Category: 08 Wild Cards

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Journal: Al Qaeda, Yemen, Somalia, and USG

08 Wild Cards, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Law Enforcement, Military, Peace Intelligence
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Welcome to Qaedastan: Yemen's coming explosion will make today's problems seem tame.

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Yemen has so many dire problems that it's easy to be overwhelmed. Al Qaeda is growing in prominence, a Shiite rebellion is expanding in the north, and the threat of secession is renewed in the south. There's a brewing fight over what comes after President Ali Abdullah Saleh, age 67, who has ruled Yemen for 31 years; the country's elites are locked in a closed-door struggle to take power once he departs. Finally, and perhaps most intractably, Yemen is an environmental and resource catastrophe in the making. The country's water table is nearly depleted from years of agricultural malpractice, and its oil reserves are rapidly dwindling. This comes just when unemployment is soaring and an explosive birthrate promises only more young, jobless citizens in the coming years.

Testimony of Gregory D. Johnson, PhD Candidate, Near Eastern Studies, Princeton University, Before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee January 20, 2010

Too many problems of too severe a nature to be dealth with in isolation from one another.  “Yemen and its challenges have to be understood and dealt with as a whole.”

AQAP in Yemen and the Christmas Day Terrorist Attack  By Gregory D. Johnsen

Al Qaeda in Yemen and Somalia: A Ticking Time Bomb: Report to the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, January 21, 2010

Standard party line “prep” for invading both countries.  Most interesting tid-bit: 36 American convicts reached Yemen, ostensibly to study Arabic.  Given the number of convicts the USA produces, most jailed for marijuana possession, and in combination with the bankruptcy of the USA and the meltdown of its social and physical infrastructure, we read this in a much more catastrophic homeland manner than might be the case in the cozy ambiance of Capitol Hill.  Al Qaeda is no longer the center of gravity–domestic anger easily converted into violence is the center of gravity.

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Reference: BGen McMaster at ODNI on Afghanistan

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 08 Wild Cards, Director of National Intelligence et al (IC), DoD, Government, Memoranda, Military, Non-Governmental, Peace Intelligence

Memo corrected to remove (Ret).  BGen McMaster was promoted to his present rank on 29 June 2009 after being twice passed over (2006, 2007), presumably for having the integrity to be outspoken.  He is the author of the widely-admired book Dereliction of Duty: Johnson, McNamara, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Lies That Led to Vietnam.

Nine key factors are examined by BGen McMaster in his talk to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI).  Answers question on why we were so unprepared.  Final paragraph of trip report:

Can’t get much from a database and IT networks, but contractors keep pushing and we keep buying.   But what really need is experts from anywhere, context, and also need to ask the soldiers!  Make Phebe Marr a general!  Also pay attention to: Charles Tripp, R. Kadeiri, Sarah Chayes, Barnett R. Rubin and Ahmed Rashid, Michael Howard, Frontline piece on Children of the Taliban, Fariad Ali Han on borders.  Educate analysts (and self-educate) on the place, don’t waste time training them on the process.

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Journal: Intelligence Priority Theater, Weak Strategy

08 Wild Cards, Ethics, Government, Law Enforcement, Methods & Process, Military, Reform

China Removed As Top Priority For Spies

The decision downgrades China from “Priority 1” status, alongside Iran and North Korea, to “Priority 2,” which covers specific events such as the humanitarian crisis after the Haitian earthquake or tensions between India and Pakistan.

One new area that has been given a higher intelligence priority under the Obama administration is intelligence collection on climate change, a nontraditional mission marginally linked to national security. The CIA recently announced that it had set up a center to study the impact of climate change.

Phi Beta Iota: The priorities are primarily influential on collection by the National Security Agency (NSA), determining whether the “system” stays on Beijing or goes to Central Asia instead, and this is probably the heart of the matter.  HOWEVER, in combination with the DoD concerns that CIA is totally ineffective with respect to China, Afghanistan, or anything else of immediate concern (e.g. Somalia, Sudan, Yemen), and the idiocy of creating a Climate Change Center rather than restructuring to attack all ten high-level threats to humanity, this latest “theater” must be labeled for what it is–naked Emperors parading their very expensive rags.  CIA is an utter travesty in all respects.  The DNI is treading water for lack of vision, understanding, authority, and the will to confront “the system.”  DoD is not much better–paper-pushing stuffed shirts and politically-correct uniforms disconnected from ground truth and the real needs of policy directors, acquisition managers, and operational commanders down to the company level.  Not pretty at all.

