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The failure of the so-called Super-Committee to come up with a plan for reducing the federal deficit has put the automatic sequestration process into play, at least for the time being. If executed, sequestration will impose arbitrary across-the-board spending cuts in the belief that reduced federal spending will reduce the deficit and reverse our economic malaise.
That a brute-force sequester will improve the economy is a contentious proposition, put it charitably. Opponents of the sequester argue that spending cuts by the federal government will depress demand and could even push the economy back into recession. The question of where the deficits are coming from is made doubly important by the threat of a sequester and the fact that we are on the cusp of a presidential election year.
No doubt, anticipating the collapse of the Super Committee, Congressman Chris Van Holland (D-MD), the ranking minority member of the House Budget Committee asked the Director of the Congressional Budget Office on 27 September to provide an estimate of portion of the deficit that is attributable to the economy's underutilization of capital and labour resources.
CBO's responded with a letter report hat estimated the federal deficit for 2012 would be one-third lower, or $630 billion instead of the $973 billion currently projected if the economy was running at full potential — see the attached pdf file.
I asked my friend Marshall Auerback, a financial commentator, for his evaluation of the CBO analysis.
Below, FYI, is Auerback's assessment to the CBO estimate.
——[Auerback Commentary]—–
CBO probably understates the effect of the recession on the deficit.. We do know that tax revenues as a percentage of GDP plunged in 2008.
COL Killebrew is generally a pretty smart guy. Here he makes three points I agree with:
a. The fiscal crisis is largely self-imposed;
b. Ground forces are going to be disproportionately screwed;
c. At least in the near term, “by, with, and through” rather than US unilateral is the option of choice;
and one that I don't:
d. US has the resources, expertise, and will to make the right choices. Don't agree with that, particularly regarding expertise and will.
The following video by Jonah Sachs, creative director at Free Range Studios has prompted me to get back to completing the next installment in this Essential Skills series. He does a beautiful job revealing the secrets of effective and high-impact storytelling.
One of the concepts Jonah presents is that of a “myth gap.” He defines ‘myth’ as the combination of Explanation + Meaning + Story. Historically, myths are the vehicles of culture. They provide a context and framework for the world, hopefully imparting wisdom, insight and guidance as to how we should live our lives. (ie – myth of Genesis). But sometimes, society falls in a myth gap.
Like now.
Another way of saying this is that the cultural narrative is broken.
. . . . . . .
So what are some stories shaping culture today?
Well here’s a few that I’ve been listening to and weaving into the architecture of my own mind:
Makers, hackers, prosumers, and cultural creatives are the driving force of the new economy.
It makes practical sense to support local economies, buy food that’s grown regionally when possible, and build resilience by creating infrastructures designed to weather uncertainty.
The “future of money” is about cooperation over competition. We’re llearning how to intelligently share resources, build value together, and display integrity in thought, word and action – which is then reflected in a boost of social currencies like reputation, influence, trust, authority, and access to opportunities.
Mindless consumption is uninspiring, and ultimately a distraction from engaging in the types of behavior that actually lead to sustained happiness. These include: spending time with people we love, having goals and actively working towards accomplishing them, and cultivating gratitude daily for having the opportunity to experience Life.
These are just a few narratives that keep me inspired and motivated these days.
What stories are guiding you towards a more meaningful future?
In today’s polarized and fractured narrative landscape, the winners are those who can get above the noise and weave new mythologies that act as a beacon of light for the path ahead. As a wise man once said:
Isn't this what is supposed to happen in a Free Market System? What is wrong with comparison shopping? Taking advantage of technology by a nimble company versus a staid old one is the essence of entrepreneurship And now a Senator is getting involved? Looks like more of the same, no integrity…
Retailers and a senator denounce a one-day promotional offer that will give discounts to Amazon customers who use the Price Check app while browsing at physical stores.
Phi Beta Iota: Amazon has gotten inside the OODA Loop of the small retailers. If they were adept, which they are not, they would return the favor by focusing on “true cost” to the consumer of all the externalities, and restructure their businesses to emphasize local employment, customer-driven inventory, etcetera, etcetera.
China-Mekong River Nations: Chinese press reported that joint security patrols with Thailand, Laos and Burma/ Myanmar will begin along the Mekong River. At a ministerial meeting in Beijing, the four countries agreed to begin the first patrol before 15 December and that the operation's headquarters be located in China. The patrols will allow shipping to restart and guarantee security with China to help train and equip police in Laos and Myanmar.
Comment: Many younger Readers might not know that the Mekong River originates in southwest China and flows southwards through Southeast Asia to the South China Sea. The omission of Cambodia from the joint agreement indicates the security problems are in the upper reaches of the river. Thus, the security problems are in effect, inland waterways security issues along navigable waterways.
The interesting dynamic is the Chinese success in moving southward, by exploiting lapses of local security along a key waterway, to extend the Chinese sphere of influence. The Chinese have not had Chinese patrol boats or river security advisors on the Mekong along the Laos, Burma and Thai borders in centuries.
Phi Beta Iota: Viet-Nam, long a co-equal and counter-weight to China in Southeast Asia, is not mentioned. As the map illuminates, Cambodia and Viet-Nam control the entry points to the Mekong River. Viet-Nam's control of the eastern coast also precludes–absent an agreement–an obvious option for future commerce, a major canal or rail cut from the Mekong east to Vinh, one of four Grade 1 cities in Viet-Nam, a major ground transport hub, and a notable port.
