Journal: C/JCS Shines on Iran-Israel

05 Iran, 08 Wild Cards, Military, Peace Intelligence
Chuck Spinney

Mullen Wary of Israeli Attack on Iran

by Ray McGovern

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Phi Beta Iota: We strongly recommend McGovern's article be read in its entirety.  Key points:

1.  US has no mutual defense treaty with Israel and no order to the US military to support Israel is Constitutionally valid without a Senate validation.

2.  Israel will not get away with a USS Liberty atrocity on Admiral Mike Mullen's watch.

3.  Washington is remains a moral and intellectual cesspool with the White House lacking a strategic analytic model, intelligence (decision-support) or any clue as to how to restore democracy and prosperity in America and peace in the rest of the world.   Partisanship–uninformed partisanship–is what runs the White House today and it is NOT WORKING.

4.  C/JCS has the right idea but the wrong company–no one now working in the US national security “establishment” has the combination of brains and integrity to actually propose a strategic analytic model; a reconstruction of secret intelligence so it provides non-secret decision-support to everybody now flying deaf, dumb, and blind in the NCA; and a redirection of the Pentagon so its budget funds the four forces after next–reform can be revenue and jobs neutral!

President Obama is at a fork in the road.  He can stick with business as usual–partisanship, polling, and proxies that pay lip service to concepts like “national security,” or he can commit to creating a national strategy that gets a grip on reality and then connects means, ways, and ends to achieve a prosperous world at peace.  From where we sit, C/CJS is the only person with both the right idea and the courage to speak the truth in public.  Three immediately useful references:

2009 Perhaps We Should Have Shouted: A Twenty-Year Restrospective

2010: Human Intelligence (HUMINT) Trilogy Updated

Search: QDR “four forces after next”

See also:

Continue reading “Journal: C/JCS Shines on Iran-Israel”

Journal: Three United Nations (UN) Memes Emergent

01 Agriculture, 04 Education, 07 Health, 12 Water, Collective Intelligence, Cultural Intelligence, Earth Intelligence, Non-Governmental, Peace Intelligence

Meme 1:  Separate Agency Budget Intelligence (SABI). The  United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)  may be within a year of a huge management advance, understanding, with decision-support, the relative return on investment (ROI) of its investments in relation to the ten high-level threats, many of which it is uniquely positioned to address.  Understanding that clean water and sanitation is the most important medical advancement since 1840, UNESCO is poised to call into question its excessive investments in vaccinations that yield little return and often create broader health issues, as opposed to focusing on micro-education (see meme 3) and micro-financiing of clean water initiatives.

Meme 2: integrated missions’ assessment and planning. This is the United Nations (UN) equivalent of Whole of Government planning, programming. and budgeting.  While non-existent within most governments, the UN appears to be realizing that with its back to the fall and the fate of over 175 “failed states” on the table, it might be time to add intelligence (decision-support)  to how it does business.  This means understanding that all threats and all policies have to be evaluated together and in relation (the Eastern way), and that all budgets and behaviors must be planned–harmonized–so as to achieve integrated outcomes, not outcomes in isolation that undermine “rest of system” stability.

Meme 3:  micro-education. This is a brand new meme but it defines practices that already exist and could be brought together.  With the vast majority of subsistence farmers still using ancient methods such as furrow irrigation, and many not recognizing the value of rain harvesting, there is a route opening for UNESCO by which it can leverage Alvin Toffler's insight and substitute information for capital, labor, time, and space.  Put bluntly, some micro-education is vastly more important than a complete (albeit mediocre) elementary education.  Micro-education on water and health appears to be the center of gravity for jump-starting the entrepreneurial possibilities among the extreme poor.  What no one has done is create a stacked list of “Essential Elements of Information” (EEI) that should be taught to the poor in priority order as part of “any and all” encounters.

Journal: Hedge Funds Attack European Economies

03 Economy, Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, Ethics, Government, Non-Governmental
Webster Griffin Tarpley

Webster G. Tarpley

March 3, 2010

It has been evident for some time that the ongoing speculative attack on Greece, along with such other countries as Spain, Ireland, Portugal, and Italy, was not primarily a reflection of their economic fundamentals, nor yet a spontaneous movement of “the market,” but rather an orchestrated action of economic warfare.

