08 Wild Cards – Page 146 – Public Intelligence Blog

2011/05/092011/05/09

NATO Says AF Insurgency Weakened–Really?

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, IO Impotency, Military, Peace Intelligence

It is amazing that nowhere in this article does it mention the media coup that the Taliban scored. I also am not sure that the information released by NATO is accurate. If so, it contradicts previously reported Taliban strength levels. Nor does NATO address the recent high profile security breaches…..

NATO says insurgency weakened

By PATRICK QUINN

The Associated Press

KABUL, Afghanistan — NATO said Monday that it has significantly weakened the Taliban insurgency, capturing or killing thousands of militants in Afghanistan during the past three months.

Read full article….

2011/05/082011/05/08

Cynthia McKinney is NOT Happy with NATO

02 Diplomacy, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Immigration, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Justice, 10 Security, 11 Society, Civil Society, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, IO Sense-Making, Military, Peace Intelligence

nato mckinney — Click on Image to Enlarge

Sent to me by a Libyan who hates what his country is becoming due to the racists now supported by NATO and who are in control of part of his country.

Cynthia McKinney

Nato units left 61 African migrants to die of hunger and thirst

Jack Shenker, Guardian, 8 May 2011

Boat trying to reach Lampedusa was left to drift in Mediterranean for 16 days, despite alarm being raised

Dozens of African migrants were left to die in the Mediterranean after a number of European and Nato military units apparently ignored their cries for help, the Guardian has learned.

refugees libya — Click on Image to Enlarge

A boat carrying 72 passengers, including several women, young children and political refugees, ran into trouble in late March after leaving Tripoli for the Italian island of Lampedusa. Despite alarms being raised with the Italian coastguard and the boat making contact with a military helicopter and a Nato warship, no rescue effort was attempted.

All but 11 of those on board died from thirst and hunger after their vessel was left to drift in open waters for 16 days. “Every morning we would wake up and find more bodies, which we would leave for 24 hours and then throw overboard,” said Abu Kurke, one of only nine survivors. “By the final days, we didn't know ourselves … everyone was either praying, or dying.”

Read full article….

Continue reading “Cynthia McKinney is NOT Happy with NATO”

2011/05/082011/05/08

Arturo Valenzuela Quits–US Ignoring South

01 Brazil, 07 Venezuela, 08 Wild Cards, Corruption, Government, IO Impotency, Money, Banks & Concentrated Wealth, Peace Intelligence, Policies, Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests, Strategy, Threats

The head of the U.S. State Department’s Latin American and Caribbean will resign this summer.

Arturo Valenzuela announced he will leave his post of Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs to return to Georgetown University, where he taught before his appointment by Barack Obama in 2009.

The United States currently doesn’t have ambassadors in Mexico, Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador. There are only rudimentary diplomatic relations with Cuba.

Oil, Food, Middle Class Down = Long Emergency

01 Brazil, 02 China, 03 Economy, 03 India, 04 Indonesia, 05 Energy, 06 Family, 06 Russia, 07 Venezuela, 08 Wild Cards, 11 Society, Civil Society, Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, Corruption, IO Sense-Making

D2 SCENARIO

I gave a little talk at a financial conference (Casey Research) that included the following very simple economic scenario:

Oil prices are going up (inexorably). China + Peak Oil + Financial diversification. Oil doesn't stop going up until GDP goes down. It's an inexorable force until then.
The US middle class is broken. A hollow husk unable to withstand the slightest gust. Regardless, it's the ultimate source of demand for the global economy. It's an immovable barrier.
When oil hits ~$150 a barrel the impact occurs between inexorable force and immovable barrier. The combo of higher prices at the pump and for everything else (food and other essentials) starts to crush middle class budgets and force defaults. The economy shrinks until the price of oil goes down enough to be affordable again (for those still left in the middle class).

We keep repeat the pattern above until we're in the second depression (D2). Long term low demand.

Phi Beta Iota: This is precisely why the BRICS (now including South Africa) and a new coalition, perhaps led by Cuba and Venezuela since Chile is refusing to lead, should focus on the immediate challenge of creating infinite free renewable energy–the foundation for global non-zero advances. Such a strategy would be inherently ethical, legal, citizen-centered, and non-violent as well as non-intrusive on any conceivable concept of sovereignty or indigenous privilege.

2011/05/012011/05/18

Bin Laden Show 76: Egyptian Faction Betrays BL

04 Inter-State Conflict, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism, 11 Society, Cultural Intelligence, IO Multinational, IO Sense-Making, Non-Governmental

Al Qaida: In a recent meeting, presumably in Pakistan, al Qaida's council elected Saifal Adel (Abu Saif), one of the early members of al-Qaida, as chief of the party Command of Control for the time being, sources told the Pakistani news service, The News. However, Muhammad Mustafa Yamni is likely to be made al-Qaida chief after a grand consultation. Yamni is currently residing in an African country.

Saifal Adel is an Egyptian and has served at key posts in Egypt terrorist groups. He worked with Ayman al-Zawahiri in the al-Jihad group of Egypt. Zawahiri was bin Laden's number two. The News reported that Zawahiri would continue holding his posts of al-Qaida patron, and the chief of the al-Qaida Militant Command. Zawahiri also will monitor the international contacts, a task that had been done by Saifal Adel.

