Only a few weeks ago, most western observers had written off Mohamed Morsi, the new President of Egypt and a moderate member of the Muslim Brotherhood, as a stooge who would dance to the tune of the military rulers of the Egyptian deep state. That view is rapidly changing. Morsi quickly consolidated power by forcing “deep-state” generals to retire (with dignity) and replacing them military leaders of a more reformist nature and less likely to lapdogs of the US and Israel. Thus Morsi seems to have out maneuvered the deep state apparat in a similar but even quicker way than Prime Minister Recep Erdogan did in Turkey. Also, like Erdogan in Turkey, he is flexing his nation’s regional diplomatic muscle in independent and sometimes surprising ways. Big things may be happening in Egypt and the Middle East, especially in the area of foreign policy, as only a few writers have noted (see for example, Esam Al-Almin, Patrick Seale, editorialin Al-Arahm). Attached is another analysis in this vein: Immanuel Wallerstein, describes why he thinks Morsi might be on the cutting edge of profound changes shaping the Middle East. If Wallerstein is correct in his sense that the focus of regional geopolitics is about to shift back to the Palestinian Question, the US is will be caught flatfooted again and may be again on the wrong side of history, while Israel’s isolation is likely to increase.
Chuck Spinney
Gaeta, Italia
From Syria to Palestine: A Shift in Focus?
Immanuel Wallerstein
Agence Global, 01 Sep 2012
If we analyze the geopolitics of the Middle East, what should be the principal focus? There is little agreement on an answer, and yet it is the key question.
The Israeli government has been sedulously and constantly trying to make the focus be Iran. This has been considered by most observers as an effort to divert attention from Israel's unwillingness to pursue serious negotiations with the Palestinians.
In any case, this Israeli effort has failed, spectacularly. Netanyahu has been unable to get the U.S. government to commit to supporting an Israeli raid on Iran. And Iran's ability to gather most of the non-Western world — including Pakistan, India, China, Palestine, and U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon — to the meeting of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) in Tehran underlines the political impossibility of the Israeli wish to concentrate attention on Iran.
For the past year, the center of attention has become Syria, not Iran, even if there is a link between the two. It has been primarily Saudi Arabia and Qatar that have struggled, with considerable success, to make Syria the focus of attention. Some observers feel this has been an effort to divert attention from Saudi Arabia's internal problems and anti-Shi'a oppression in the Gulf states, especially Bahrain.
This Syria-focus however is about to come to an end, for two reasons.
Continue reading “Chuck Spinney: Egypt Emergent, Syria Sidelined, Palestian Justice Ready or Not….”
