NIGHTWATCH: China-Jordan, Syria Questions, Russia-Arctic

02 China, 06 Russia, 08 Wild Cards, Government, Military

China-Jordan: The Foreign Ministry also said that on Tuesday, Yang met with King of Jordan Abdullah II ibn Al-Hussein on bilateral ties, the Syria situation and the Middle East peace process.

King Abdullah II is paying a state visit to China from 15 to 18 September, at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Comment: Jordan is looking for Chinese help with refugees and its economic burdens. China is in a position to advance its interests and influence because of the ripple effects of the Syria crisis, along with Russia. China has welcomed the UN inspection report on Syria, but has not commented about who executed the 21 August sarin attack.

Syria: Special note. The UN inspectors judged that one of the two rockets they examined was an M14 140mm rocket, which is fired from a BM-14 multiple rocket launcher. NightWatch checked the web today to try to determine whether the Syrian Arab Army still fields or keeps in inventory or storage BM-14s. The BM-14 is a an old system, a variation of the Soviet World War II BM-13 towed or truck-mounted, 16-round Katyusha multiple rocket launcher.

One reason for the search is that this weapon system is more than 70 years old and was replaced in most Soviet-equipped armies decades ago. Usually it was replaced by the BM-21 122-mm multiple rocket launcher. Syria can make these rockets.

A second reason for the search is that the BM-14 is an area saturation weapon. An army rocket unit usually would not fire it singly or in small numbers for a tactical mission. Each salvo should launch at least 16 rockets.

Global Security posts to the web detailed inventories of military equipment fielded by most national armies, including that of the Syrian army. Its charts show the Syrian army fields large numbers of BM-21s, but no BM-14s. They also show no rocket launcher that fires a rocket with a diameter of 330-mm. The UN inspectors found parts of such a rocket, but could not match it to any systems they knew. Our search found that Iran's Fajr-5 333-mm rocket is the closest in diameter, but it is 18 feet long.

Global Security's information might be incomplete and the numbers are estimates. However, the site has proven to be a reliable source of detailed military information. Its list of the types of major items of equipment that the Syrian army fields is reliable. The list does not include the BM-14.

The question for Feedback is where did the M-14 rocket come from? Who is still using this system in Syria? Does Syria still have stocks of long outdated rockets? Did the opposition capture any?

Russia: On Monday, President Putin announced that Russia is set to reopen a military base on the Arctic's Novosibirsk Islands, which it closed in 1993 with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Putin pointed to efforts to create a northern coast global shipping route and to defend Arctic energy resources as reasons for reinstating operations on the base. The islands are off the coast of eastern Siberia.

Comment: Russia announced that it has begun patrolling the Arctic Ocean sea lanes which are now passable in summer months. The Northern Fleet flagship, the guided missile cruiser Peter the Great led a ten ship flotilla on a 2,000 mile patrol to the Islands, which arrived last Thursday. Russia announced they have returned to Siberia to stay. Russia also intends to rebuild airfields and other infrastructure in the Arctic region. Strategic air deployments to the Arctic might resume.

One reason is the Northern Sea Route cuts two weeks off shipping time and that cuts shipping costs to Europe. Another is that receding ice sheets have made exploitation of sea and seabed resources cost effective and practical.

4th Media: Western Threats and UN Resolution Authorizing Force a Cover Up for Striking and Wrecking Syria?

04 Inter-State Conflict, 06 Russia, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, IO Deeds of War

4th media croppedWestern Threats Could “WRECK” SYRIA Peace Talks: West Intends to Strike Syria

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday warned that talk by western countries on the adoption of a “threatening” United Nations resolution on Syria could wreck peace efforts.

He spoke after Britain, France and the United States at a Paris meeting agreed on the need for a “strong and binding” UN resolution on the transfer of Syria’s chemical weapons to international control.

Lavrov said Russia opposed proposals by Western powers to swiftly pass a resolution including the use of force under Chapter Seven of the UN charter.

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Veterans Today: Kerry Was Wrong – Turkey Indicts Six Jihadists for Sarin — Not Whole Story But Good Start

02 Diplomacy, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Proliferation, 08 Wild Cards, Ethics, Government, IO Impotency, Officers Call

veterans todayKerry Was Wrong

Turkish prosecutor indicts six jihadists for alleged attempts to acquire chemicals with intent to produce sarin

Does the truth really set you free?  Do I care?
Does the truth really set you free? Do I care?

The Turkish Republican Prosecutor in Adana has issued a 132-page indictment, alleging that six members of the al-Qaeda-aligned al-Nusra Front and Ahrar ash-Sham – one Syrian and five Turks – tried to acquire chemicals with the intent to produce the chemical weapon sarin.

The Turkish newspaper Radikal reports that the suspects were under surveillance by Turkish police after they received information that the al-Nusra members tried to acquire two government-regulated military-grade chemical substances.

11 people were arrested in their safe house in the city of Adana in southeastern Turkey on May 23, 2013, after they had acquired some of the chemicals.

Read full article.

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Chuck Spinney: Bill Polk Primer on Syria & Chemical Weapons

03 Environmental Degradation, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 05 Iran, 06 Russia, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Proliferation, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism, 10 Security, 10 Transnational Crime, 11 Society, Civil Society, Cultural Intelligence, Ethics, Extraterrestial Intelligence, Government, Military, Officers Call, Strategy
Chuck Spinney
Chuck Spinney

My friend Bill Polk, a well-known historian with extensive experience in the Middle East and Central Asia and author of many books on these areas, has written a backgrounder on how to make sense out of the Syrian chemical weapons issue.  He has given me permission to distribute it.  Herewith is his most interesting primer on the Syrian chemical weapons issue.

