40 Years of Doing Intelligence Analysis-Lessons

Analysis, Articles & Chapters, Intelligence (government), Methods & Process

Martin Petersen  Studies in Intelligence Vol 55 No 1

An advantage of getting older is increased perspective. I have been doing, thinking and writing about intelligence and intelligence analysis for almost 40 years now. The business we are in has changed a great deal in that time, but more in its form than in its fundamentals.  I want to focus on three broad topics: understanding the customer, the importance of a service mentality, and the six things I learned in doing and studying intelligence analysis during my career in the DI. While these experiences are drawn from work in the CIA, I believe the principles apply across the Intelligence Community (IC).

Understanding the Consumer: Five Fundamental Truths

The Importance of a Service Mentality

The Six Things I Learned

Read the complete article….

Phi Beta Iota: This is a pleasure to read, and useful.

See Also:

Jack Davis on Analysis (All Phi Beta Iota Posts)

New Rules for the New Craft of Intelligence

Event: 11-12 Dec 09 Berkeley Springs WV Change Workshop with Don Beck and John Petersen

Uncategorized
Workshop Details
Workshop Details

Explore the landscape of large-scale change and map the pathways to a future new world in an intense, hands-on, unprecedented workshop with Don Beck and John Petersen.

Humanity is seeing the growing stress fractures of a global system undergoing extraordinary, historic change. Social systems are surfacing extreme responses to unprecedented threats to the status quo. Titanic shifts in the global financial, climate and energy systems all seem to be conspiring to undermine the effectiveness of almost every historical – and familiar – approach to living on this planet.

This workshop is an unequalled opportunity to learn about the options, potentials, processes, and possibilities related to large scale change.

A Few Links and Reviews (including DNI’s Global Trends 2025):

Continue reading “Event: 11-12 Dec 09 Berkeley Springs WV Change Workshop with Don Beck and John Petersen”

Review: A Vision for 2012: Planning for Extraordinary Change

3 Star, Future
Amazon Page
Amazon Page
3.0 out of 5 stars Annoying
September 4, 2009
John L. Petersen

John Petersen’s earlier work was vastly more interesting and more structured than this little 4.5 inch by 7 inch 100 page double-spaced blowing in the ears of Gary Hart and Leon Fuerth, among others. See my reviews of his earlier work:
Out of the blue: Wild cards and other big future surprises : how to anticipate and respond to profound change
The Road to 2015: Profiles of the Future

This book lacks a strategic analytic model and fluffs around the edges of important literatures without ever striking the right note.

The author is a dedicated, intelligent practitioner, but he is neither a scholar nor an analyst in the classic sense of the word–I found this book, in the larger context in which I read and think, annoying. A form of classic comic book for busy people in Washington who will nod and confirm the author’s sagacity without ever recognizing that there is really nothing here.

There is not a word in this book about corruption, integrity, information asymmetries, data pathologies, or the out and out rape of America by the two political parties.

The author is flat out wrong when he states on page 52 that “Humans don’t deal well with discontinuites and rapid change.” That alone dropped this book to three stars, and the rest of the fluffy-face stuff kept it there, including the intelligent but recycled and truncated material from earlier books.

Continue reading “Review: A Vision for 2012: Planning for Extraordinary Change”

Review: Out of the blue–Wild cards and other big future surprises–how to anticipate and respond to profound change

5 Star, Decision-Making & Decision-Support, Future
Out of the Blue
Amazon Page

5.0 out of 5 stars Compelling, Sensible, Easily Understandable

September 1, 2007

John L Petersen

I read and started to use this book well before I started doing Amazon reviews, and was reminded of this today when I started updating my brainstorming briefing.

I know John personally and consider one of the most balanced observers of the future, and especially gifted at casting a wide net to find weak signals, and then using analysis to make sense of disparate noises.

