Chuck Spinney: Into the Sahel Rabbit Hole….

Corruption, Government, Idiocy, Ineptitude, Military
Chuck Spinney
Chuck Spinney

This is a very important report by highly regarded scholar of the region, especially Algeria.

Call to arms will bring no peace to Sahel

Region cannot be returned to Mali’s control militarily, says Hugh Roberts

By Hugh Roberts, Financial Times, January 24, 2013 6:03 pm

The writer is Edward Keller Professor of North African and Middle Eastern History at Tufts University

David Cameron’s vision of decades of global counter-terrorist struggle in north Africa sounded like the promise of doom to anyone who cares about the region. The Sahel’s terrorism problem dates back no further than 2003 – the west’s global war on terror gave birth to it; the west’s part in the destruction of Muammer Gaddafi’s Libya aggravated it; and France’s decision to pursue another war in Mali is expanding it.

In 2003, two drastic changes occurred. Washington launched its Pan-Sahel Initiative, soon renamed the Trans-Saharan Counterterrorism Initiative; and a branch of the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (known by its French acronym of GSPC) migrated from north-eastern Algeria to the far south of the Algerian Sahara, announcing its arrival with the abduction of 32 European tourists that year.

These developments were linked. In its drive to involve itself in the Sahel, where it blithely trespassed on France’s traditional sphere of influence, the Pentagon massively hyped the terrorist threat. But what really made the PSI feasible was Algeria’s involvement. Algiers had seized on the terrorist attacks of September 11 2001 to align itself with US President George W. Bush’s war on terror. One reason for this was to avoid being marked for destruction, like Iraq. But the country also saw an opportunity to resume normal relations with its western partners, following a French-led boycott begun after a 1994 terrorist attack on an Air France flight.

Read full article.

Chuck Spinney: Why we lose wars at ever increasing cost…

Corruption, Government, Idiocy, Ineptitude, Military
Chuck Spinney
Chuck Spinney

Don't hold your breath: One impediment to understanding what works and what does not work in war is an out-of-control secrecy system that clogs up DoD's own OODA loops with over-classified needlessly compartmented information.  The barriers within this system work to stretch out our own decision cycles.  But, as the American strategist Colonel John Boyd showed, one of the central objectives implicit in any military strategy is to stretch out the OODA loops governing your adversary's decision cycles.  Operating inside your adversary's OODA loops enables you to disconnect his decisions from the reality and collapse him into confusion and disorder (short explanation here, longer explanations here).  So, stretching out your own loops is, ipso facto, really loopy. 

 
The attached report by Scott Shane may seem hilarious, but it is really an outward symptom of the much deeper strategic problem posed by the compartmented nature of this self-inflicted wound.  Think about the mentality that fuels a predilection to burn books that reveal harmless chickenshit details — like, for example, the widely used nickname for National Security Agency and the real name of Baghram Air Force base, a name that became well known to the entire world during the Soviet Union's aborted occupation, or the reclassification of an unclassified citation for a bronze star medal.  Is this the behaviour of decision making system that is tightly connected to its own environment and is trying to improve its performance by learning from experience?  To ask this question is to answer it.
 
Of course, understanding how we disconnected our own decisions from reality in hot wars does not matter: The epistemological essence of a mindset ruled by the secret compartments of the military-technical revolution is that the future will be different from the past.  We are leaving the hot war in Afghanistan and an intensification of the secrecy system will be necessary to extract ever larger amounts of taxpayer dollars to fund the super-secret deep strike ‘precision' weapons which lie at the heart of the Obama's strategic pivot to a new cold war focused on China.

Pentagon Reverses Some of Its Censoring of a War Book

By SCOTT SHANE
New York Times, January 25, 2013

WASHINGTON — In an illustration of the government’s changeable ideas of what should be secret, Pentagon censors have decided that nearly half of more than 400 passages deleted from an Afghan war memoir can be printed without damaging national security.

Penguin: Open-Ended Global War on “Terrorism”

08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Ineptitude, Military, Officers Call
Who, Me?
Who, Me?