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Phi Beta Iota: There is no question but that Dr. Tarpley is correct at the moment, the hedge funds are waging economic war on Europe, are out of control, and need to be stomped down.  HOWEVER, what is not evident in his longer report is the fact that Europe welcomed help from Goldman Sachs and others in concealing its long-term debt, and it is for this reason that the hedge funds now have an “information advantage” that gives them a “sure bet” against the Euro generally and Greece specifically.  Until the United Nations (UN), the European Union (EU), the African Union (AU), the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR), and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)–to name just a few–get a grip on  the totality of the information relevant to their safety, security, and efficiency, predatory capitalism, virtual colonialism, and unilateral militarism will continue to rule.  Our new book, INTELLIGENCE for EARTH: Clarity, Diversity, Integrity, & Sustainability, provides a game plan for creating a prosperous world at peace by arming the UN, EU, AU, UNASUR, and SCO with the means to do multicultural, multifunctional information-sharing and sense-making.  Our favorite line from the book: a woman with a cell phone is vastly more powerful than a man with a gun.

True Cost: Cost of food-borne illnesses is deemed much higher than earlier estimates

01 Agriculture, 07 Health, 12 Water, Commerce, Cultural Intelligence, Earth Intelligence, Ethics, Government
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Among the food scares in recent years was a deadly E. coli outbreak tied to spinach. In most cases, it's unknown how or why people get ill from what they eat. (Justin Sullivan / Getty Images / September 15, 2006)

Phi Beta Iota: The second sentence is ignorant.  It is well-known that between industrial farming with zero regard for either the spill-over of animal shit into fields growing fruits and vegatables, combined with an exotic array of antibiotics for the animals (living in ghetto conditions) and pesticides for the plants, most of which have NOT been tested and are NOT regulated because of multiple legal loopholes, most of what we eat is mostly comprised of oil and corn and neither safe nor nutritious.  Corporate irresponsibility survives because government complacency has been purchased.  This is a superb example of “true cost” economics that will hit the marketplace like a tsunami in the next five years.  When man-made illnesses are combined with over-kill on man-made antibiotics, we end up with untreatable bacterial and other diseases, all of this forecast in the strongest possible terms in the past 20 years.

See also:

INTELLIGENCE for EARTH: Clarity, Diversity, Integrity, & Sustainability

The below book selections are pulled from Chapter 20 on 21st Century Counterintelligence:  Evaluating the Health of the Nation.  The fragementation of knowledge, and the ignorance of the media, the government, and the academy are now profoundly pathological.

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Journal: Stronger Signals of Armed Anger in USA

Civil Society, Collective Intelligence, Ethics, Government, Law Enforcement, Peace Intelligence
Armed Resistance in USA

There is a new nation-wide movement striving to innoculate the National Guard as well as state and local police forces against illegal orders from the Pentagon and the White House.  The basic loyalty to the Republic Oath elements are below.  This comes in reaction to three distinct tangibles and one unverified but provocative intangible that are circulating with increasing urgency among those who fear the two-party tyranny and a blindly-obedient Pentagon:

1)  Haliburton prison camps on US soil

2)  FEMA discussions with various state and local law enforcement agencies about “federalizing” state and local police in case of a “national” emergency

3)  Document said to be circulating within Washington on the prospects of an armed rebellion within the USA (we think secession and nullification much more likely, with armed resistance only if the federal government stupidly tries to use force against state and local resistance.

4)  Unverified but from a Special Forces source with eyes on and unblemished integrity: multiple US military camps, one in Washington State and one in Alabama, among other locations, at which battalion size units of foreign troops (men without a country) have been kept in isolation, armed and trained, for contingency use within the USA.  The same source says there is a long running PSYOP profiling program to identify for contingency need those  US military personnel who would be willing to disarm US citizens if ordered to do so.

Never thought we'd get to this point.  Visit the site above for a closer look.  This is a movement Of, By, and For We the People, and it has very strong West Point, retired USMC, and National Guard support. In our view, the US military itself is beginning to realize the topsy-turvy nature of the morphing of the Global War on Terror (which is a tactic, not a target) into a War on Liberty right here in America. As we have long maintained, it is vital that our military personnel remember that Integrity is about loyalty to the Constitution, not to the chain of command.

OATH KEEPERS: ORDERS WE WILL NOT OBEY

1. We will NOT obey orders to disarm the American people.

2. We will NOT obey orders to conduct warrantless searches of the American people

3. We will NOT obey orders to detain American citizens as “unlawful enemy combatants” or to subject them to military tribunal.