I strongly recommend this book and his more recent updated edition, Out of the Blue: How to Anticipate Big Future Surprises

Vote on Review
Vote on Review

Whole Earth Review Archives on Public Intelligence (Historical)

Whole Earth Review

1992

US

Whole Earth RBrandArmy Green

1992

US

Whole Earth RKapor et alWe Need a National Public Network

1992

US

Whole Earth RKleinerThe Co-Evolution of Governance

1992

US

Whole Earth RPetersenWill the Military Miss the Market

1992

US

Whole Earth RStaple & DixonTelegeography: Mapping the New World Order

1992

US

Whole Earth RSteeleE3i: Ethics, Ecology, Evolution, and Intelligence

1992

US

Whole Earth RTibbsIndustrial Ecology: An Environmental Agenda for Industry

1991

US

Whole Earth RBrilliantComputer Conferencing: The Global Connection

1991

US

Whole Earth RClayGenes, Genius, and Genocide

1991

US

Whole Earth RElginConscious Democracy Through Electronic Town Meetings

1991

US

Whole Earth RGarciaAssessing the Impacts of Technology

1991

US

Whole Earth RGodwinThe Electronic Frontier Foundation and Virtual Communities

1991

US

Whole Earth RKarrakerHighways of the Mind

1991

US

Whole Earth RLovins & LovinsWinning the Peace

1991

US

Whole Earth RMarxPrivacy & Technology

1991

US

Whole Earth RMeeksThe Global Commons

1991

US

Whole Earth RRheingoldElectronic Democracy: The Great Equalizer

1991

US

Whole Earth RSchumanReclaiming our Technological Future

1991

US

Whole Earth RWarren & RheingoldAccess to Political Tools: Effective Citizen Action

1991

US

Whole Earth RWhiteEarthtrust: Electronic Mail and Ecological Activism

1991

US

Whole Earth RWhitney-SmithInformation Doesn’t Want

1991

US

Whole Earth RWittigElectronic City Hall

1990

US

Whole Earth RBarlowCrime and Puzzlement: The Advance of the Law on the Electronic Frontier

1990

US

Whole Earth RBrandOutlaws, Musicians, Lovers, and Spies: The Future of Control

1990

US

Whole Earth RDodgeLife Work

1990

JP

Whole Earth RIshiiCross-Cultural Communications & Computer-Supported Cooperative Work

1990

US

Whole Earth RJordon IIIRestoration: Shaping the Land, Transforming the Spirit

1990

JP

Whole Earth RKumonToward Co-Emulation: Japan and the United States in the Information Age

