Journal: Haiti Net Assessment as of 11 February 2010

01 Poverty, 02 Infectious Disease, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Analysis, Collaboration Zones, Communities of Practice, InfoOps (IO), IO Multinational, IO Sense-Making, Reform, Strategy

Phi Beta Iota Net Assessment: The US Government succeeded at what it set out to do:  evacuate Americans and stabilize the US Embassy.  The US Coast Guard, specifically, distinguished itself, but it was not properly managed by the White House.  The US Government has failed terribly at the strategic level (not recognizing that massive aid is necessary in order to avoid a boat-lift exodus); at the operational level (failing to implement a regional traffic management plan, both air and sea, and a reverse TPFID; at the tactical level (failing to carpet bomb the place with water, food, and tentage; to include drive by touch and go deliveries by every available National Guard C-130); and at the technical level (failing to recognize–as we anticipated–that weather would make this disaster worse, and not ramming every Red Hat, Sea Bee, and Army engineering battalion into play, along with landing craft delivery of building supplies to each of the six open ports.  The US Government–from the White House to the CIA and DIA to USSOUTHCOM–has failed the US public by not recognizing the gravity of the Haiti situatioin; by not putting in Peace Jumpers and getting a grip in detail on the situation grid square by grid square; by failing to create a net assessment out 90-180 days so as to compellingly justify a massive peaceful preventive response.  We've blown it in Haiti.  Again.

Disease, starvation rising in Haiti (Baltimore Sun)

PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti — – Fourteen-month-old Abigail Charlot survived Haiti's cataclysmic earthquake but not its miserable aftermath. Brought into the capital's General Hospital with fever and diarrhea, Abigail literally dried up.  Sometimes they arrive too late,” said Dr. Adrien Colimon, the chief of pediatrics, shaking her head.  The second stage of Haiti's medical emergency has begun, with diarrheal illnesses, acute respiratory infections and malnutrition beginning to claim lives by the dozen.  And while the half-million people jammed into germ-breeding makeshift camps have so far been spared a contagious-disease outbreak, health officials fear epidemics. They are rushing to vaccinate 530,000 children against measles, diphtheria, tetanus and whooping cough.

Rain pours new misery on quake-struck Haiti (Reuters)

PORT-AU-PRINCE (Reuters) – Rain drenched quake survivors in the tent camps of the Haitian capital on Thursday, a warning of fresh misery to come for the 1 million homeless living in the street one month after the devastating earthquake.

Haiti offers conflicting counts on number of quake deaths (Boston Globe)

TITANYEN, Haiti – Haiti issued wildly conflicting death tolls for the Jan. 12 earthquake yesterday, adding to the confusion about how many people died – and to suspicion that nobody really knows.  A day after Marie-Laurence Jocelyn Lassegue, communications minister, raised the official death toll to 230,000, her office put out a statement quoting President Rene Preval as saying the government had hastily buried 270,000 bodies following the earthquake. A press officer withdrew the statement, saying there was an error, but reissued it within minutes. Later yesterday, the ministry said that because of a typo, the number should have read 170,000.

A System Designed to Fail Haitians (Huffington Post)

Conditions in Haiti remain unbearable for many. Nearly a month after the quake, there is still a shortage of basic necessities, including food, water, and shelter. The potential death toll is staggering and there is a shortage of medical staff to deal with the injured. There is no way to know what other difficulties or particular risks might face some Haitians who are returned. While it may be no surprise that some Haitians have opted to flee by boat, what may come as a surprise to some is the U.S. policy for dealing with those who do.

