the rebellion rather than an inclusive government that would respect the Alawite, Druze, and Christian minorities is a sticking point for the U.S. If things go badly Syria may become a bigger, badder, bloodier version of what Lebanon was like thirty years ago.

Continue reading “Neal Rauhauser: Syrian Refugees in All Directions, Destabilizing Region”

2013/06/17

NIGHTWATCH: Syria Escalates — WWIII Kick-Off?

08 Wild Cards, IO Deeds of War

Syria: Reports from Aleppo indicate fighting continues and the opposition has lost ground in outlying areas. The reports also indicate the main government offensive push has not yet begun.

North Korea-Syria: According to South Korean press, on 14 June, a “well-informed diplomatic source” said that “North Korea has dispatched chemical weapon technicians to Syria since the mid 1990s and transferred chemical agent synthesis methods and technology to manufacture warheads for chemical weapon delivery.”

Comment: Last week an unidentified source in a Saudi news outlet said that North Korean chemical warfare officers are assisting the government. There is no confirmation that North Korean advisors are assisting Syrian forces in the current fighting, but North Korea has sold arms, missiles, chemical weapons and nuclear technology to Syria since at least the mid-1980s.

In light of the US decision to arm rebels because it says Syria used chemical weapons, Syria would seem to have little reason to not use chemical weapons more freely, as tactical situations require. The North Koreans could help with that. Plus, North Korea has sent pilots and air defense units in past Middle East conflicts, invariably aiding the side that was fighting against the US and its proxies.

Iran-Syria: The British newspaper The Independent reported on Sunday that its sources said that Iran made a military decision to send a first contingent of 4,000 Iranian Revolutionary Guards to Syria to support Syrian government forces. The unidentified sources stated the decision was made before the outcome of the presidential election.

Comment: The Independent's report has not been corroborated, but it has gone viral on the Web. If confirmed, it would represent an Iranian escalation move in retaliation for the US decision to arm the Sunni rebels.

Egypt: For the record. President Mursi announced on the 15th, “We decided today to entirely break off relations with Syria and with the current Syrian regime.” He also said he had decided to close down the Syrian Embassy in Cairo. He also called for an end to Hezbollah's presence in Syria.

Continue reading “NIGHTWATCH: Syria Escalates — WWIII Kick-Off?”

2013/06/162013/06/16

Neal Rauhauser: Israel Has No Claim on Litani Waters [But Stealing Water — Lots Of It — from Aquifers]

08 Wild Cards, 12 Water, Corruption, Government, IO Deeds of War

Israel: No Claim On Litani Waters

Quality information on the Rivers Of The Fertile Cresent tends to be dense and technical, but there are occasional bits of political dynamite, such as this quote. The Fig. 1 mentioned is the above map of the Jordan & Litani river basins.

On the other hand, it is worthy to note that while analyzing the Lebanese part of the Jordan River Basin, no connection between the Litani River Basin and the Jordan River Basin was found in terms of surface flow, even though both basins lie close to each other (Fig. 1). The Litani basin was found to lie entirely in Lebanon. This result removes any ambiguity pertaining to the inclusion of the waters of the Litani River in any future water allocation scheme for the Jordan River Basin. As it was mentioned in the Johnston Plan and the Israeli “Cotton Plan”, some Israeli negotiators wished to include the Litani River in the Jordan River Basin plan (Amery 1998). Today, the inclusion of the Litani River is still present in the opinion of some politicians but these arguments are not credible since hydrological connections between the Litani and Jordan River Basin have not been proven (Medzini and Wolf 2004; Zeitoun et al. 2012).

Water has been a pressing concern for the region, driving the dispute between Arabs and Jews since Israel’s inception. This quote from a 1982 Christian Science monitor article reveals the entanglement of aquifers and state boundaries.

Two aquifers provide almost all of the groundwater for Northern and Central Israel, both arising in the West Bank. The shallower sandstone aquifer is recharged partly from runoff and percolation of rainwater falling on the former Jordanian lands. The deeper and more copious limestone aquifer is recharged largely or, possibly, entirely by rainwater from the West Bank.

The Litani River of Lebanon from 1993 is the best overview I have found regarding this situation and it notes interest in transferring a portion of the flow of the Litani to the south has existed for over a century. The web page looks to be the sort of thing that might vanish, so I preserved a copy of the content in Scribd.