1990

US

Whole Earth RMonschkeHow to Heal the Land

1990

US

Whole Earth RShapardObservations on Cross-Cultural Electronic Networking

1990

US

Whole Earth RVidalFounding Father Knows Best

1989

US

Whole Earth RBermanThe Gesture of Balance

1989

US

Whole Earth RGarfinkleSocial Security Numbers: And Other Telling Information

1989

US

Whole Earth RHaightLiving in the Office

1989

US

Whole Earth RHorvitzThe USENET Underground

1989

US

Whole Earth RJaffeHello, Central: Phone Conferencing Tips

1989

US

Whole Earth RJohnson`The Portable Office

1989

US

Whole Earth RRheingoldEthnobotany: The Search for Vanishing Knowledge

1988

US

Whole Earth RBaker, S.Gossip

1988

US

Whole Earth RBaker, W.Gossip

1988

US

Whole Earth RBrandThe Information Wants to Be Free Strategy

1988

US

Whole Earth RCoateTales from Two Communities: The Well and the Farm

1988

US

Whole Earth RFergusonGossip

1988

US

Whole Earth RFieldsGossip

1988

US

Whole Earth RHardinGossip

1988

US

Whole Earth RHawkinsComputer Parasites & Remedies–A Catalog of First Sightings

1988

US

Whole Earth RKeenGossip

1988

US

Whole Earth RKleinerGossip

1988

US

Whole Earth RLearyGossip

1988

US

Whole Earth RNelsonGossip

1988

US

Whole Earth RNewroeDistance Learning

1988

US

Whole Earth RPertThe Material Basis of Emotions with Inset, Mind as Information

1988

US

Whole Earth RRappaportGossip

1988

US

Whole Earth RThurow & WalshGetting Over the Information Economy

1987

US

Whole Earth RDonaldsonAn Incomplete History of Microcomputing

1987

US

Whole Earth RHensonMEMETICS: The Science of Information Viruses

1987

US

Whole Earth RHorvitzAn Intelligent Guide to Intelligence

1987

US

Whole Earth RKrauseBio-Acoustics: Habitat Ambience & Ecological Balance

1987

US

Whole Earth RRobertsElectronic Cottage on Wheels

1986

US

Whole Earth RFend & GuntherWhat Have You Got to Hide: Iraq Iran Basra Abadan

1986

US

Whole Earth RMinskySociety of Mind

1986

US

Whole Earth RSandersEtiquette for the Age of Transparency

1986

US

Whole Earth RScxhwartz & BrandThe World Information Economy

1986

US

Whole Earth RThompsonA Gaian Politics

1985

US

Whole Earth RBrand, Kelly, KinneyDigital Retouching: The End of Photography as Evidence of Anything

1985

US

Whole Earth RHunterPublic Image

1985

US

Whole Earth RKleinerThe Health Hazards of Computers: A Guide to Worrying Intelligently

1985

US

Whole Earth RManderSix Grave Doubts About Computers

1983

US

Whole Earth RIllichSilence is a Commons: Computers Are Doing to Communication What …

1982

US

Whole Earth RBrandUncommon Courtesy: A School of Compassionate Skills

1982

US

Whole Earth RKayesForce Without Power: A Doctrine of Unarmed Military Service

1982

US

Whole Earth RMeadowsWhole Earth Models & Systems

Policy Archives on Public Intelligence (1992-2006)

Policy

2006

US

PolicyDoDQDR Shift in Focus 18 Years After Gray and Steele Recommended Same

2006

US

PolicyMarkowitzDefense Science Board Report on Transitions (NGO, OSINT)

2006

US

PolicyPetersCounterrevolution in Military Affairs

2006

US

PolicySteeleTerms of Reference for Intelligence Reform 1.1

2006

US

PolicySteeleIn Search of a Leader (Four Essential Reforms)

2006

US

PolicySteeleElectoral Refrom as Precursor to Intelligence Reform

2006

US

PolicyTsuruokaManaging for the Future: Interview with Alvin Toffler

2005

US

PolicyAndreggEthics and the IC: Breaking the Laws of God and Man

2005

UK

PolicyBASICThink Tank Report on US Intelligence Incompetence

2005

EU

PolicyEUEuropean Union Proposed Multi-National Intelligence Service

2005

US

PolicyGodsonCulture of Lawfullness

2005

US

PolicySteeleON INTELLIGENCE: Overview in Aftermath of 9-11

2005

US

PolicySteeleOp-Ed on Condi Rice’s Active Deception

2005

US

PolicySteeleCease and desist letter on Naquin

2005

US

PolicyTamaPrinceton Review on Intelligence Reform

2004

US

PolicyAlexanderArmy G-2 Accepts OSINT as Separate Discipline

2004

US

PolicyAndreggInsanity of Planned Intelligence “Reforms”

2004

AU

PolicyAnon & SteeleUpdate on OSINT in Australia

2004

FR

PolicyClercCognitive Knowledge for Nations

2004

US

PolicyCordesmanQuestions & Answers on Intelligence Reform

2004

US

PolicyCordesman & SteeleQuestions & Answers on Intelligence Reform

2004

US

PolicySimmonsCongressman Simmons Letter to General Schoomaker on OSINT

2004

US

PolicySteeleDoD OSINT Program: One Man’s View of What Is Needed

2004

US

PolicySteeleTranscript of Steele at Secretary of State’s Open Forum 24 March 2004

2004

NL

PolicyTongeren (van)Need for Global Alliance for Human Security (Complete)

2004

NL

PolicyTongeren (van)Need for Global Alliance for Human Security (Overview)