The News' sources reported that Adnan al-Kashri had been placed in charge of general information affairs. Muhammad Nasir al-Washi (Abu Nasir) is now in charge of al-Qaida Africa affairs and Muhammad Adam Khan Afghani was appointed to direct Afghanistan-Waziristan affairs. Fahad al-Qava had been appointed as the Urgent Operational Commander.

Comment: The day after bin Laden's death, an Asia Times on Line analyst reported that the Saudi (bin Laden) faction and the Egyptian (Zawahiri) faction had had a falling out over leadership and policy direction. The full details of the policy split are not known, but what is known is that Zawahiri publicly supported the Pakistan Taliban in their moves to try to overthrow the government of Pakistan, under Musharraf and under the elected civilians. This included the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.

Bin Laden never associated himself with that policy. Bin Laden seems to have favored sensational attacks against Western targets over consolidating a base in Pakistan by taking over the government.

The Egyptians marginalized bin Laden. The lack of security and staff at Abbottabad – a single body guard – indicates bin Laden was a figurehead and a symbol, more than a hands-on commander. The computer disks and thumb drives, in this theory, call to mind Hitler with his war maps in the bunker in Berlin.

According to the Asia Times report, the Egyptian faction delivered the identity and movements of bin Laden's trusted courier to US intelligence and the courier was aware that he was being tracked so that he could lead US intelligence to the Abbottabad house. The courier was a key actor in an al Qaida intelligence operation to eliminate the Saudi faction and permit the Egyptians to take control.

The operation appears to have worked. The leadership selections, reported by The News, support the hypothesis of betrayal by the Egyptians. No Saudis are in senior leadership positions. Until the promotion of Abu Saif and other non-Saudis to leadership positions, the Asia Times report was just one hypothesis.

Based on statements by Zawahiri, al Qaida may be expected to help the Pakistani Taliban to try to seize control in Pakistan. For them, Pakistan is the objective, not Afghanistan.

NIGHTWATCH KGS Home

2011/05/012011/05/15

Bin Laden Show 71: Bin Laden Won (Daily Beast)

07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 11 Society, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, IO Impotency

Osama bin Laden: Why He Won

by E.J. Graff

The Daily Beast, 15 May 2011

As celebrations over Osama bin Laden's death wind down, a starker reality is emerging: the terrorist bogeyman succeeded in destroying key American values, not to mention our economy and global influence.

At long last, Osama is dead. The U.S. has finally found and killed an enemy commander who was devoted to destroying my country. Although I oppose the death penalty and feel passionately about the rule of law, about this I have no ambivalence: killing bin Laden was entirely justified.

And yet to my surprise, Bin Laden's death left me deeply sad. It has taken me until now to fully understand why: I feel profoundly grieved for my country. Had his death come nine years ago, perhaps I'd feel as relieved and even celebratory as many others. But in the ten years it took to find and kill him, bin Laden won.

Read full article…

Phi Beta Iota: We agree. Even the Arab Spring can be credited after a fashion to the intent of Osama Bin Laden, whose core enemy was the corrupt Saudi regime followed the other Middle Eastern dictators. The US has never been more than the “far enemy” but the US lost both its intelligence and its integrity in Viet-Nam and never regained them; instead, in a frenzy of ideological theatrics, the two-party tyranny and their financial patrons have engaged in a decades long orgy of self-destructive behavior not at all in the public interest.

2011/05/012011/05/14

Bin Laden Show 68: Choices & Consequences

04 Inter-State Conflict, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Justice, 10 Security, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, IO Impotency, Military

Bin Laden Black Beard words — Click on Image to Enlarge

Osama bin Laden hiding place visited by Taliban

Osama bin Laden received visits from Taliban leaders and wealthy Arab supporters while he was hiding out in a fortified compound in a Pakistani garrison town, it has emerged.

Pakistan may cut Nato's Afghan supply line after Osama bin Laden killing

Senior politicians vow to review ties to America after discord over drone attacks and assassination of al-Qaida leader

Pakistan condemns Bin Laden raid, threatens reprisals for drone strikes

Pakistan's parliament joins its intelligence chief in condemning the U.S. raid that killed Osama bin Laden and threatens to prohibit NATO convoys into Afghanistan if Washington continues its drone strikes against militants.

Phi Beta Iota: Wealthy Arab supporters? Name three. This all strains credibility–there is no way wealthy Arabs would make the trip without being detected by Saudi Arabia's paranoid and relatively effective counterintelligence cadre. The Pakistani reactions would appear to be a mix of theater for their own public, and pre-arranged steps they can take to accelerate our withdrawal from Afghanistan. There is some question as to whether Petraeus and Panetta are off the leash on drone attacks–emissaries from Pakistan on this issue did not get to the President, they were blown off face to face by Panetta who seems to think he is the “decider” on violating Pakistan's airspace and killing unknown civilians from afar. Like Tom Hayden, he has our vote for International Tribunal attention.