Journal: Yemen and the “Great Game”

02 China, 03 India, 05 Iran, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Communities of Practice, Ethics, Peace Intelligence, Threats
Chuck Spinney

The real motives behind the increasing US involvement in Yemen are obscure, to put it charitably. M.K. Bhadrakuma, retired Indian diplomat, presents a complex and fascinating — and no doubt controversial — hypothesis in this regard. Bhadrakuma, a prolific writer, is an astute observer of the Central and South Asia, and judged by his writings, he is by no means a toady of the Indian government.

Chuck

UPDATED to add critique of the below article by a colleague of Chuck Spinney's (below the fold).

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Obama's Yemeni odyssey targets China

By M K Bhadrakumar     Asia Times    9 January 2010

It's all about China
Most important, however, for US global strategies will be the massive gain of control of the port of Aden in Yemen. Britain can vouchsafe that Aden is the gateway to Asia. Control of Aden and the Malacca Strait will put the US in an unassailable position in the “great game” of the Indian Ocean. The sea lanes of the Indian Ocean are literally the jugular veins of China's economy. By controlling them, Washington sends a strong message to Beijing that any notions by the latter that the US is a declining power in Asia would be nothing more than an extravagant indulgence in fantasy.

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Journal: Iran, Sacred Nukes, & US Ignorance

05 Energy, 05 Iran, 08 Proliferation, 10 Security, 11 Society, Cultural Intelligence

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When Nukes Become Sacred

The psychology behind Iranian support for the country's nuclear program

Newsweek, Sharon Bagley, 8 January 2010

With sacred values, this cost-benefit calculus is turned on its head, explains anthropologist Scott Atran of the National Center for Scientific Research in Paris, who has studied Islamic terrorist groups. When Atran asked Palestinians if they would be willing to give up their claims to Jerusalem (a sacred value) in return for their own state, most said no, and—here is where the topsy-turvy thinking caused by sacred values came in—when he then asked if they would give up Jerusalem if the U.S. and Europe also gave every Palestinian family substantial financial assistance for a year, even fewer said yes. That is in sharp contrast to the rational-actor perspective that has long dominated diplomacy (and economics).

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Journal: Strong Signals–Azerbaijan in Play

02 Diplomacy, 05 Iran, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Military, Peace Intelligence

Phi Beta Iota: We now know that no one briefed the White House on the fact that Iraq was deeply divided between Sunnis in power and Shi-ites under repression.  We have to ask ourselves if anyone has figured out that Azerbaijan is the other Shi'ite majority nation.

Shi'ites Rock On....

Iran starts to introduce visa-free regime with Azerbaijan on February 1 – Head of the press service of the Iranian Embassy

Earlier Iranian Ambassador to Azerbaijan Mohammad Bagir Behrami said that any Azerbaijani citizen can travel to Iran without a visa and stay for one month.

The ambassador expressed hope that the Azerbaijani side will take a similar step.

ACNIS criticizes Azerbaijani president’s renewed threats of war

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Armenian Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS) Director Richard Giragosian issued a statement today criticizing Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s renewed “threats of war.

Have Beard, Will Travel

Azerbaijani citizen arrested in Afghanistan on suspected link to al Qaeda

Baku. Elmin Ibrahimov-APA. Afghanistan National Security Directorate (NSD) has announced that a member of the al-Qaida network was arrested in the country’s eastern province of Khost.

Turkey urges Armenia to resolve problems with Azerbaijan

“Normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia is not enough,” Turkish foreign ministry spokesman Burak Özügergin told a press briefing on Wednesday. “If Armenia does not resolve Upper Karabakh dispute with Azerbaijan, stability in the Caucasus can not be established. This is quite clear.”


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Journal: One World, Region by Region, Tribe by Tribe

02 China, 03 India, 05 Iran, 06 Russia, 08 Wild Cards, Commercial Intelligence, Earth Intelligence, Peace Intelligence, Policies
Chuck Spinney

Phi Beta Iota: Chuck Spinney's flagging of the below piece supports the point we were making with the post on dynamic planning.  For fifty years the USA has been throwing its weight around on the basis of partisan, ideological, and often illegimiate purposes, and it has been able to get a way with it because in an Industrial Era, might does make right.  We are no longer in an Industrial Era.  We've entered an era in which information asymmetries are being extinguished, while power asymmetries are emergent–demographic power trumps everything else when you get right down to it.  This entire web site makes that point in the aggregate.  On a sidenote, Kashmir is about water but no one seems to acknowledge that.  Water is one of the things we are going to have to figure out how to do in a non-zero fashion.  Hence, for the USA to dig itself a grave in Central Asia without giving any thought to the ten high-level threats to humanity as a whole, and the twelve policies, and the eigth demographic challengers, and to calculate a non-zero course through this maze, is nothing more than idiocy on steriods.