Chuck Spinney

Reflections on the Syrian Chemical Weapons Issue and Beyond

William R. Polk

September 15, 2013

1.The Variety of Weapons and Their characteristics
2 A Short History of Chemical Weapons
3 The Russian Intervention
4 Why the Syrians Have Accepted the Russian Proposal
5. The Prospects for Ridding The Area of Weapons of Mass Destruction
6 The Possibility of Ending the Civil War
7 Who Are the Insurgents and What do they Want?
8 Predictable Results of a Collapse of the Syrian State

Full essay below the line.

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Berto Jongman Et Al: Syria Round-Up 7.4

08 Wild Cards, Ethics
Berto Jongman
Berto Jongman

NEW IN BOLD

4th Media:  AP Sources: CIA Delivering Light Weapons to Syria

4th Media: Preempting The Next Round of Lies Against Syria

Berto Jongman: 10,000 Foreign Fighters in Syria

Berto Jongman: Agreement on Destruction of Syrian CW

Berto Jongman: Brown Moses on Chemical Munitions

Berto Jongman: Developments on the Ground in Syria

Berto Jongman: FBI files reveal al-Qaeda leader invited to visit Pentagon (Text +Video)

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NIGHTWATCH: Syria

08 Proliferation, 08 Wild Cards, Peace Intelligence

Syria: Syrian ambassador to the UN Jaafari said, “Legally speaking Syria has become, starting today, a full member of the (chemical weapons) convention.” He made the statement after submitting relevant documents to the United Nations.

He said President Bashar al-Asad signed a legislative decree on Thursday that “declared the Syrian Arab Republic approval to accede to the convention” and that Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Mu'allim had written to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) to notify it of Syria's decision to join the convention.

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Chuck Spinney: When a KGB President Lectures the USA — And Holds the Moral High Ground…Say What?

06 Russia, 08 Wild Cards, Ethics, IO Deeds of Peace, Lessons, Officers Call

Chuck Spinney
Chuck Spinney
Who Benefits From America's State of Perpetual War?


Putin Lectures Obama

by FRANKLIN C. SPINNEY, COUNTERPUNCH, SEPTEMBER 12, 2013

That our Noble Peace Prize winning President and the Congress needed a rational lecture [also attached below] on the need for a little common sense in foreign policy, from a graduate of the KGB, says a lot about about the degraded nature of domestic politics in the United States.

Domestic politics do not end at the water’s edge, as the foreign policy elite would like us to believe. On the contrary, any nation’s foreign policy is always a reflection of its domestic politics. (see for example, Robert Dallek’s insightful history, The American Style of Foreign Policy: Cultural Politics and Foreign Affairs.) The political soap opera surrounding Obama’s quest to bomb Syria is a case in point. Two thirds of the American people opposed the war, yet elites have been debating how to ignore the will of the people. These domestic politics are the real subject of Putin’s lecture. Implicitly, his lecture is also about the democratic duty of American citizens to reign in the elites claiming falsely to be acting in their name.

Should a former KGB agent be giving advice to the people of a constitutional democracy?

Think about the pathway that ‘democracy’ has travelled on over the last twelve years: On September 11, 2001, the entire world was on the side of the United States. In fact one of the largest, if not the largest, of the world wide demonstrations in support of the United States was a mass vigil in Tehran, Iran — a country we promptly denounced as being part of an axis of evil. Twelve years later, America is increasingly isolated, its leadership elites having used 9-11 as a pretext to fabricate rationales for invading Afghanistan and Iraq and for bombing Libya, Yemen, Pakistan, and Somalia. Now Syria is in the crosshairs for reasons that are questionable, to put it charitably, and once again, the elites are fabricating stories to get their way.

America is in a state of perpetual war with large parts of the Muslim world. America is viewed by more and more people around the world, including some of its non-Muslim allies, as a self-righteous, narcissistic super power that believes its exceptional status gives it the right to bomb and bully anyone it deems to be a ‘threat’ to its interests or moral values.

Putin’s subliminal message may well be: Look, we ended the Cold War; now, at long last, is it not time for America to undergo a national introspection of its own and end its state of perpetual war, before it further destabilizes even larger swathes of the world?

Perhaps we, as the owners of our government, should be asking ourselves questions like –

How did our country land itself in a state of perpetual war?

Is our President, a man who excited the world, including Syria,* with promises to change in America’s behaviour, the cause of the problem evoking Putin’s lecture? Or is Mr. Obama merely a front man presiding over a deeper, more profound set of domestic political distortions? Is he a protector of an increasingly dysfunctional, distinctly un-American status quo domestic political apparat that benefits the richest one percent at the expense of the masses?

How and why did the American people allow their elites and political representatives — Republicans and Democrats alike — to exploit 9-11 in an arbitrary way to place our nation on a grotesque moral pathway into a shameful state of mismatches between the (1) values we profess to uphold and others expect us to uphold, (2) those values we actually hold dear as demonstrated by our actions, and (3) the conditions in the world we have to contend with?

But most importantly, with respect to domestic politics of America’s state of perpetual war, Cui Bono?

———————

*I was in Levantine, Syria in the summer of 2008, and the excitement on the street over Obama’s possible election and the promise it held for the Middle East was palpable and infectious.

Franklin “Chuck” Spinney is a former military analyst for the Pentagon and a contributor to Hopeless: Barack Obama and the Politics of Illusion, published by AK Press.

——[Putin's Lecture below the line]—–

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