Cannot help but remember the graphic on terrorism as a boil.

Haven't We Seen This Movie Before?

The Open-Ended Global War on Terrorism

PEPE ESCOBAR

Asia Times, 23 January 2013

And the winner of the Oscar for Best Sequel of 2013 goes to… The Global War on Terror (GWOT), a Pentagon production. Abandon all hope those who thought the whole thing was over with the cinematographic snuffing out of “Geronimo”, aka Osama bin Laden, further reduced to a fleeting cameo in the torture-enabling flick Zero Dark Thirty.

Click on Image to Enlarge
Click on Image to Enlarge

It’s now official – coming from the mouth of the lion, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey, and duly posted at theAFRICOM site, the Pentagon’s weaponized African branch.

Exit “historical” al-Qaeda, holed up somewhere in the Waziristans, in the Pakistani tribal areas; enter al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). In Dempsey’s words, AQIM “is a threat not only to the country of Mali, but the region, and if… left unaddressed, could in fact become a global threat.”

With Mali now elevated to the status of a “threat” to the whole  world, GWOT is proven to be really open-ended. The Pentagon doesn’t do irony; when, in the early 2000s, armchair warriors coined the expression “The Long War”, they really meant it.

Even under President Obama 2.0′s “leading from behind” doctrine, the Pentagon is unmistakably gunning for war in Mali – and not only of the shadow variety. [1] General Carter Ham, AFRICOM’s commander, already operates under the assumption Islamists in Mali will “attack American interests”.

Thus, the first 100 US military “advisers” are being sent to Niger, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Senegal, Togo and Ghana – the six member-nations of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) that will compose an African army tasked (by the United Nations) to reconquer (invade?) the parts of Mali under the Islamist sway of AQIM, its splinter group MUJAO and the Ansar ed-Dine militia. This African mini-army, of course, is paid for by the West.

Students of the Vietnam War will be the first to note that sending “advisers” was the first step of the subsequent quagmire. And on a definitely un-Pentagonese ironic aside, the US over these past few years did train Malian troops. A lot of them duly deserted. As for the lavishly, Fort Benning-trained Captain Amadou Haya Sanogo, not only did he lead a military coup against an elected Mali government but also created the conditions for the rise of the Islamists.

Continue reading “Penguin: Open-Ended Global War on “Terrorism””

US Jewish Leaders Apologize for USS Liberty, Promise Not to Meddle in US Foreign Policy Anymore (UPDATED with New LBJ Cover Story That Exonerates Zionists?)

07 Other Atrocities, 10 Security, 11 Society, Civil Society, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Military, Offbeat Fun, Officers Call
Click on Image to Enlarge
Click on Image to Enlarge

UPDATED 30 Jan 2013: Mini-Me: LBJ Behind USS Liberty? Re-Evaluating What Can Be Known

Jewish Leaders Meet Obama, Apologize for USS Liberty

BNN Senior Producer Karl Reich, 23 January 2013

Washington (BNN) – Leaders of several major American Jewish organizations met today with President Barack Obama and his national security team, offering abject apologies for the Israeli covert attack on the USS Liberty that left 34 Killed in Action (KIA), and 171 Wounded in Action (WIA).

For over 30 years the US Government has been a co-conspirator with Israel and its Zionist supporters in the US, whose campaign contributions to US Senators and Representatives were always accompanied by a note, “Forget about the USS Liberty — it was just business.”

The participants refused to discuss the specifics of the meeting. The groups at the hour-long session included the Anti-Defamation League, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), the Conference of Major American Jewish Organizations and the American Jewish Committee.

Continue reading “US Jewish Leaders Apologize for USS Liberty, Promise Not to Meddle in US Foreign Policy Anymore (UPDATED with New LBJ Cover Story That Exonerates Zionists?)”

Winslow Wheeler: The China Pivot and Air-Sea Battle — Institutionalized Idiocy and the Moral-Intellectual Death of Andy Marshall

Corruption, Government, Military
Winslow Wheeler
Winslow Wheeler

The Asia Pivot–with “Air-Sea Battle” deeply embedded into it–has become the accepted wisdom in Washington for America's post-Afghanistan national security strategy.  Is it affordable?  Is it competent? Is it even a strategy?

