To date we have identified over 80 and mapped 50 such Black Spots and begun to assess the types of interactions going on in these areas as well as the various kinds of insecurity that they are exporting and the directions in which it is or may be going. We continually scan the globe for other areas where conditions seem right for the presence of a Black Spot. Using published materials, news-scanning software, formal and informal interviews, and, where feasible, visits to the areas, we piece together a picture of the Global Black Spots, their nature, and their interactions with the outside world.
Journal: Chuck Spinney Sends–the Chimera of Victory in Iraq
05 Civil War, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Military, StrategyA good example of why learning from the past can be useful.
October 31, 2009
OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR
Chimera of Victory
By GIAN P. GENTILE
If history is a guide, then the recent suicide bombings in Baghdad show that the insurgency in Iraq is far from over. Contrary to much of what is written and said, victory is not near and the notion that the “surge” of troops was some great, decisive military action that set the stage for political reconciliation is a chimera.
It was a chimera for the French in Algeria that their bloody counterinsurgency there defeated Algerian nationalists. After the war, which lasted from 1956 to 1961, a myth started to build in the French Army and then found its way into American Army thinking, where it lives on today, that the French military operations defeated the insurgents.
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Journal: True Cost of Afghanistan
03 Economy, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Civil Society, Ethics, Government, Military, Peace Intelligence, Threats, True Cost
Paul Kawika Martin, Political and Policy Director for Peace Action, said:
I think the question should be: How much U.S. credit should we use on the war in Afghanistan? As it stands, the over $230 Billion we have already spent has mostly been borrowed money adding to the U.S. deficit. Of course, just like buying a car or home, sometimes it's good to do things on credit. But this isn't the true cost. As Noble Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz and Harvard professor Linda Bilmes points out, that figure fails to include interest on debt, veterans benefits and other costs to society. They estimate the costs for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan could top a staggering $5 trillion to $7 trillion.
Phi Beta Iota: Other “pundits” can be read within the full story. The cost is far more than the “tangible debt.” It includes the hollowing out of America–the loss of integrity, the failure of paradigms, the cheating culture, and on and on and on. We have in essence sacrified the Republic in the name of partisan politics and corporate greed, enabled by civitas minimus. America is less safe and less prosperous today than it was on 9/12.
Search: Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield
Analysis, Budgets & Funding, Collaboration Zones, Communities of Practice, Ethics, History, InfoOps (IO), Key Players, Methods & Process, Policies, Policy, Reform, Searches, Strategy, ThreatsIf one takes the “battlefield” to include all challenges, not just the challenge of a battle in a singular time and place, then this search is the mother of all searches.
We like to use the analogy of sailboat racing, something we learned from a video, DVD: THE ART OF RACING SAILING. This DVD begins with an inspection of the hull of the sailboat out of the water and the point is that the race is often won or lost BEFORE THE RACE EVEN BEGINS. If you have failed to assure a correct hull; if you have failed to train, equip, and organize the right forces for the right mission, if you have failed to understand the historical, cultural, and geographical reality you are entering into a context with; then no amount of excellence on the field itself will prevail.
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Officers’ Call–Conversation About Iraq I
05 Civil War, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Ethics, Memoranda, Military, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence, StrategyOne of the great things about being the touchstone for public intelligence is the contacts that are made by students, officers and enlisted personnel serving in the field, and so many others.
While we were in Denmark, an officer now serving in Iraq sent us some questions that we answered to the best of our ability. The questions alone are listed here. For the answers, click on the cover.
1. We never should have invaded Iraq. I have a less developed opinion on Afghanistan, but if I had to say one way or another, that was probably a mistake as well.
Do these mistakes fall solely on the Bush administration?
Was the administrating that incompetent or did they have an immoral and selfish reason such as fleecing the U.S.?
Was it shortsighted political gain objectives with an underestimation of the downside?
We will have at least double the amount of dead service members before these conflicts are over as were killed during the 9/11 attacks. I read somewhere that we have 75,000 amputees due to the two conflicts not to mention the amount of PTSD. Who has the blood on their hands? Certainly nobody is willing to admit mistakes.
I don't understand how Cheney can even think about spouting off after how the conflicts have gone. Where is the cost vs gain analysis?
2. Once we did invade, we didn't have a solid plan and we didn't bring nearly enough troops if we planned on staying. Was this mainly Rumsfeld's fault?
Journal: Abnormal Abductive Advances
Collaboration Zones, Communities of Practice, Ethics, Key Players, Policies, Threats, True Cost
‘Impossible’ Device Could Propel Flying Cars, Stealth Missiles
David Hambling October 29, 2009
The Emdrive is an electromagnetic drive that would generate thrust from a closed system — “impossible” say some experts.
To critics, it’s flat-out junk science, not even worth thinking about. But its inventor, Roger Shawyer, has doggedly continued his work. As Danger Room reported last year, Chinese scientists claimed to validate his math and were building their own version.
Shawyer gave a presentation earlier this week on the Emdrive’s progress at the CEAS 2009 European Air & Space Conference. It answered few questions, but hinted at how the Emdrive might transform spaceflight — and warfare. If the technology works, that is.
Journal: US Lacks Basic Intelligence at the Top
Collaboration Zones, Communities of Practice, Ethics, Key Players, Policies, Strategy, Threats
New Study Reveals Connection Between Enforcing Immigration Laws and National Security
Friday, October 30, 2009
By Penny Starr, Senior Staff Writer
A new study by the conservative think tank Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) reveals the connection between enforcing immigration laws and national security – sometimes in chilling detail.
Phi Beta Iota: It's all connected. Until the US Government understands the two graphics below (each leads to a separate briefing any adult should be able to comprehend), the Republic will continue its nose dive into the cluster of Third World nations we have abused and now will join for lack of integrity and intelligence among our leaders, military as well as civilian.
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