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The Afghan Triangle: Kashmir, India, Pakistan

Graham Usher

Graham Usher is a writer and journalist based in Pakistan and a contributing editor of Middle East Report.

For the last 61 years the fight has been fought, mostly, in and for Indian-occupied Kashmir (IoK): the territory Delhi and Islamabad have contested since the 1947 partition cleaved them into two states—and Kashmir into “Pakistani” and “Indian” parts. Sometimes (1947, 1965, 1971, 1999) the war has been hot. More often it has been waged via Pakistani proxies against a standing Indian military. Since 1989, it has been channeled through a low-intensity, Pakistan-backed separatist-Islamist insurgency that has killed 50,000 people and incurred an Indian military occupation three times the size of America’s in Iraq and three times as lethal.

See also:

Scott Atran

Scott Atran

Professor and author

Posted: December 30, 2009 11:57 AM

The Terror Scare

Search: map of iranian influence in africa

05 Iran, Communities of Practice, Cultural Intelligence

Phi Beta Iota: Extremely cool search!  Should be combined with a map of Chinese, Turkish, and Brazilian influence in Africa.  OSS.Net, Inc. drew on its European allies to provide the tribal maps for Afghanistan and Iraq to Special Forces prior to their going in, and we are still astonished at the complete lack of a serious geospatial mapping capability focused on tribes, influence, and so on.

Let's start with Iran itself.  Below is a map of its own divisions.

Iran's Ethnic Distribution

So when you talk about Iranian influence across Africa, you want to be very clear about both the ethnic roots of the Iranian influence element at point X, and the tribal-ethnic roots of the African element coming into contact with Iranian influence.

We are long over-due for anthropologically-correct maps of the various diasporas, with China, Iran, and Saudi Arabia being among the most important, the latter because of the extreme corruption of their leadership and the extreme virrulence of Wahabbism.

See the graphic on Africa (7) and also, for excellence of depictions, Atlases & State of the World (21).

Articles:

Iran's activity in East Africa

Iran's Activity In East Africa, The Gateway To The Middle East And The African Continent

Cliick on above for a fine report with good detail dated 7 August 2009.  The below images come from that report.

The Iranian regime's activities in African countries

Saudis act to counter Iran's influence in the Mideast – Africa & Middle East

The Iranians have been very active in Latin America during the past ten years, at the same time that the Chinese have been using Macao to launch very deliberate campaigns into all former Portuguese territories.

Journal: MILNET Headlines (Selected)

05 Iran, 08 Wild Cards, Military
We always do the right thing---we just try everything else first....
We always do the right thing---we just try everything else first....

AA:  Playboy undercover with Dennis Montgomery, who ‘fooled CIA over Al-Jazeera codes'

AA:  Our Flip-Flopping Wars

AF: Afghanistan For The Short Term

AF: Allegation: Some Contractors In Afghanistan Paying Protection Money To Taliban

AF: First New U.S. L-3 Spy Plane Due In Afghanistan By Christmas

AF: The Familiar Road To Failure In Afghanistan

IQ: ‘It’s A Whole New Mission’–Iraq: Stryker troops doing detective work

IR: Top US Officer: Force Must Be Option For Iran

Officers Call: A Conversation About Iraq II

02 China, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 05 Iran, 10 Security, Analysis, Ethics, IO Sense-Making, Military, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence
Officers Call on Iraq II
Officers Call on Iraq II

Sir,

There's nothing inherently wrong with the analysis of Al Qaeda (I just glanced at it, if you wish I can read in detail today).  The PROBLEM lies not so much in how we analyze support to terrorism (state, crime, other) but rather in the way we analyze (or rather do NOT analyze) EVERYTHING.

Here's what I have thrown together for you, in six pages with links.

Summary of Contents (OC Iraq II)

  • Why We Missed the Threat
  • Terrorism is Threat Number Nine Out of Ten
  • Terrorism is a Tactic, Al Qaeda an Interest Group
  • Without Legitimacy Forget About Stabilization
  • Rebalancing the Instruments of National Power
  • Three Things Secret Intelligence Cannot Do
  • Advise & Assist Transition to Exit Menu
    • Strategic Communications
    • Inter-Agency Professionals
    • Regional Concordat
    • Faith Brigades
    • Redirect Funds Toward Waging Peace
    • Contain Israel
    • Make Nice with China

Officers Call on Iraq I

Semper Fidelis,  Robert