It also presents a useful test for SecDef-designate Hagel's ability to separate the wheat from the chaff regarding defense issues.  While Hagel has already shredded–to a large extent–his own reputation as someone willing to stand up to Pavlovian conventional wisdom, he will have another chance in his confirmation hearings next week to show he is not just another political hack.

National Security

Powering the Pacific “Pivot” With Leon and Chuck

By Jan. 23, 2013

It's old, and likely thoroughly forgotten now, but last summer the Washington Post ran an excellent article on the U.S. military‘s “pivot” toward Asia, its origins, and its budget implications. It presented some meaningful background on where the pivot came from, and how it so quickly became dogma in Washington as the decade-long ground wars receded in the national rear-view mirror.

Beyond that, Greg Jaffe's article last August offers a good explanation for Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta‘s hysteria about defense budget cuts, and a useful criterion to assess Panetta's nominated replacement, former Senator Chuck Hagel.

Continue reading “Winslow Wheeler: The China Pivot and Air-Sea Battle — Institutionalized Idiocy and the Moral-Intellectual Death of Andy Marshall”

Marcus Aurelius: Brookings 2013 Briefing Books for the President — Leans Left, Lacks Substance

02 Diplomacy, 03 Economy, 10 Security, 11 Society, Government, Ineptitude, IO Impotency, Military, Non-Governmental
Marcus Aurelius
Marcus Aurelius

There is no “out of the box” thinking here, just dabbling on the margins.

Phi Beta Iota:  We agree with Brother Marcus.  This was a very disappointing document and not at all presidential in utility.  There is no executive summary, no bullet points, no explicatory graphics, and no budgetary perspective (means to ways to ends).  The individual memorandums are too long, too bland, and not imaginative in the least.  Especially disappointing were the two pieces directly oriented on defense, the first by Peter Singer on drones, the second by Michael O'Hanlon on achieving defense budget efficiencies on the margins.  The individual authors are first rate across the board, but the editorial function and the leadership function are both absent from this work.  Singer plays it safe and calls for the establishment of protocols on drone use, avoiding the moral disengagement and extrajudicial assassination concepts that make the CIA drone program a crime against humanity; O Hanlon simply loses his excellent mind completely, and babbles about changes on the margin.  Below the line is the complete Table of Contents for the Brookings document, and relevant alternative perspectives by Robert Steele.

Continue reading “Marcus Aurelius: Brookings 2013 Briefing Books for the President — Leans Left, Lacks Substance”

NIGHTWATCH: Weak Signal from Algeria – Anti-US Forces Up Their Game

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Justice, 09 Terrorism, 10 Security, 11 Society, Civil Society, Government, Military
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Click on Image to Enlarge

Algeria-US: Update. A senior Algerian official said that one of the terrorists captured at the In Amenas gas plant said under interrogation that some of the dead Egyptian terrorists also participated in the attack on the US Consulate in Benghazi last year. Three terrorists are in custody.

The official said the terrorists staged in southern Libya with arms purchased in Tripoli, Libya. He also said, “This is the result of the Arab Spring…. I hope the Americans are conscious of this.”

Comment: There is no way to corroborate the detainee's statement. What is worth noting is that the Algerian official's statements help explain why the Algerians might have had few qualms about assaulting the terrorists, despite the risk to foreigners. The Algerian government expects more attacks and the outcome will probably not be much different for foreigners.

The government has opposed US policy in the Arab world, especially the overthrow of the Qadhafi government. Some officials are making it very clear they hold American policy ultimately responsible for the gas plant attack in Algeria, the invasion of northern Mali by Islamist fighters and future attacks to come.

Americans working in Algeria are at increased risk from terrorists. Moreover, their safety does not appear to be a major factor in government planning for rescue operations.

Continue reading “NIGHTWATCH: Weak Signal from Algeria – Anti-US Forces Up Their Game”

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