Gianni Koshinas: What Afghanistan Needs After 2014: A lighter, smarter, long-term commitment

01 Poverty, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Proliferation, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism, 10 Transnational Crime, Cultural Intelligence, Ethics, Government, IO Deeds of Peace, Military, Officers Call
Cianni Koskinas
Cianni Koskinas

使用谷歌翻译在下一列的顶部。

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Google sonraki sütunun üstünde Çevir kullanın.

Используйте Google Translate на вершине соседней колонке.

گوگل اگلے کالم میں سب سے اوپر ترجمہ کا استعمال کریں.

What Afghanistan Needs After 2014:  A lighter, smarter, long-term commitment

Gianni Koshinas

Foreign Policy, 12 February 2013

Maintaining a large military presence in Afghanistan is not in the strategic interests of either the U.S. or the Afghan government. It does not help the United States accomplish its long-term goal of countering terrorism from the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, nor its short-term goal of helping Afghanistan achieve stability and self-reliance in fighting insurgency. It is also economically unsustainable. However, retaining a smaller, lighter, residual presence in Afghanistan is critical to U.S. strategy and vital to core U.S. interests.

Additionally, U.S. strategy in Afghanistan must be based on a vision that goes out decades: Considering only short-term goals amounts to strategic myopia, unworthy of the sacrifices made by almost 2,200 U.S. service members in Afghanistan alone.

A Case for Lighter, Smarter, Long-term Residual Presence

With Osama Bin Laden dead and al-Qaeda's capabilities diminished in the Af-Pak region, the immediate threat of attacks on the U.S. from the region has greatly diminished.  But the ingredients that could help Al Qaeda regenerate in the next decade remain, and thus the mission endures.

In fact, the “surge” of U.S. troops in Afghanistan in 2009 had little to do with bin Laden; rather, it was an attempt to rescue the failing mission of stabilizing Afghanistan. Bin Laden was hunted and killed not by the surge, but by a small, specialized group, the likes of which I argue should remain in Afghanistan to monitor and guard against the long-term threat of terrorist cells.

More importantly, a comprehensive counter-terrorism strategy must include the training of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) to counter domestic threats. But this will take significantly longer than estimates suggest.  As such, the U.S. must alter its stated strategy in Afghanistan to consider the training and equipping of the ANSF a key element of its plan to counter threats, and support Afghanistan in its domestic fight against terrorists that, left unchecked, could re-emerge. The numbers of trainers must be kept low and should not be outsourced to contractors.  Currently, the only elements specifically designed to counter insurgencies are the U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF). Considering the nuanced task, the training force should be predominantly SOF.

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Berto Jongman: Ahmed Kashid on Why, and What, You Should Know About Central Asia

03 Economy, 05 Energy, 12 Water, Civil Society, Commerce, Cultural Intelligence, Earth Intelligence, Ethics, Government, IO Deeds of Peace, Peace Intelligence
Berto Jongman
Berto Jongman

EXTRACT:

China and Central Asia

None of the works under review provides the full answers to these questions, although Alexander Cooley’s book, Great Games, Local Rules, comes closest. They all agree on the unprecedented rise of China’s influence in Central Asia. Marlène Laruelle and Sébastien Peyrouse, scholars at George Washington University in Washington, D.C., demonstrate in The Chinese Question in Central Asia that China is already the dominant economic power in the region.

Click on Image to Enlarge
Click on Image to Enlarge

China has also taken care of one vital strategic interest since 1991: making sure that the Uighurs, China’s largest Muslim ethnic group who live in the western province of Xinjiang, do not seriously threaten to become independent and that the hundreds of thousands of Uighurs who live in Central Asia do not help them do so. During the 1950s large numbers of Uighurs fled the Maoist regime to seek shelter in Soviet Central Asia where they were relatively well treated.

After 1991 China put immense pressure on the three Central Asian states that border Xinjiang—Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan—to tightly restrict all Uighur political activity on their soil. China offered sweeteners such as resolving the border disputes that had plagued Chinese–Soviet relations in Central Asia for decades. Within a decade the borders between China and the Central Asian states were demarcated and settled, allowing for China’s rapid economic involvement in the region.

Still, Uighur nationalism and Islamic militancy have continued to mount in Xinjiang, as China has inundated the province with Han Chinese and severely repressed the Muslims. While the Uighur populations in Central Asia have been largely silenced, some Uighurs have been training and fighting with the Taliban in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

During the past decade China has invested heavily in Central Asia. Laruelle and Peyrouse write that

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Berto Jongman: What Do Afghan Insurgents Want?

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 11 Society, Academia, Civil Society, Cultural Intelligence, Ethics, IO Deeds of Peace, Peace Intelligence
Berto Jongman
Berto Jongman

Understanding Afghan Insurgents – Motivations, Goals, and the Reconciliation and Reintegration Process

Who Are They? What Do They Want? Why Do They Fight?

This paper presents the results of 78 in-depth interviews conducted with self-identified Afghan insurgents. If the interviewees are indeed representative of broader Taliban sentiments, then the future of Afghanistan is grim. It appears that only the return of a ‘pious’ Islamic government will satisfy them.

