40 Years of Doing Intelligence Analysis-Lessons

Analysis, Articles & Chapters, Intelligence (government), Methods & Process

Martin Petersen  Studies in Intelligence Vol 55 No 1

An advantage of getting older is increased perspective. I have been doing, thinking and writing about intelligence and intelligence analysis for almost 40 years now. The business we are in has changed a great deal in that time, but more in its form than in its fundamentals.  I want to focus on three broad topics: understanding the customer, the importance of a service mentality, and the six things I learned in doing and studying intelligence analysis during my career in the DI. While these experiences are drawn from work in the CIA, I believe the principles apply across the Intelligence Community (IC).

Understanding the Consumer: Five Fundamental Truths

The Importance of a Service Mentality

The Six Things I Learned

Read the complete article….

Phi Beta Iota: This is a pleasure to read, and useful.

See Also:

Jack Davis on Analysis (All Phi Beta Iota Posts)

New Rules for the New Craft of Intelligence

Event: 11-12 Dec 09 Berkeley Springs WV Change Workshop with Don Beck and John Petersen

Uncategorized
Workshop Details
Workshop Details

Explore the landscape of large-scale change and map the pathways to a future new world in an intense, hands-on, unprecedented workshop with Don Beck and John Petersen.

Humanity is seeing the growing stress fractures of a global system undergoing extraordinary, historic change. Social systems are surfacing extreme responses to unprecedented threats to the status quo. Titanic shifts in the global financial, climate and energy systems all seem to be conspiring to undermine the effectiveness of almost every historical – and familiar – approach to living on this planet.

This workshop is an unequalled opportunity to learn about the options, potentials, processes, and possibilities related to large scale change.

A Few Links and Reviews (including DNI’s Global Trends 2025):

Continue reading “Event: 11-12 Dec 09 Berkeley Springs WV Change Workshop with Don Beck and John Petersen”

Review: A Vision for 2012: Planning for Extraordinary Change

3 Star, Future
Amazon Page
Amazon Page
3.0 out of 5 stars Annoying
September 4, 2009
John L. Petersen

John Petersen’s earlier work was vastly more interesting and more structured than this little 4.5 inch by 7 inch 100 page double-spaced blowing in the ears of Gary Hart and Leon Fuerth, among others. See my reviews of his earlier work:
Out of the blue: Wild cards and other big future surprises : how to anticipate and respond to profound change
The Road to 2015: Profiles of the Future

This book lacks a strategic analytic model and fluffs around the edges of important literatures without ever striking the right note.

The author is a dedicated, intelligent practitioner, but he is neither a scholar nor an analyst in the classic sense of the word–I found this book, in the larger context in which I read and think, annoying. A form of classic comic book for busy people in Washington who will nod and confirm the author’s sagacity without ever recognizing that there is really nothing here.

There is not a word in this book about corruption, integrity, information asymmetries, data pathologies, or the out and out rape of America by the two political parties.

The author is flat out wrong when he states on page 52 that “Humans don’t deal well with discontinuites and rapid change.” That alone dropped this book to three stars, and the rest of the fluffy-face stuff kept it there, including the intelligent but recycled and truncated material from earlier books.

Continue reading “Review: A Vision for 2012: Planning for Extraordinary Change”

Review: Out of the blue–Wild cards and other big future surprises–how to anticipate and respond to profound change

5 Star, Decision-Making & Decision-Support, Future
Out of the Blue
Amazon Page

5.0 out of 5 stars Compelling, Sensible, Easily Understandable

September 1, 2007

John L Petersen

I read and started to use this book well before I started doing Amazon reviews, and was reminded of this today when I started updating my brainstorming briefing.

I know John personally and consider one of the most balanced observers of the future, and especially gifted at casting a wide net to find weak signals, and then using analysis to make sense of disparate noises.

I strongly recommend this book and his more recent updated edition, Out of the Blue: How to Anticipate Big Future Surprises

Vote on Review
Vote on Review

Whole Earth Review Archives on Public Intelligence (Historical)

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1992

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Whole Earth R Brand Army Green

1992

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Whole Earth R Kapor et al We Need a National Public Network

1992

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Whole Earth R Kleiner The Co-Evolution of Governance

1992

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Whole Earth R Petersen Will the Military Miss the Market

1992

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Whole Earth R Staple & Dixon Telegeography: Mapping the New World Order

1992

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Whole Earth R Steele E3i: Ethics, Ecology, Evolution, and Intelligence

1992

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Whole Earth R Tibbs Industrial Ecology: An Environmental Agenda for Industry

