Journal: Israel, Neo-Cons, Big Oil, Iraq, & Green

05 Energy, 08 Wild Cards, Analysis, Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, Earth Intelligence, Ethics, Government, Military, Strategy
Chuck Spinney

In my last blaster (here), I raised a question of whether the Israelis were trying to hijack the Green Lobby or whether they were ready for the rubber room.  This was made in response to a report by Jonathan Cook that contended Israel was greenwashing war on terror.  It turns out that I may have phrased this question in naive, simplistic terms, if my good friend Pierre Sprey (a justifiably well known weapons analyst, mathematician, and recording entrepreneur) is correct, Israel's motives for  trying to hijack the Green Lobby can be viewed in a larger, longer range context.  Below is his most interesting analysis of Israel's motives for greenwashing the war on terror: Chuck

—–[Comment by Pierre Sprey]—–

I totally agree that the currently faddish alternate energy sources are ludicrously uneconomical and, for the most part, environmentally harmful. The only alternate source that could almost completely supplant oil and that actually makes economic and environmental sense, natural gas, is currently among the most unfashionable.

Nevertheless, there's an important larger perspective to Israel's dead serious push to raise huge amounts of capital (guess where?) to produce non-oil based energy from trendy green sources in large enough quantities to reduce worldwide oil demand significantly.

That perspective is simple: unbeknownst to most, the absolute highest priority objective of Israeli foreign policy, from 1949 to today, has been to break the Seven Sisters oil cartel's stranglehold on world oil production in order to collapse the world price of oil. From Israel's point of view, that's a perfectly rational strategic objective–and, almost certainly, the only Israeli objective I know of that would be a major benefit to the world.

Continue reading “Journal: Israel, Neo-Cons, Big Oil, Iraq, & Green”

Reference: Intelligence Support to Small Arms Acquisition–A Brilliant Indictment

10 Security, Analysis, DoD, Methods & Process, Military, Reform, Strategy, Threats, Tools
Full Paper Online

Marcus Aurelius:

(1) US consciously changed from standard main battle rifles firing “full military cartridges” (ie., M-14/7.62×51 NATO, M-1 Garand/cal. 30 M-1) to assault rifles (AR-15, M-16, Stoner System) in the 1960s as we attempted to optimize for short-range engagements in the constrained mountainous/jungle environments of Southeast Asia.  At the time, our primary allies were slight of physical stature;

(2) Concurrently, training and engagement doctrine shifted from carefully aimed individual shots to volume of fire (bursts of various numbers of rounds, the “spray and slay” technique) and various “point and shoot” techniques such as “instinctive aiming,” “quick kill,” etc.;

(3) Ammunition followed suit and emphasis in terminal ballistics shifted from accuracy and kinetic energy to volume of fire and bullet yaw/fragmentation; (4) I attach the SAMS paper by MAJ Ehrhart cited in the article.)

Phi Beta Iota: This one paper is a superb indictment of US DoD leadership from the Secretary of Defense, who claims he does not do “maintenance” but is in fact overseeing “business as usual” for Lockheed et all, to the Undersecretaries (Intelligence does not do intelligence support to acquisitions; Acquisitions could care less about inexpensive individual systems; and Policy simply does not have a clue) to the service leaders responsible for training, equipping, and organizing the forces to be sent into battle by the Combatant Commanders.  The Strategic Generalizations developed by the Marine Corps Intelligence Center in 1989 remain valid–and ignored.

Related Media Article:

April 2, 2010

Army Report: GIs Outgunned In Afghanistan

By David Wood

American troops are often outgunned by Afghan insurgents because they lack the precision weapons, deadly rounds, and training needed to kill the enemy in the long-distance firefights common in Afghanistan's rugged terrain, according to an internal Army study.

Politics Daily Full Story Online

Reference: Intelligence Reform Death Notice

10 Security, Analysis, Budgets & Funding, Commissions, DHS, Director of National Intelligence et al (IC), DoD, Ethics, Government, Hill Letters & Testimony, Law Enforcement, Legislation, Methods & Process, Military, Peace Intelligence, Policy, Reform, Strategy, Threats
Full Document Online

Phi Beta Iota: With a tip of the hat to Marcus Aurelius, this document is provided for information.  On balance it is rich with insights that are not available elsewhere and consequently must be very highly regarded as a baseline for where US intelligence reform (and US intelligence) are today: dead, with a $75 billion a year casket that shows no signs of atrophy.  Below are summary extracts both positive and negative.

Continue reading “Reference: Intelligence Reform Death Notice”

Worth A Look: Posted from the Past Including Jack Davis on Leadership in Intelligence Analysis

Analysis, Reform

1993 War and Peace in the Age of Information–Superintendent’s Guest Lecture, Naval Postgraduate School (NPS)

1994 ACCESS: The Theory and Practice of Competitor Intelligence (Journal of the Association for Global Strategic Information, July 1994)

1994 Private Enterprise Intelligence: It’s Potential Contribution to National Security (Canada, 29 October 1994)

1995 Open Sources and the Virtual Intelligence Community (with MC&G Emphasis)

1995 The Global Information Explosion: A Threat to National Security? (National Defense University, 16 May 1995)

1997 VIRTUAL INTELLIGENCE: Conflict Avoidance and Resolution Through Information Peacekeeping (Author’s Final, 1 April 1997)

1998 Open Source Intelligence Overview (Australia)

1999 Relevant Information and All-Source Analysis: The Emerging Revolution

1999 Virtual Intelligence: Conflict Avoidance and Resolution through Information Peacekeeping (Journal of Conflict Resolution, Spring 1999)

2002  Reference: Jack Davis Leadership in Intelligence Analysis (August 2002)

Sherman Kent Occasional Papers by Jack Davis

Improving CIA Analytic Performance: Strategic Warning

Improving CIA Analytic Performance: Analysts and the Policymaking Process

Improving CIA Analytic Performance: DI Analytic Priorities

Sherman Kent and the Profession of Intelligence Analysis

Strategic Warning: If Surprise is Inevitable, What Role for Analysis?

Tensions in Analyst-Policymaker Relations: Opinions, Facts, and Evidence

Sherman Kent’s Final Thoughts on Analyst-Policymaker Relations

Search: jack davis analytical support for peace

Analysis, Searches

This really should be two searches.

Seaching for Jack Davis yields:

Who’s Who in Public Intelligence: Jack Davis

Search: jack davis and his collected memoranda o

Search: The Future of OSINT [is M4IS2-Multinational]

Graphic: The UN and the Eight Tribes of Intelligence

Searching for analytic support for peace yields:

Journal: Haiti–Ready for a Rapid-Response Open-Source-Intelligence-Driven Inter-Agency Multinational Multifunctional Stabilization & Reconstruction Mission…

Search: United Nations Intelligence Training

Search: Multinational Engagement (Intelligence)

Search: Strategic Analytic Model

Journal: Strategy versus Secrecy

1998 Open Source Intelligence: Private Sector Capabiltiies to Support DoD Policy, Acquisition, and Operations

1997 Creating a “Bare Bones” Capability for Open Source Support to Defense Intelligence Analysis

1990 Expeditionary Environment Analytic Model

Search: four levels intelligence analysis

Journal: Intelligence & Innovation Support to Strategy, Planning, Programming, Budgeting, & Acquisition

Reference: Earth Intelligence Network Concept for Execution

Book: INTELLIGENCE FOR EARTH–Finished Less Fwd/Afwd

Journal: DoD Mind-Set Time Lags Most Fascinating

Looking for Anomalies in All the Wrong Places

Continue reading “Search: jack davis analytical support for peace”