Continue reading “Neal Rauhauser: Israel Has No Claim on Litani Waters [But Stealing Water — Lots Of It — from Aquifers]”

2013/06/162013/06/16

Berto Jongman: Explicit Photos of US Uniform Rapes of Iraqi Girls — and US Cover-Up Re-Surfacing in Asia and Europe

07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, DoD, Government, Idiocy, Military, Officers Call

Rape of Iraqi Women by US Forces as Weapon of War: Photos and Data Emerge

Phi Beta Iota: The rest of the world is sick of US misbehavior, upset at the continued posture of the US Government in covering up rather than remediating such persistent abuses, and saddened by the idiocy and passivity of the US public in the face of such atrocities. The national shame is enduring — and an obstacle to any possible progress on any front as long as the current Administration remains in lock-step with the mis-steps of its predecessor's crimes against humanity.

Three Explicit Photos and Full Article Below the Line

Continue reading “Berto Jongman: Explicit Photos of US Uniform Rapes of Iraqi Girls — and US Cover-Up Re-Surfacing in Asia and Europe”

2013/06/152013/06/15

Franklin Lamb: Obama, Surrounded by Liars and Untried Youths, Declares War on Syria — USA Working for Iran (Again)

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 05 Iran, 06 Genocide, 06 Russia, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Proliferation, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism, Government, Idiocy, Peace Intelligence

Why Obama is Declaring War on Syria

Veterans Today, 15 June 2013

(Beirut) – The short answer is Iran and Hezbollah according to Congressional sources. “The Syrian army’s victory at al-Qusayr was more than the administration could accept given that town’s strategic position in the region. Its capture by the Assad forces has essentially added Syria to Iran’s list of victories starting with Afghanistan, Lebanon, Iraq, as well as its growing influence in the Gulf.”

Other sources are asserting that Obama actually did not want to invoke direct military aid the rebels fighting to topple the Assad government or even to make use of American military power in Syria for several reasons. Among these are the lack of American public support for yet another American war in the Middle East, the fact that there appears to be no acceptable alternative to the Assad government on the horizon, the position of the US intelligence community and the State Department and Pentagon that intervention in Syria would potentially turn out very badly for the US and gut what’s left of its influence in the region. It short, that the US getting involved in Syria could turn out even worse than Iraq, by intensifying a regional sectarian war without any positive outcome in sight.

Continue reading “Franklin Lamb: Obama, Surrounded by Liars and Untried Youths, Declares War on Syria — USA Working for Iran (Again)”

2013/06/152013/06/15

NIGHTWATCH: Syria Update, Negative Ripple Effects for USA

05 Civil War, 08 Wild Cards

Syria: Update: According to several news services, the battle to retake Aleppo began today, 14 June. Syrian and Hizballah forces. News sources reported the fighting began east of central Aleppo in a neighborhood called Sakhour which rebel groups hold. Few other details are available other than statements from rebels and outside observers that the fight has begun.

Continue reading “NIGHTWATCH: Syria Update, Negative Ripple Effects for USA”

2013/06/142013/06/14

Mini-Me: Jordanian King Manipulates Obama & Light-Weight National Security Team — French & British Lie on Chemical Weapons — Susan Rice Ignored

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 06 Russia, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Proliferation, 08 Wild Cards, Corruption, Government, Idiocy, Ineptitude, IO Deeds of War, Military

Huh?

Behind Obama's About-Face on Syria

Jolted by Hezbollah's Entry Into Civil War and Chemical Weapons, Administration Chose to Arm Rebels

Adam Entous

Wall Street Journal, 14 June 2013

EXTRACT:

In one sobering moment in late April, Jordan's King Abdullah II presented President Barack Obama and aides with a bleak scenario for Syria—showing them a map of how the country could split into warring, sectarian fiefdoms, with a tract of desert dominated by al Qaeda and its allies, U.S. officials said.

. . . .

In meetings with officials from the White House and other departments, King Abdullah told policy makers that Syria would become similar to the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan, or FATA, where al Qaeda has long been based.

“Syria is going to become the new FATA, the breeding ground from where they launch attacks,” the king said, according to a person in the meetings.

Read full article.

Continue reading “Mini-Me: Jordanian King Manipulates Obama & Light-Weight National Security Team — French & British Lie on Chemical Weapons — Susan Rice Ignored”