1991

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Whole Earth R Brilliant Computer Conferencing: The Global Connection

1991

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Whole Earth R Clay Genes, Genius, and Genocide

1991

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Whole Earth R Elgin Conscious Democracy Through Electronic Town Meetings

1991

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Whole Earth R Garcia Assessing the Impacts of Technology

1991

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Whole Earth R Godwin The Electronic Frontier Foundation and Virtual Communities

1991

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Whole Earth R Karraker Highways of the Mind

1991

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Whole Earth R Lovins & Lovins Winning the Peace

1991

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Whole Earth R Marx Privacy & Technology

1991

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Whole Earth R Meeks The Global Commons

1991

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Whole Earth R Rheingold Electronic Democracy: The Great Equalizer

1991

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Whole Earth R Schuman Reclaiming our Technological Future

1991

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Whole Earth R Warren & Rheingold Access to Political Tools: Effective Citizen Action

1991

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Whole Earth R White Earthtrust: Electronic Mail and Ecological Activism

1991

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Whole Earth R Whitney-Smith Information Doesn’t Want

1991

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Whole Earth R Wittig Electronic City Hall

1990

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Whole Earth R Barlow Crime and Puzzlement: The Advance of the Law on the Electronic Frontier

1990

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Whole Earth R Brand Outlaws, Musicians, Lovers, and Spies: The Future of Control

1990

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Whole Earth R Dodge Life Work

1990

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Whole Earth R Ishii Cross-Cultural Communications & Computer-Supported Cooperative Work

1990

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Whole Earth R Jordon III Restoration: Shaping the Land, Transforming the Spirit

1990

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Whole Earth R Kumon Toward Co-Emulation: Japan and the United States in the Information Age

1990

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Whole Earth R Monschke How to Heal the Land

1990

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Whole Earth R Shapard Observations on Cross-Cultural Electronic Networking

1990

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Whole Earth R Vidal Founding Father Knows Best

1989

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Whole Earth R Berman The Gesture of Balance

1989

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Whole Earth R Garfinkle Social Security Numbers: And Other Telling Information

1989

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Whole Earth R Haight Living in the Office

1989

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Whole Earth R Horvitz The USENET Underground

1989

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Whole Earth R Jaffe Hello, Central: Phone Conferencing Tips

1989

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Whole Earth R Johnson` The Portable Office

1989

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Whole Earth R Rheingold Ethnobotany: The Search for Vanishing Knowledge

1988

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1988

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Whole Earth R Baker, W. Gossip

1988

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Whole Earth R Brand The Information Wants to Be Free Strategy

1988

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Whole Earth R Coate Tales from Two Communities: The Well and the Farm

1988

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1988

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1988

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1988

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Whole Earth R Hawkins Computer Parasites & Remedies–A Catalog of First Sightings

1988

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1988

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1988

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1988

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Whole Earth R Nelson Gossip

1988

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Whole Earth R Newroe Distance Learning

1988

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Whole Earth R Pert The Material Basis of Emotions with Inset, Mind as Information

1988

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Whole Earth R Rappaport Gossip

1988

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Whole Earth R Thurow & Walsh Getting Over the Information Economy

1987

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Whole Earth R Donaldson An Incomplete History of Microcomputing

1987

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Whole Earth R Henson MEMETICS: The Science of Information Viruses

1987

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Whole Earth R Horvitz An Intelligent Guide to Intelligence

1987

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Whole Earth R Krause Bio-Acoustics: Habitat Ambience & Ecological Balance

1987

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Whole Earth R Roberts Electronic Cottage on Wheels

1986

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Whole Earth R Fend & Gunther What Have You Got to Hide: Iraq Iran Basra Abadan

1986

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1986

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Whole Earth R Sanders Etiquette for the Age of Transparency

1986

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Whole Earth R Scxhwartz & Brand The World Information Economy

1986

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Whole Earth R Thompson A Gaian Politics

1985

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Whole Earth R Brand, Kelly, Kinney Digital Retouching: The End of Photography as Evidence of Anything

1985

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Whole Earth R Hunter Public Image

1985

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Whole Earth R Kleiner The Health Hazards of Computers: A Guide to Worrying Intelligently

1985

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Whole Earth R Mander Six Grave Doubts About Computers

1983

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Whole Earth R Illich Silence is a Commons: Computers Are Doing to Communication What …

1982

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Whole Earth R Brand Uncommon Courtesy: A School of Compassionate Skills

1982

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Whole Earth R Kayes Force Without Power: A Doctrine of Unarmed Military Service

1982

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Whole Earth R Meadows Whole Earth Models & Systems