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Journal: NIGHTWATCH Turkey-Israel, Sudan

08 Wild Cards

Turkey-Israel: Turkey and Israel no longer have the same strategic closeness as in the past, although some common strategic issues continue, Israeli military intelligence chief Amos Yadlin said today and Ynet reported. Speaking to members of the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Yadlin said Turkey no longer needs strategic closeness with Israel. Turkey is moving from a secular approach to what he called a “radical direction,” an apparent reference to Turkey’s outreach to Islamic states, including Iran, Lebanon and Syria.

Sudan:  President Omar al Bashir said today that his government would accept secession by the southern Sudanese, provided the southerners voted for independence in a referendum next year.

Speaking at a ceremony marking five years since the end of the north-south war, he said his Northern Congress Party did not want the south to secede, but said the party would be the first to welcome such a decision. This is an unusually conciliatory tone considering that much of Sudan’s oil wealth is in southern Sudan.

In response the president of Southern Sudan, Salva Kirri, said “The north and south will continue to be economically and politically connected whatever the choice of the people of Southern Sudan.,”

Comment: it is difficult to accept Bashir’s promises at face value and the date for a referendum has not yet been announced.

Phi Beta Iota: NIGHTWATCH Subscription Page at AFCEA.

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Journal: Haiti Maps, Disaster Capitalism, Photos

08 Wild Cards

Perry-Castañeda Library
Map Collection

Online Maps of Current Interest

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Steady Flow of local photos on Twitpic.

Charities in Haiti Now

Disaster Capitalism Headed to Haiti

US “Security” Companies Offer “Services” in Haiti

Journal: Haiti Rolling Update

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Journal: Guantanamo “Suicides”–Shamed Again

08 Wild Cards, 09 Justice, 09 Terrorism, 10 Security, Collective Intelligence, Cultural Intelligence, Ethics, Government, Methods & Process, Military, Peace Intelligence

Marcus Aurelius

Murder and Cover-Up

The Guantánamo Suicides

By STEPHEN SOLDZ

My friends who served in the military speak of the pride with they performed what  they viewed as their duty. This duty included the obligation to act with honor, including, above all, following the Geneva Conventions when handling detainees and prisoners of war. My friends tell sadly of the despair they felt in seeing this obligation shredded during the Bush administration as word came down that they should do “whatever it takes.”  Some of them resigned in disgust. Others resisted what they viewed as moral decay from within.

A new story by attorney Scott Horton at Harpers reveals yet another very disturbing episode of dishonor. Horton reveals strong credible evidence that three alleged “suicides” at Guantanamo in June 2006 were really homicides. The official story is that during the night of  June 9, 2006, three prisoners were found hanging in their cells in Alpha Block of Guantanamo's Camp 1.

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Stephen Soldz is a psychoanalyst, psychologist, public health researcher, and faculty member at the Boston Graduate School of Psychoanalysis. He edits the Psyche, Science, and Society blog. He is a founder of the Coalition for an Ethical Psychology, one of the organizations working to change American Psychological Association policy on participation in abusive interrogations. He is President-Elect of Psychologists for Social Responsibility [PsySR].

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Journal: Europe is Reading….

08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism, 10 Security, 10 Transnational Crime, Military
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Blackwater/XE behind terrorist bombings in Asia and Africa?

ByWayne Madsen Online Journal Contributing Writer

Jan 18, 2010, 00:25

WMR’s intelligence sources in Asia and Europe are reporting that the CIA contractor firm XE Services, formerly Blackwater, has been carrying out “false flag” terrorist attacks in Afghanistan, Somalia, the Sinkiang region of China, Pakistan, Iran, and Iraq, in some cases with the assistance of Israeli Mossad and Indian Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) personnel.

Fingers are being pointed at Blackwater/XE and Mossad operatives for the motorbike bomb in Tehran that killed Tehran University nuclear physicist Dr. Moussad Ali-Mohammadi.

General Sir David Richards

Gen Richards' views come ahead of a defence review and potential cuts

A “radical” shift in defence spending is needed, the head of the British army has said.

General Sir David Richards said priority should be given to troops working on the ground on winning over hearts and minds.

He told the International Institute for Strategic Studies there was too much emphasis on cutting-edge technology and not enough on cheaper troops and staff.

The UK was behind its enemies in being prepared for modern warfare, he added.

‘Minds of millions'

Gen Richards said current and future conflicts would focus on using communication to drum up support and would need more British troops to work among populations such as that in Afghanistan.

In his speech in London, he said: “If one equips more for this type of conflict while significantly reducing investment in higher-end war-fighting capability, suddenly one can buy an impressive amount of ‘kit'.

United States Attorney [in NY]  Plans Drug-Terrorism Unit

The United States attorney in Manhattan is merging the two units in his office that prosecute terrorism and international narcotics cases, saying that he wants to focus more on extremist Islamic groups whose members he believes are increasingly turning to the drug trade to finance their activities.

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