Category: Advanced Cyber/IO

Study Explodes the Myth of Internet-Based Information Overload

The key differentiator between those who feel overwhelmened by the volume of information available today and those who feel empowered and enthusiastic appears to be….know-how. –Howard

From socialmediatoday.com – September 18, 12:41 PM

“But now, there’s proof that all this worry about information overload, message meltdown and attention crash is overinflated hyperventilating. A study out of Northwestern University finds that “very few Americans feel bogged down or overwhelmed by the volume of news and information at their fingertips and on their screens.”

Published in the journal The Information Society, the findings were based on seven focus groups with 77 participants from around the country. According to study author Eszter Hargittai, associate professor of communication studies, “We found that the high volume of information available these days seems to make most people feel empowered and enthusiastic. People are able to get their news and information from a diverse set of sources and they seem to like having those options.””

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Continue reading “Howard Rheingold: Myth of Internet-Based Overload – and a Lesson for for All Organizations”

The limits of Big Data

Michael Schrage

CNN, 10 October 2012

Two new books argue that algorithms can't fully replace human judgment. A review of Samuel Arbesman's The Half-Life of Facts and Nate Silver's The Signal and The Noise.

EXTRACT:

The ironic takeaway from both these fine books, however, is that the more data and facts one has, and the more predictions matter, the more important human judgment becomes. The co-evolution of human beings, datasets, and algorithms will ultimately determine whether Big Data creates new wealth or destroys old value.

Read full review.

Samuel Arbesman, The Half-Life of Facts: Why Everything We Know Has an Expiration Date (Current Hardcover, 2012)

FROM DESCRIPTION:

Doctors with a rough idea of when their knowl­edge is likely to expire can be better equipped to keep up with the latest research. Companies and govern­ments that understand how long new discoveries take to develop can improve decisions about allocating resources. And by tracing how and when language changes, each of us can better bridge gen­erational gaps in slang and dialect.

Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't (Penguin Press, 2012)

FROM DESCRIPTION:

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.