Journal: Haiti Rolling Directory from 12 January 2010

Journal: Human Terrain Team (HTT)–Drama Part III

02 Diplomacy, 05 Civil War, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Cultural Intelligence, Ethics, Methods & Process, Military, Peace Intelligence

John Stanton Blog

New Details Emerge in Salomi Hostage Case:  High Drama in HTS

by John Stanton

Observers indicate that two individuals in HTS leadership positions on the ground in Iraq—Lieutenant Colonel Byrd (Program Management Office – FWD)  and Michael Goains, GG-15 (Theater Coordination Element) had direct knowledge of Issa Salomi's prior forays outside Camp Liberty/Victory Base Complex in Iraq unaccompanied by his teammates (team designation IZ-02,) or US military personnel. Salomi was apparently taken by an Iraqi insurgent group in January 2010 and a video of him recently appeared in global media outlets in February 2010.

Observers have also pointed out that Salomi is not, in fact, a contractor but is instead a temporary US Army Civilian employee. In 2009, HTS reverted to a government program and contractors were forced to choose between leaving or converting to US government civilian status.

“There is so much drama within the HTS program right now that it is unbelievable. Many, many people are being fired, rearranged and moved around due to management incompetence and personality problems,” said observers. “The amount of money being squandered is ridiculous.”

Continue reading “Journal: Human Terrain Team (HTT)–Drama Part III”

Journal: Lockheed Mark to Market Pentagon Style

03 Economy, 10 Security
Chuck Spinney

“Mark to Market” is (or was?) an accounting standard  that required financial institutions to value their assets at their current market value.  Thus a stock portfolio would be valued at an amount determined by the stock market, if the stock holder sold all his assets in that market.

Last Spring, when the government was contemplating its plan to rescue the big banks, it settled on the idea of using taxpayer money to purchase or guarantee the so-called toxic assets of the large “investment” banks and their insurers (e.g., collateralized debt obligations and credit default swaps).  The banks lobbied furiously against the mark to market rule, because the toxic assets could not be sold in a market that was frozen, and under the rule, they would be valued a fraction (somewhere between 0% and 60%) of their original purchase prices.  Under mark to market, the banks would take a bath or even become insolvent.  So, they concocted a new concept of “fair value,” which came close to reimbursing them at cost, thus implying the capitalist market was inherently unfair.  The Federal Government ended up guaranteeing the debt at taxpayer expense, thus securing an American economic system that guarantees private profits at the expense of public losses for the privileged entities on Wall Street.

But don't blame the banks for this kind of system.  They are only doing what is natural when one is working with the best government money can buy.  In fact, the American political economy has many ways of guaranteeing private profits with public subsidies of what should be private losses.

Continue reading “Journal: Lockheed Mark to Market Pentagon Style”

Journal: Haiti Update 4 February 2010

02 Diplomacy, 06 Family, 07 Health, 08 Immigration, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Justice, 10 Security, 11 Society
Aerial View of Destroyed Buildings

Adequacy of Aid.  Foreign Food Aid Trickles Into Haiti's Black Market (New York Times, 4 Feb 10). PORT-AU-PRINCE (Reuters) – Blocks from where U.S. and U.N. soldiers distribute sacks of rice to Haitian women in earthquake-shattered Port-au-Prince, street vendors are openly selling rice by the cup from bags stamped with U.S. flags.   . . .   For two weeks, the World Food Program will give out only rice, deciding later whether to add other staples like beans, cooking oil and salt.  Phi Beta Iota: This is nuts.  We should be carpet bombing this place with ALL possible survival ratios to the point that no one has to buy anything for the next 90 days.  Idiocy and lack of imagination.

Adequacy of Aid:  Already Bad Health Situation in Haiti Has Gotten Worse – It’s Aftershock (Health Kut 29 Jan 10). For years Haiti has had to deal with inferior medical care and various health concerns. The earthquake that has recently impacted the country has made conditions worse for the country and is likely to end up causing a new series of medical concerns. These concerns are ones that could end up killing hundreds of thousands of people who didn’t die right after the earthquake.  Phi Beta Iota: We agree with this, and forecast it within a week of the disaster that the US has now turned into a catastrophe.

