Journal: Hubris Loses to Angst & Reality–Every Time

Collaboration Zones, Communities of Practice, Ethics, Key Players, Mobile, Policies, Real Time, Threats
Last Shake for Last Coin

British student held over alleged airline bomb attempt

Nigerian man reportedly linked to al-Qaida in custody after foiled terror attempt on transatlantic flight to Detroit

Police identified the suspect as Umar Farouk Abdul Mutallab, 23. It is understood that he is an engineering student at University College London.

One official said the man claimed to have been instructed by al-Qaida to detonate the plane over US soil.

Failed terror attack…Blizzard warning…Fuel spill in Alaskan waters

ROMULUS, Mich. (AP) — Law enforcement and counterterrorism officials say the components of a failed explosive were apparently mixed onboard an international flight bound for Detroit. Passengers subdued a Nigerian man who was apparently burned when the device fizzled, but didn't explode.

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. counterterrorism officials are trying to figure out if the failed bombing of an international flight preparing to land in Detroit reveals a serious new threat. Even though it burned but didn't explode, investigators wonder how the mixture allegedly used by a Nigerian man evaded detection

Phi Beta Iota: In the time immediately following 9/11 it was clearly established by multiple parties that our asymmetric opponents were spending $1 for every $500,000 we spent.  Today we speculate that the ratio is closer to $1 (them) to $5 million (us).  We lack a grasp of reality; we lack a strategy; we lack a force structure; and above all, we lack the moral high ground.  Imperial Hubris is what happens when government get “too big to fail” and then promptly collapse because they suffer from a culture that turns disaster into catastrophe.  Terrorism is the LEAST of our problems, but for the sake of avoiding argument we accept the United Nations High Level Panel's conclusion that terrorism is number nine out of ten high-level threats to humanity.  What we do every day to ourselves is easily a million times more threatening, more costly, and more immoral than anything a single terrorist or terrorist group–whatever their motivations–might do.  The BAD DECISIONS made by government are the real sucking chest wound for society, both in terms of perpetuating catastrophic industrial and weather changing practices, and in terms of failing to meet the fundamental needs of people who–if empowered with connectivity and education–would create infinite wealth in every clime and place.

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Search: map of iranian influence in africa

05 Iran, Communities of Practice, Cultural Intelligence

Phi Beta Iota: Extremely cool search!  Should be combined with a map of Chinese, Turkish, and Brazilian influence in Africa.  OSS.Net, Inc. drew on its European allies to provide the tribal maps for Afghanistan and Iraq to Special Forces prior to their going in, and we are still astonished at the complete lack of a serious geospatial mapping capability focused on tribes, influence, and so on.

Let's start with Iran itself.  Below is a map of its own divisions.

Iran's Ethnic Distribution

So when you talk about Iranian influence across Africa, you want to be very clear about both the ethnic roots of the Iranian influence element at point X, and the tribal-ethnic roots of the African element coming into contact with Iranian influence.

We are long over-due for anthropologically-correct maps of the various diasporas, with China, Iran, and Saudi Arabia being among the most important, the latter because of the extreme corruption of their leadership and the extreme virrulence of Wahabbism.

See the graphic on Africa (7) and also, for excellence of depictions, Atlases & State of the World (21).

Articles:

Iran's activity in East Africa

Iran's Activity In East Africa, The Gateway To The Middle East And The African Continent

Cliick on above for a fine report with good detail dated 7 August 2009.  The below images come from that report.

The Iranian regime's activities in African countries

Saudis act to counter Iran's influence in the Mideast – Africa & Middle East

The Iranians have been very active in Latin America during the past ten years, at the same time that the Chinese have been using Macao to launch very deliberate campaigns into all former Portuguese territories.

Journal: Life in the Cloud–Repeating Past Mistakes

Communities of Practice, Ethics, IO Secrets, Key Players, Mobile, Policies, Real Time, Threats
Full Story Online

January/February 2010

Security in the Ether

Information technology's next grand challenge will be to secure the cloud–and prove we can trust it.

By David Talbot

Phi Beta Iota: The story is so good we will not extract from it.  It must be read in its entirety.  Government is failing to do its job, leaving a “wild west” environment alive and corruptible in the cloud.  Standards are beginning to emerge but security is not a priority and the end-user as the ultimate source of the security is not even being considered (over ten years ago Eric Hughes conceptualized anonymous banking and end-user controlled encryption of all data).  Eventually, after great expesne and great loss of data, government and industry may realize that the ultimate security is that which originates with the individual end-user, not a central service that can be hacked by disgruntled insiders or that can make a mistake that instantly explodes tens of millions of clients.  Below is the original Mich Kabay slide, still relevant.

Mich Kabay's Threat Slide Link Leads to NSA Las Vegas Briefing

Journal: US Intervention Outcomes for Women Et Al

Collaboration Zones, Communities of Practice, Key Players, Threats
Chuck Spinney

One of the main arguments made by self-proclaimed “liberal humanitarian interventionists” in support of President Obama's escalation of the Afghan War is that a return of the Taliban to power will condemn women to conditions approaching slavery.  It is true that women's rights in Afghanistan are almost medieval in character, but the central question of humanitarian intervention is fundamentally one of whether the US escalation will improve things or make matters worse.

