Category: Cultural Intelligence

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INDICATIONS & WARNING: Political Violence Forecasts

Cultural Intelligence, Peace Intelligence
Berto Jongman Recommends...

Predictive Societal Indicators of Radicalism

In collaboration with our academic partners Prof. Cingranelli at the Political Science Department, SUNY Binghamton University and Profs. Sam Bell and Amanda Murdie at the Department of Political Science, Kansas State University, we developed a Domestic Political Violence Model that forecasts political violence levels five years into the future. The model enables policymakers, particularly in the COCOMs, to proactively plan for instances of increased domestic political violence, with implications for resource allocation and intelligence asset assignment. Our model uses the IDEA dataset for political event coding, plus numerous indicators from the CIRI Human Rights Dataset, Polity IV Dataset, World Bank, OECD, Correlates of War project, and Fearon and Laitin datasets.

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Here is our model’s forecast for 2010 – 2014 as a ranked list:

1. Iran  .  2. Sri Lanka  .  3. Russia  .  4. Georgia  .  5. Israel  .  6. Turkey  .  7. Burundi  .  8. Chad  .  9. Honduras  .  10. Czech Republic  .  11. China  .  12. Italy  .  13. Colombia  .  14. Ukraine  .  15.  Indonesia  .  16. Malaysia  .  17. Jordan  .  18. Mexico  .  19. Kenya  .  20.  South Africa  .  21.  Ireland  .  22. Peru  .  23. Chile  .  24. Armenia  .  25. Tunisia  .  26. Democratic Republic of the Congo  .  27. Belarus  .  28. Argentina  .  29. Albania  .  30. Ecuador  .  31. Sudan  .  32. Austria  .  33. Nigeria  .  34. Syria  .  35. Kyrgyz Republic  .  36. Egypt  .  37. Belgium

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NIGHTWATCH Extract: Egypt Dictator-Domino Falling?

07 Other Atrocities, 09 Justice, 10 Security, 11 Society, Advanced Cyber/IO, Civil Society, Counter-Oppression/Counter-Dictatorship Practices, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Peace Intelligence

Egypt: A spokesman for Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood announced that the group is making five urgent demands which the Egyptian government should comply with in order to avert several crises, according to a 19 January posting on the Muslim Brotherhood website.

Muhammad Mursi said the group wants Cairo to revoke the state of emergency, dissolve the People's Assembly and hold free and fair elections, amend the constitutional articles that led to vote rigging in Egypt's last elections, hold presidential elections according to those amendments, and fire the current government and form a national unity government responsive to the Egyptian people's demands.

Comment: The Brothers are belatedly trying to take advantage of the Tunisian uprising. Mubarak could die at any time, but as long as he possesses his faculties he will not fall for lies by his personal security chief, as did Tunisia's Ben Ali, and will not be intimidated by the Brotherhood.

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Phi Beta Iota: Dictators will fall before faux democracies because they are on the thinnest ice in the face of angry connected young people with legitimate grievances.  The PowerShift that Alvin and Heidi Toffler anticipated in the 19990's has begun to occur.  The other threat to civilization can be found in fundamentalists and relativists–those who treat faith as a cult or faith as a convenience.  It is a mistake to regard the Muslim Brotherhood as threatening–they are more of an indications & warning.  When  the right precipitant comes along, Egypt will fall, and the other 43 dictators will follow in relatively quick (ten years) time.  Now is when US covert action could shine, but first the White House and Congress and the military-industrial complex must be weaned of their love of dictators.  This is also a time when holistic all-source analysis could shine, helping guide a 180 degree turn away from dictators and toward democracy in time for the 2012 “Awakening.”

See Also:

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2012: Predictions & Possibilities

Advanced Cyber/IO, Cultural Intelligence, Earth Intelligence

Phi Beta Iota: The October 2011 Peace Summit being hosted by Pope BenedictXVI is a useful touchstone for reviewing the many predictions and possibilities that have been forecast with astonishing precision and documentation down through the ages.  There are two divergent interpretations; Phi Beta Iota accepts the second.