Adequacy of Aid.  Wickham: A short attention span won't save Haiti (Towntalk Canada, 2 Feb 10). To help Haiti recover, the U.S. has to help it rebuild Port-au-Prince, the capital city that was leveled by the 7.0 magnitude earthquake. The U.S. also has to help rebuild the country's shattered economy. “In 30 seconds Haiti lost 60 percent of its GDP,” Haitian Prime Minister Jean-Max Bellerive said during the day-long meeting.  It's estimated it will take at least 10 years and $3 billion to rebuild Haiti – and probably a lot more time and money to help shed its identity as the American hemisphere's poorest county.  Phi Beta Iota: Haiti is already old news and back-burner, We’re simply not serious, if we were, USG would mandate a pooling of all donations, publish a day to day spending bill, and show planned spending for public comment 90 days out.

Continue reading “Journal: Haiti Update 4 February 2010”

Journal: NIGHTWATCH Extract France & Citizenship

08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Communities of Practice, Cultural Intelligence

NIGHTWATCH HOME.  France: For the record. Prime Minister Francois Fillon said on 3 February he would sign a decree barring a Moroccan man from receiving French citizenship because of his insistence that his French wife conform to the strictest Islamic practices. Fillon said that the man “has no place in our country.”

The French authorities describe the case as being about a religious radical who requires his wife to wear the burqa (the head to toe covering with eye slots); he insists the separation of men and women in his own home, and he refuses to shake the hands of women,” Fillon said.

On 2 February, Immigration Minister Eric Besson said that during checks into the man's application for citizenship, he explicitly stated that he would never allow his wife to leave the house without wearing a full veil and that he believed a woman is “an inferior being.”

Earlier this week a parliamentary panel called for a law to ban the wearing of full Islamic veils in public institutions such as schools, hospitals and transport. “It's French law,” Fillon told Europe 1 radio. “The Code Civile has for a very long time provided that naturalization could be refused to someone who does not respect the values of the French Republic.

A Reader could conclude that political correctness in France favors the Republic’s interests over the individual’s right of self expression and even personal religious observance. In this case, the Republic places respect for women and women’s rights over male dominance prescribed in religious texts. This is a study in democracy.

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Journal: New QDR–Pentagon Goes Intellectually AWOL

10 Security, Analysis, Budgets & Funding, Ethics, Military, Reform, Strategy, Threats
Chuck Spinney

The New QDR

The Pentagon Goes Intellectually AWOL

By FRANKLIN C. SPINNEY

Monday, February 1, 2010, was a day that should live in budgetary infamy. The Defense Department released its Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) and its accompanying Fiscal Year 2011 budget request, which is the first year of the Fiscal Year 2011-2015 five year plan (2011-2015 FYDP). These documents are available on the internet and can be downloaded in PDF format here: QDR and the FY 2011 budget.

Even by the dismal intellectual standards of Pentagon bureaucracy, the QDR and the FY 2011 budget, taken together, establish a new standard of analytical vacuity, psychological denial, and just plane meaningless drivel. I will keep this short by using just one important case to prove my allegation. Judge for yourself if it is necessary and sufficient to make the point.

. . . . . . .

The chaos in the accounting system provides the intellectual “grease” to lubricate the engine driving narrow bureaucratic agendas that are causing the force structure meltdown. Senior decision makers can not possibly understand the trade offs they are really making when they put together a budget, assuming they wanted to, which is also in doubt.

Full Story Online

Phi Beta Iota: The Pentagon is only as competent as the combination of three factors:

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Journal: Politics of Fear–Spending on National Insecurity

10 Security, Analysis, Budgets & Funding, Collective Intelligence, Military, Peace Intelligence, Reform, Threats
Chuck Spinney

Answer: It all depends on what you think should be included, but once this is clear — this spending will be be exempt from any cutbacks needed to reduce the deficit.

The Table prepared by Winslow Wheeler, Director, Straus Military Reform Project within the Center for Defense Information.

Chuck

Winslow Wheeler, Straus Military Reform Project.

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