Journal: ClimateGate, Copenhagen, Integrity

Earth Intelligence
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Climategate: Science Is Dying  (WS)

The East Anglians' mistreatment of scientists who challenged global warming's claims—plotting to shut them up and shut down their ability to publish—evokes the attempt to silence Galileo. The exchanges between Penn State's Michael Mann and East Anglia CRU director Phil Jones sound like Father Firenzuola, the Commissary-General of the Inquisition.

ClimateGate as Rorschach Test

The other side, meanwhile, cries “Remember the Pentagon Papers!” while also positing that the C.R.U. “hack” may have in fact been the work of an internal whistleblower who was distraught that scientific fraud was being perpetrated.

Comedy Central Scoops Network News on Climate-Gate Scandal

“Poor Al Gore. Global warming completely debunked via the very Internet you invented. Oh, oh, the irony!”  ….[Instead of reporting on ClimateGate, “the networks reported on pro-golfer Tiger Woods' ‘minor' car accident at least 37 times. They also found time to report on an orphaned Moose and the meal selection at the president’s State Dinner.”

Glenn Beck: What Separates Climate-Gate From Other Conspiracies?

BECK: Good. Tell me, Climate-gate: Give me the one thing that you — as you're looking into it, you go, “Wow, people should pay attention to this one thing.”

GOLDBERG: Well, you know, the news that so many people are scamming and conniving behind the scenes to exploit global warming hysteria is not shocking. It's the evidence. Very rarely do you have a conspiracy where there's actual evidence like this.

BECK: A hundred and forty-five trillion is what is going to cost, their solution, trillions of dollars at stake. So, somebody is making money off of this.

GOLDBERG: That's right and for years, anyone who criticized global warming was accused of being bought and paid for by the polluting industry and whatnot, while these enlightened, objective scientists, you know, were beyond reproach.   It was like Bill Murray in “Ghostbusters” who says, “Back off, man. I'm a scientist.”

Phi Beta Iota: Copenhagen will either “cover up” the fraud and failure of the science put forward by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which we judge to be 60% likely, or–if Brazil, China, India, and other decide to adapt very rapidly to this opportunity, it could put the IPCC out of business and instead call on the United Nations to endorse, and private donors such as Sir Richard Branson to fund, a World Brain Institute with an embedded global brain.  At the link below is a two-page point paper we drafted  for speculative reflective purposes.  It may be freely distributed under Creative Commons copyright.  The truth at any cost lessens all other costs–this is not rocket science, just integrity.

UN World Brain Institute and Global Game Talking Points (2 pages)

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Search: Intelligence Community Wheel

Balance, Citizen-Centered, Languages-Translation, Multinational Plus, Reform, Searches, Strategy-Holistic Coherence
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Traditional Intelligence Wheel
Traditional Intelligence Wheel

To the left is the traditional intelligence wheel, consisting of the 16 or so (there are other elements not listed) entities that in theory comprise the predominantly secret U.S. Intelligence Community.

Below is the emergent intelligence wheel that harnesses all human minds in relation to all information all the time.  We still need spies and secrecy but in moderation.

Global Intelligence Wheel
Global Intelligence Wheel

Although this version is centered on the President, it can just as easily be centered on any Cabinet Department down to the branch level, any Congressional jurisdiction, any private sector domain of interest.

See also:

Search: Seven Tribes (now Eight Tribes)

Search: The Future of OSINT

Journal: Design Thinking for Government

Review: The Design of Business–Why Design Thinking is the Next Competitive Advantage

Journal: Notes on David Kilcullen to US IC

05 Civil War, 09 Terrorism
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David Kincullen
David Kincullen

David Kilcullen spoke to NCTC and ODNI on Dec 2, unclassified, and spent a good deal of time talking about good and bad ways to measure counter-insurgency.

His remarks are at a level below the “global police action against the jihadist criminal conspiracy” (how Bacevich characterized on morning NPR interview, Dec 3).

Kilcullen is now with the Crumpton Group.

His book  The Accidental Guerrilla–Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One remains his most easily accessible offering.

Some general points on counter-insurgency:

  • It is “an adaptation struggle”
  • Governments almost always win under two conditions: if they negotiate to end it, and if they are fighting to take back their own country (not in occupation/colony).  (He was using Correlates of War data from Univ. of Indiana.)
  • Insurgency is actually stronger in many ways when smaller, and the remnant is really hard to stop.  He was decorated for fighting 400 Malay insurgents 30 years after the war was supposedly won.
  • The ratio of troops to population that is in the manual is based on an irrelevant figure from an old Rand study.  He tried to keep it out of the manual.  He says you can do quite well with fewer troops.  In Vietnam, we exceeded this ‘standards’ and still lost.

Some bad measures

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Reference: Measuring Success and Failure in Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism–US Government Metrics of the Global War on Terror (GWOT)

08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism, 10 Security, 11 Society, Academia, Analysis, Articles & Chapters, Government, Law Enforcement, Methods & Process, Peace Intelligence
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cover schmid
Full Chapter Online

Alex P. Schmid, one of a handful of trully expert scholars in the field of terrorism and counter-terrorism, and his colleague Rashmi Singh, have created a summary that is devasting on multiple fronts.  The “Global War on Terror” or GWOT has lasted longer than World Wars I and II combined; the money expended (the authors do not include the military costs of occupying Afghanistan and Iraq) has been enormous, and in all that time, no one has defined the metrics by which to measure the endeavor.  The chapter in included in  After the War on Terror: Regional and Multilateral Perspectives on Counter-TerrorismStrategy

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Search: Strategic Analytic Model

Search: QDR “four forces after next”

Journal: PowerShift–Infrastructure Independence

Collaboration Zones, Communities of Practice, Ethics, Key Players, Policies
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Full Story Online
Full Story Online

Power Shift:  New battery could change world, one house at a time

The prize is the culmination of 10 years of research and testing — a new generation of deep-storage battery that's small enough, and safe enough, to sit in your basement and power your home.

It promises to nudge the world to a paradigm shift as big as the switch from centralized mainframe computers in the 1980s to personal laptops. But this time the mainframe is America's antiquated electrical grid; and the switch is to personal power stations in millions of individual homes.

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