1.  End of Humanity–apocalypse, nuclear wars, plagues, red tides killing all sea life, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.  extraterrestrials optional.

2.  Wake-Up Call for Humanity–a convergence of exposed evils and the emergence of a much greater collective compassion and collective intelligence than most have imagined–from this, a “great turning.”

Here is one web site that presents a full range of predictions & possibilities:  2012 Predictions, and below, its active index:

New Age…Maya…Astronomy and space…Astrology…Environment…Media, science and technology…Health…Politics, social and economics…Religion…Other 2012 directories…Documentaries and films…Articles…Events…Precognitions and dreams…Spoofs and Satires

See Also:

Worth a Look: Book Review Lists (Positive)

Event: 26 Oct 2011 Assisi Italy Pope, Peace, & Prayer — 5th Inter-Faith Event Since 1986 — Terms of Reference…

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DELIBERATION: Jim Turner Dissects Paul Krugman

07 Other Atrocities, 11 Society, Civil Society, Cultural Intelligence

Jim Turner, #2 to Ralph Nader in the day, is co-author of VOICE OF THE PEOPLE–The Transpartisan Imperative in American Life.  This is his contribution to the current dialog.

My view is that Krugman's article —

America is divided by two very different views of government
Saturday, January 15, 2011

— as usual for him, is a clear and articulate presentation of the Order Left position.  Like his counterparts on the Order Right, it is long on proscription and short on empathy—lots of shoulds, theys, and inevitables, some but few mights, wes, and possibilities.  In this particular instance Order Left Krugman attacks his equally narrow Order Right adversaries over taxes and health as examples of a general indictment of political failure and takes no notice of the free right or the free left.

I admire Krugman as an exponent of his confined view and, when I accept his premises, often agree with him.  Nonetheless, he leaves out or minimizes, in this and other columns the fact that one of the biggest divides we face as a nation is the divide between a relatively united country and a significantly unrepresentative politics.

When I originally read this Column I picked out three points I thought were key to Krugman’s inability to successfully address the situation facing all Americans which he seems to want to do.

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NIGHTWATCH Extract: China Moves In on North Korea

02 China, 02 Diplomacy, 03 Economy, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Civil Society, Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Strategy

North Korea-China: North Korea will develop the islet of Hwanggumpyong on the Yalu River Delta linking Sinuiju with the Chinese city of Dandong as a special economic zone in cooperation with Chinese businessmen, Chosun Ilbo reported 18 January. North Korean Cabinet already approved a law on the development that will be announced in March or April.

Comment: This is another example of Chinese business tutelage for North Korea. All other special economic zones have either failed for lack of investors or been troubled by North Korean government meddling. In the last category are the Mount Kumgang resort on the east coast and the Kaesong joint industrial park, north of Panmunjom.

One would surmise that a joint venture with the Chinese would be relieved of the unpredictability of North Korean leadership whims, which have undermined the profitability of the joint ventures with the South Koreans. More importantly, every Chinese economic lifeline tossed into the North Korean economic morass is a burden on China and a restraint on North Korea.

The Chinese are moving slowly, but steadily based on their understanding of the magnitude of North Korean economic mismanagement. Thus far, they appear to be helping North Korean enterprises that have prospects of profitability, such as textiles, and Chinese enterprises that benefit from North Korean geography, such as ports and infrastructure on the Sea of Japan.

North Korea never has been self-reliant and its condition of dependency on the global economy has steadily deepened under Kim Chong-il. The Chinese appear determined to salvage what they can and rebuild the rest of North Korea in a different, more sustainable direction, slowly, by converting some North Korean activities into extensions of China's economy.

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Phi Beta Iota: The Chinese are out-thinking and out-maneuvering the USA on all fronts, and in a fascinating twist, may be egging the USA on to the same military-industrial death march that led to the end of the Soviet Union.  The above development should be studied in relation to WASHINGTON RULES: US-Korea-China-NK NAFTA.  In both instances, leaders are making strategic moves for reasons they consider valid, but that have nothing to do with the well-being of their respective publics.