Category: Journal ISSN 1078-1935

The  report of Damian McElroy in the Telegraph [UK] describes General Petraeus new strategy for Afghanistan.  It will be have a broad emphasis on counterinsurgency, like McChrystal's strategy, but McElroy highlighted the following (presumed) differences or distinguishing features:

Recognition that Taliban defections are crucial to achieving goal of ending war in 4 yrs (2014). … Observation: no talk about the drawdown starting in summer 2011, 2014 is now a “given.” So one benefit of substituting Petraeus for McChrystal is that politicians and generals can save face and keep defense budgets high while “bow-waving” the end of the war to 2014, well beyond the end of Mr. Obama’s presidency, and at which time, new excuses to continuing the wars of empire will materialize. “Bow waving” problems into the future is business as usual in the hall of mirrors that is Versailles on the Potomac.

Petraeus’ new strategy will induce more defections by paying Taliban defectors. Observation: this implies a rent-a-Pashtun strategy like Petraeus' rent-a-Sunni strategy in Iraq, even though recent events in Iraq show that renting Sunnis did not end sectarian violence in Iraq; nor did it provide conditions for a lasting peace.  It did provide enough of a reduction in violence to let us declare victory and begin something of a drawdown (50,000 troops will remain in permanent bases).  Renting Pastuns, by the way, is not a new way to exit Afghanistan.  Alexander the Great, for example, had to bribe local tribes to “remove” the hostile tribes who were blocking his exit route by controlling the Khyber Pass.  My guess that the tribes split the profits and something similar will happen to our rental payments.

Continue reading “Journal: New Strategy for Afghanistan? Or Just a New Naked Emperor and a 2012 Bow Wave?”