2003

US

PolicyCzechSteady State Revolution and National Security

2003

CA

PolicyFyffeIntelligence Sharing and OSINT

2003

CA

PolicyFyffeIntelligence Sharing and OSINT (Summary)

2003

UN

PolicyLewisCreating the Global Brain

2003

US

PolicyMarkowitzOSINT in Support of All Source

2003

US

PolicyMarkowitzOpen Source Intelligence Investment Strategy

2003

US

PolicySteeleOpen Letter to Ambassadors Accredited to the USA

2003

BE

PolicyTruyensIntelligent vs. Intelligence: That Is The Question

2002

Italy

PolicyPoliti11th of September and the Future of European Intelligence

2001

US

PolicyHeibelIntelligence Training: What Is It?  Who Needs It?

2001

US

PolicyHeibelValue of Intelligence & Intelligence Training to Any Organization

2001

US

PolicyOakleyUse of Civilian & Military Power for Engagement & Intervention

2000

US

PolicyBerkowitzAn Alternative View of the Future of Intellligence

2000

RU

PolicyBudzkoRussian View of Electronic Open Sources and How to Exploit Them

2000

US

PolicyErmarthOSINT: A Fresh Look at the Past and the Future

2000

IT

PolicyPolitiThe Birth of OSINT in Italy

1999

US

PolicyAllen (ADCI/C)OSINT as a Foundation for All-Source Collection Management

1999

UK

PolicyRolingtonChanging Messages in Western Knowledge Over 400 Years (Slides)

1999

UK

PolicyRolingtonChanging Messages in Western Knowledge Over 400 Years (Text)

1999

UK

PolicySteeleSnakes in the Grass: Open Source Doctrine

1998

US

PolicyDonahueBalancing Spending Among Spies, Satellites, and Schoolboys

1997

FR

PolicyBotbolThe OSINT Revolution: Early Failures and Future Prospects

1997

US

PolicyFelsherViability & Survivability of US Remote Sensing as Function of Policy

1997

US

PolicySteeleIntelligence in the Balance: Opening Remarks at OSS ‘97

1997

US

PolicySuttonGlobal Coverage ($1.5B/Year Needed for Lower Tier OSINT)

1997

US

PolicyTsuruokaAsian Perceptions of What Is and Is Not Legal in Economic Intelligence

1997

UK

PolicyTyrrellProposals to Develop a NATO/PfP OSINT Capability

1996

FR

PolicyClercEconomic and Financial Intelligence: The French Model

1996

US

PolicyKahinWhat Is Intellectual Property?

1996

US

PolicySteeleCreating a Smart Nation (Govt Info Q and also CYBERWAR Chapter)

1996

US

PolicySteeleInfoPeace: OSINT as a Policy Option & Operational Alternative

1996

US

PolicySteeleOpen Sources and the Virtual Intelligence Community

1996

US

PolicySteeleProtecting the Civilian Infrastructure as an Aspect of Information Warfare

1996

US

PolicyZuckermanThe Central Role of Open Source Economic Intelligence

1995

US

PolicyPrusakSeven Myths of the Information Age

1995

US

PolicySteeleConference Executive Summary C/HPSCI and former DCI Colby

1995

US

PolicySteeleCreating a Smart Nation: Strategy, Policy, Intelligence, & Information

1995

US

PolicySteeleSMART NATIONS: NI Strategies and Virtual Intelligence Communities

1994

US

PolicyOgdin & GiserCyber-Glut, and What To Do About It

1994

FR

PolicySchmidtOpen Source Solutions 1994: The State of Intelligence

1994

US

PolicySchwartauLetter on NII Security

1994

US

PolicySchwartau et alCross-Walk of 3 Experts’ Spending $1 Billion per Year for NII Security

1994

US

PolicySteeleCommunications, Content, Coordination, and C4 Security: Talking Points

1994

US

PolicySteeleCorrespondence to Mr. Marty Harris, NII Commission

1994

US

PolicySteeleDATA MINING: Don’t Buy or Build Your Shovel Until You Know What…

1994

US

PolicySteeleExpansion of Questions Posed by Senator John Warner to Aspin-Brown

1994

US

PolicySteeleLetter to the Open Source Lunch Club on PFIAB Being Useless

1994

US

PolicySteeleNational and Corporate Security in the Age of Information

1994

US

PolicySteelePrivate Enterprise Intelligence: Its Potential Contribution to Nat’l Sec.