4. We will NOT obey orders to impose martial law or a “state of emergency” on a state.

5. We will NOT obey orders to invade and subjugate any state that asserts its sovereignty.

6. We will NOT obey any order to blockade American cities, thus turning them into giant concentration camps.

7. We will NOT obey any order to force American citizens into any form of detention camps under any pretext.

8. We will NOT obey orders to assist or support the use of any foreign troops on U.S. soil against the American people to “keep the peace” or to “maintain control.”

9. We will NOT obey any orders to confiscate the property of the American people, including food and other essential supplies. 10.We will NOT obey any orders which infringe on the right of the people to free speech, to peaceably assemble, and to petition their government for a redress of grievances.

Journal: Robert Baer on Transparency of Assassinations

07 Other Atrocities, 09 Terrorism, 10 Security, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Peace Intelligence

A Perfectly Framed Assassination

Stepped-up surveillance technology may be tipping the scales in the cat-and-mouse game between spies and their targets. Robert Baer on the current state of spycraft.

EXTRACT:

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I can only speculate about where exactly the hit went wrong. But I would guess the assassins failed to account for the marked advance in technology. Not only were there closed-circuit TV cameras in the hotel where Mr. Mabhouh was assassinated and at the airport, but Dubai has at its fingertips the best security consultants in the world. The consultants merely had to run advanced software through all of Dubai's digital data before, during and after the assassination to connect the assassins in time and place. For instance, a search of all cellular phone calls made in and around the hotel where Mr. Mabhouh was assassinated would show who had called the same number—reportedly a command post in Vienna. It would only be a matter then of tracking when and where calls were made from these phones, tying them to hotels where the team was operating or staying.

Phi Beta Iota: Robert Baer, who spoke to the international OSINT conference before the movie was made about his life as a case officer, is a most valued colleague who apart from being a speaker of truth and an author, has doubts about the 9/11 Commission and the general veracity of the U.S. Government.  He is a “tough love” patriot.  His newest opinion piece exposes the rapidly narrowing space for covert actions including assassinations and other behaviors that can no longer pass undetected.  As we pointed out a decade ago, it is no longer possible to create solid covers–instead of stealing or misappropriating them, we have been preaching 1) hire mid-career officers who have already built their covers unwittingly, and keep them in those real-world covers; and 2) stop doing the stupid shit.  95% of intelligence (decision-support) should b e legal and ethical.  All its takes is integrity and a leadership that actually knows something about full-spectrum intelligence and the point of it all: to create a Smart Nation.

Journal: Hunting Bin Laden

Government, Intelligence (Government/Secret), Military


Thomas Leo Briggs

The cover story in the February 2010 edition of Middle East Magazine, “Hunting Bin Laden“, leads with the statement that time may be running out for Osama bin Laden.  It goes on to say.

“Over the last two years or so, the elusive leader of Al Qaeda has seen dozens of his lieutenants and allies assassinated one after the other in Afghanistan and Pakistan in a whirlwind of attacks, often in the dead of night, by remote-controlled unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The stealthy craft, operated by the Central Intelligence Agency and the US air force, have become a weapon that has revolutionised warfare.”

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Anyone studying military history could not agree more.  The technological advances developed by the U.S. military since the first Gulf War have been staggering.  The combination of global positioning systems, laser guidance, detailed maps, radar, J-Stars, and moving target indicators made the delivery of bombs by piloted aircraft extremely accurate.  Now, with unmanned aircraft, tactical and strategic bomb delivery is ever more a major force multiplier.  Make a note here, however, that accurate and timely intelligence is the difference maker between bombing mistakes and successful air strikes.

The article alleges that American intelligence has improved over the last two to three years because of improved cooperation from Pashtun tribes.

“As the US braces for a major escalation in the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan, it is engaged in a new drive to kill or capture Bin Laden, declaring that he is the key to defeating Al Qaeda as a global threat.”

“That may be a rather fanciful rationale, but eight years after the Americans let him slip through their fingers at his Afghan mountain redoubt of Tora Bora, his last confirmed location on or about 16 December, 2001, they admit they haven’t a clue where he is now. The best guess is that he’s holed up in the lawless Waziristan tribal belt that runs along the rugged border with Afghanistan.”

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