Berto Jongman: Russian Nonlinear War (“Gerasimov Doctrine”) — While US in Stuck in One Size Fits All Big War

02 China, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 06 Russia, Advanced Cyber/IO, Cultural Intelligence, Government, IO Deeds of War, Military, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence

berto smallGrading Gerasimov: Evaluating Russian Nonlinear War Through Modern Chinese Doctrine

Victor R. Morris in Small Wars Journal, 17 September 2015

Unrestricted war is a war that surpasses all boundaries and restrictions. It takes nonmilitary forms and military forms and creates a war on many fronts. It is the war of the future.

-Colonel Qiao Liang and Colonel Wang Xiangsui, Unrestricted War, Beijing, 1998

“Gerasimov Doctrine” contains particular similarities to the Chinese doctrine outlined in Unrestricted Warfare published in 1999, and historical roots in previous Russian doctrine. Both strategies involve using proxies, or surrogates, to not only exploit vulnerabilities in low intensity conflict, but to also prepare for future operations, which may involve high intensity conflict. Other strategies involve applying both low and high tech asymmetrical means, and also engaging in several forms of war. For example, Unrestricted Warfare describes 13 forms of “total war” and methods to consciously mix “cocktails” on the battlefield, or to employ combinations of forms of warfare in order to find innovative and effective approaches.

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Berto Jongman: Turkish Terror – The Uyghur Front — America’s Other Al Qaeda

04 Inter-State Conflict, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism, IO Deeds of War

berto smallA long useful read.

Turkish-Uyghur Terror Inc. – America’s Other Al Qaeda

EXTRACT

The alleged “struggle” by the Uyghur people in Xinjiang, referred to by the terrorists and their foreign sponsors as “East Turkistan,” consists of two essential components – a foreign harbored political front including the Washington D.C. and Munich-based World Uyghur Congress (WUC) and a militant front clearly backed by the US and NATO through intermediary groups like Turkey’s Grey Wolves.

Graham Allison: War with China Too Possible

02 China, Peace Intelligence
Graham Allison. Photo credit: Martha Stewart
Graham Allison

The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War?

In 12 of 16 past cases in which a rising power has confronted a ruling power, the result has been bloodshed.

EXTRACT

The preeminent geostrategic challenge of this era is not violent Islamic extremists or a resurgent Russia. It is the impact of China’s ascendance.

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Chuck Spinney: Saudi Arabia Over the Cliff?

08 Wild Cards, Peace Intelligence
Chuck Spinney
Chuck Spinney

There are signs of mounting discontent in the Saudi princes over the rule of King Salman and the preferences he has given to his favorite son Prince Mohammed bin Salmon( age 30), who is architect of the bloody and floundering Saudi intervention in Yemen and has been named Deputy Crown Prince, making Mohammed, at least technically, second in succession to the Saudi throne and in front of many older and more experienced contenders for the throne.

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Berto Jongman: Is Climate Change Australia’s Greatest National Security Issue?

03 Environmental Degradation, 08 Wild Cards

berto smallWhy climate change is Australia's greatest national security issue

They were given 13 threats or potential threats to consider: adverse global trends and challenges to the international system; terrorism and piracy; instability and failed or failing states; poverty, inequality, and poor governance; serious and organised crime; WMD proliferation; climate change; civil emergencies, including natural disasters and pandemics; state-led threats (such as rising powers and balance of power issues); competition for energy and resources; social cohesion; sovereignty issues (including illegal fishing and illegal entry to Australian waters and airspace) and; cyber threats.  They then had to rank them by scale of impact, geographic proximity and urgency in time, and come up with a 1-13 list in order of priority. I don't have the space here to go through the list of outcomes, but the students' calculations based on current intelligence projections indicated that climate change should be our top national security concern.

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Berto Jongman: The German Card – Secret 1949 US – Germany Deal Subordinates Germany to US Direction

08 Wild Cards, Corruption, Government

berto smallFormer German intelligence chief: In 1949 West Germany signed up to become United States vassal, NATO contemplated false-flag nuclear attack to ‘cement' deal

In Gerd-Helmut Komossa's book The German Card: The Hidden Game of the Secret Services, he claims Germany has, until now, been controlled by the United States and its allies, and was even viewed as a possible target.  . . .  The retired General details a secret pact he alleges was signed in 1949 between Germany and the US, and which will be in force for another 90 years. Komossa says the secret agreement means that all political parties in Germany are supervised by a special Washington-based body, that the country's army takes part in all NATO missions at first demand and that all German gold reserves are stored in New York.

noble gold