Author: Andrew Garfield, Alicia Boyd

Series: FPRI Monographs and Essays Issue: 3

James Stavrides: Interview on Smart Power by Oliver Barrett

IO Deeds of Peace
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Click on Image to Enlarge

Talking ‘Smart Power' With Admiral Stavridis

By Oliver Barrett

US News & World Report, July 25, 2013

With one-liners like, “We are excellent at launching Tomahawk missiles; we need to get better at launching ideas,” it is not hard to appreciate why The New York Times labeled recently retired Admiral James Stavridis a “Renaissance admiral.” Labels like “innovator” and “thought leader” may be overused, but Stavridis lives up to the hype, nudging the U.S. military not only to be more adaptive and less insular, but also to re-examine its role in international conflict resolution in places like Latin America and Afghanistan.

The former Aircraft Carrier Group Commander, TED Talk guest, author and overlord of all NATO missions, including the 2011 NATO-led operation in Libya, champions a revolutionary approach to the most vexing conflicts of our day. Stavridis has challenged the stagnant military culture and pushed for the transformation of organizations like U.S. Southern Command from an old school military planning citadel to an agile organization better able to “plug ‘n play” with non-traditional partners. The admiral believes the U.S. can help partners to end conflict quickly, reconstruct and then develop through the application of “smart power”: the effective combination of soft power (diplomacy and development) and hard power (military might).

Read full interview (Q&A).

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Alessandro Politi: The First Financial World War

03 Economy, 07 Other Atrocities, Commercial Intelligence, Cultural Intelligence, IO Deeds of Peace
Alessandro Politi
Alessandro Politi

This article is divided into two parts: the first part will summarise the situation and propose solutions, explaining the analytical and geopolitical reasons behind the war, the main players and events, future evolution and political proposals; the second will set out the events in chronological form, in order to avoid including an excessive amount of detail in the previous part.

. . . . . . . .

Democratic politics has been kidnapped and intoxicated by the insidious totalitarianism of finanzcapitalism. If democracy is not capable of winning back its independence and freedom, we may only have the cold comfort of living in a science fiction world where financial zaibatsu control the planet and Blade Runner will seem like a children’s fairy-tale.

2013-07-19 Politi First Financial World War

NIGHTWATCH: China Manages North Korea

02 China, 08 Wild Cards, Ethics, Government, IO Deeds of Peace, Peace Intelligence
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Click on Image to Enlarge

North Korea-China: Xinhua published remarks of Chinese State Councilor and former Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi and North Korean First Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan, who held discussions today, 21 June.

Yang said: Positive results have been achieved in the strategic dialogue between foreign affairs departments of the two countries. China is willing to work with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) to promote the sound and stable development of relations between the two countries. China insists on actualizing non-nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, insists on maintaining peace and stability on the peninsula, and insists on resolving issues through dialogue and consultation. Currently, an easing momentum has emerged in the situation on the peninsula, which is nevertheless still complex and sensitive. It is hoped that all parties will actively engage in dialogue and contact, push for the situation to continue to turn better, and seek an early resumption of the six-party talks.”

Kim said: Friendship between the DPRK and China has a long history. It is hoped that the two sides will inherit it and carry it forward. Non-nuclearization of the peninsula is the instruction left behind by President Kim Il-song and General Secretary Kim Chong-il. The DPRK hopes the situation on the peninsula will ease, insists on resolving issues through dialogue, and is willing to take part in various forms of dialogue including the six-party talks.”

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Mother Jones: Latin American Nations Distance Themselves from USA, Debate Legalizing Marijuana

01 Brazil, 07 Venezuela, 08 Wild Cards, Civil Society, Commerce, Cultural Intelligence, Ethics, Government, IO Deeds of Peace, IO Sense-Making

"Do Not Piss Me Off!"Latin American Nations Debate Legalizing Pot

—By

Mon Jun. 10, 2013

At last week's annual summit of the Organization of American States, Latin American leaders distanced themselves from the United States' drug policies and agreed to consider the widespread legalization of marijuana.

The OAS summit “was really a tipping point for this movement” to end the war on drugs, said Pedro Abramovay, a campaign director for Avaaz, a global nonprofit group that has petitioned the OAS to liberalize its drug policies.

The move comes as Uruguay debates a bill to legalize the production and sale of pot (it is already legal there for personal use) and as Chile considers decriminalizing it. Latin American leaders also have kept a close eye on how Colorado and Washington, having legalized marijuana, will go about regulating its consumption.

At the summit, which wrapped up on Friday in Antigua, Guatemala, delegates reviewed a recent OAS study that explores a range of options for a new regional drug policy that might include legalizing or decriminalizing cannabis, and even abandoning the fight against the coca production in some areas. “Never before has a multilateral organization engaged in such an inclusive and intellectually legitimate analysis of drug policy options,” Ethan Nadelmann, executive director of the Drug Policy Alliance, said in a statement. The delegates agreed to create a high-level commission to debate the study and make policy suggestions.

Read full article.