The United States has a sorry track record in this regard, and we bear a heavy moral burden for the current state of affairs, including the dismal state of woman's rights.

Chuck Spinney.

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The U.S. intervention has never been and won't become a force for humanitarianism.

ANN FRIEDMAN | December 22, 2009

American Prospect

In the spring of 2008 I wrote a column, “Listening to Iraq,” in which I lamented the lack of access that most Americans had to the voices and opinions of the people most affected by the ongoing war. This made it difficult, I wrote, “for even the best-intentioned anti-war American to see Iraqis as partners, rather than as a political project.”

I was reminded of that column after Obama's speech announcing his Afghanistan strategy, In it, he declared, “For the Afghan people, a return to Taliban rule would condemn their country to brutal governance, international isolation, a paralyzed economy, and the denial of basic human rights to the Afghan people — especially women and girls.” But he made very clear that he does not see our involvement in Afghanistan as a humanitarian mission. As the American left debates, I'm struck by a desire to know what Afghan women, who have been living under the U.S. occupation for roughly eight years now, think would be best for their country.

The Afghan politician and activist Malalai Joya has warned that “Obama's military buildup will only bring more suffering and death to innocent civilians.” Another woman, who goes by the pseudonym Zoya, has appeared in various U.S. media calling for “withdrawal of the troops immediately.” She is a member of the Revolutionary Association of the Women of Afghanistan, a Kabul-based political group that has fought for human rights and social justice since 1977. And Sakena Yacoobi, who founded a network of underground schools for Afghan women and girls, says “most foreign troops are not primarily focused on protecting women and children. Their focus is on beating the enemy, which is very different, and ordinary citizens become collateral damage in the process.” At least Obama and Yacoobi are in agreement: This mission is not about human rights and democracy. It's about defeating an enemy.

Below the Fold:  Balance of Spinney Commentary and Links to Relevant Book Reviews

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Journal: Anthropology 101–Not Being Listened To

Collaboration Zones, Communities of Practice, Ethics, Key Players, Policies, Threats
Full Story Online
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To Beat Al Qaeda, Look to the East

By SCOTT ATRAN   December 13, 2009

Scott Atran, an anthropologist at the National Center for Scientific Research in Paris, John Jay College and the University of Michigan, is the author of the forthcoming ‘Listen to the Devil.'

Confidence is important, but we also have to recognize that the decision to commit 30,000 more troops to a counterinsurgency effort against a good segment of the Afghan population, with the focus on converting a deeply unpopular and corrupt regime into a unified, centralized state for the first time in that country's history, is far from a slam dunk. In the worst case, the surge may push General McChrystal's ”core goal of defeating Al Qaeda” further away.

What binds these groups together? First is friendship forged through fighting: the Indonesian volunteers who fought the Soviet Union in Afghanistan styled themselves the Afghan Alumni, and many kept in contact when they returned home after the war. The second is school ties and discipleship: many leading operatives in Southeast Asia come from a handful of religious schools affiliated with Jemaah Islamiyah. Out of some 30,000 religious schools in Indonesia, only about 50 have a deadly legacy of producing violent extremists. Third is family ties; as anyone who has watched the opening scene from ”The Godfather” knows, weddings can be terrific opportunities for networking and plotting.

Understanding these three aspects of terrorist networking has given law enforcement a leg up on the jihadists.

. . . . . . .

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Journal: Tora Bora Revisited by Peter Bergen

08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism, Collective Intelligence

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The Battle for Tora Bora

How Osama bin Laden slipped from our grasp: The definitive account.

PeterBergen

I am convinced that Tora Bora constitutes one of the greatest military blunders in recent U.S. history. It is worth revisiting now not just in the interest of historical accuracy, but also because the story contains valuable lessons as we renew our push against Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
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Journal: Al Qaeda Has a Regional Strategy, Does US?

08 Wild Cards, Civil Society, Military, Peace Intelligence

Berto Jongman Recommends...

BOSTON REVIEW

JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2010

‘The real danger is that al Qaeda and the Neo-Taliban will drag the United States into regional war’

Syed Saleem Shahzad

The Obama administration’s troop surge fails to address the real threat in Afghanistan: the insurgents’ efforts to develop a regional strategy in South Asia. Washington’s focus—members of al Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan and the traditional Afghan Taliban—misses the mark. Nir Rosen does, too, when he asks whether “a few hundred angry, unsophisticated Muslim extremists really pose such grave dangers to a vigilant superpower, now alert to potential threats.”

The November 2008 Mumbai attacks and the recent FBI arrests in Chicago for conspiracy to launch attacks in New Delhi suggest that containing the threat from Afghanistan is extremely complicated, and solutions must go beyond troop surges in Afghanistan, training Afghan police and soldiers, or even political dialogue with Taliban commanders inside the country. Intelligence agencies are now realizing that both the Mumbai events and the Delhi plans—plotted directly by al Qaeda affiliated groups, which I call the Neo-Taliban—were directly linked to Afghanistan, but also incorporated wider aims. The goal was to expand the theater of war to India so that Washington would lose track of its objectives and get caught in a quagmire.