1993

FR

PolicyBeaumardFrance: Think-tank to Anticipate & Regulate Economic Intelligence Issues

1993

FR

PolicyBeaumardLearned Nations: Competitive Advantages Via Knowledge Strategies

1993

US

PolicyBrennerLaw and Policy of Telecommunications and Computer Database Networks

1993

US

PolicyCastagnaReview of Reich, The Work of Nations

1993

AU

PolicyChantlerNeed for Australia to Develop a Strategic Policy on OSI

1993

US

PolicyCislerCommunity Computer Networks

1993

US

PolicyCivilleThe Spirit of Access: Equity, NREN, and the NII

1993

US

PolicyFedanzoA Genetic View of National Intelligence

1993

US

PolicyHaverIntelligence Aim Veers to Amassing Overt Information

1993

JP

PolicyKumonJapan and the United States in the Information Age

1993

SE

PolicyLeijonhelmEconomic Intelligence Cooperation Between Government Industry

1993

US

PolicyLoveComments on the Clinton Administration’s ‘Vision’ Statement for the NII

1993

US

PolicyPetersenA New Twenty-First Century Role for the Intelligence Community

1993

GE

PolicySchmidtHistory of Failure, Future of Opportunity: Reinventions and Deja Vu

1993

US

PolicySteeleA Critical Evaluation of U.S. National Security Capabilities

1993

US

PolicySteeleACCESS: Theory and Practice of Intelligence in the Age of Information

1993

US

PolicySteeleExecutive Order 12356, ‘National Security Information’

1993

US

PolicySteeleReinventing Intelligence in the Age of Information (TP for DCI)

1993

US

PolicySteeleReinventing Intelligence: The Advantages of OSINT

1993

US

PolicySteeleRole of Grey Lit & Non-Traditional Agencies in Informing Policy Makers

1993

US

PolicyToffler (Both)Knowledge Strategies, Intellience Restructuring,  Global Competitiveness

1993

US

PolicyWallnerOverview of IC Open Source Requirements and Capabilities

1993

US

PolicyWoodThe IC and the Open Source Information Challenge

1992

US

PolicyBarlowEFF and the National Public Network (NPN)

1992

US

PolicyCastagnaReview of Toffler’s PowerShift

1992

SE

PolicyDedijerOpen Source Solutions: Intelligence and Secrecy

1992

US

PolicyGageOpen Sources, Open Systems

1992

US

PolicyGreenwaldUnrepresented Nations & Peoples Organization: Diplomacy’s Cutting Edge

1992

US

PolicyHughesAn Affordable Approach to Networking America’s Schools

1992

US

PolicyKahinNew Legal Paradigms for Multi-Media Information in Cyberspace

1992

US

PolicyKahnOutline of a Global Knowledge Architecture, Visions and Possibilities

1992

US

PolicySteeleE3i: Ethics, Ecology, Evolution, and Intelligence

1992

US

PolicySteeleInaugural Remarks Opening 1st International Conference

1992

US

PolicySteeleInformation Concepts & Doctrine for the Future

1992

US

PolicySteeleOSINT Clarifies Global Threats: Offers Partial Remedy to Budget Cuts

1992

US

PolicySteeleReview Strassmann, Information PayOff

1992

US

PolicyWoodRemarks, Don’t Be Suspicious of Contractors

1991

US

PolicyJFK Working GroupNational Intelligence and the American Enterprise: Possibilities

1991

US

PolicyKarrakerHighways of the Mind

1991

US

PolicySteeleHow to Avoid Strategic Intelligence Failures in the Future

1990

US

PolicySteeleRecasting National Security in a Changing World

1957

US

PolicyWrightProject for a World Intelligence Center