Reference: Strategic Survey 2010 includes Afghanistan

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism, Analysis, Monographs, Strategy, United Nations & NGOs
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Overview & Ordering Online

This year's survey places strong emphasis on the global nature of economic and financial vulernability, and on Afghanistan.  Below is a quote in two sections  from the official press statement releasing the survey to the public.

Strategic Survey 2010 does not seek to lay out a new comprehensive strategy for Afghanistan. It does however argue that for Western states to be pinned down militarily and psychologically in Afghanistan will not be in the service of their wider political and security interests. The challenge of Afghanistan must be viewed and addressed in proportion to the other threats to international security and the other requirements for foreign-policy investment. With economic, financial and diplomatic activity moving at such a pace and with such varied outcomes internationally, military operations in general have to be all the more carefully considered. Precision and adaptability will be essential watchwords. For heavy, large, military deployment, the longue durée will be seen as an attitude for other times, other centuries.

The Afghan campaign has involved not just mission creep but mission multiplication; narrowing the political-military engagement to core goals as described will allow for proper attention to be paid to other areas posing international terrorist risks, and indeed to other matters affecting international security.

See Also:

Search: Strategic Analytic Model

Journal: Free Cell Phones, Monetize the Knowledge

01 Poverty, 03 Economy, 04 Education, Autonomous Internet, Collaboration Zones, Key Players, Mobile

Huawei Ideos Cell $50

Huawei Android Smartphone ‘Ideos' Going To T-Mobile: Report

A few weeks into the future and an ad in the newspaper may look like this– looking for a Google powered smart phone? just spend $50- Amazed? Well that is what is the target of HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES and T-MOBILE US inclusive. The former a Chinese telecom equipment provider and the latter the fourth largest US mobile carrier.

The Ideos was unveiled on Thursday in Berlin. Ideos is an Android 2.2, the latest version of Google Inc.'s free mobile operating system; ensembles a 2.8-inch touch screen; and can be a Wi-Fi hotspot, allowing other devices to connect to the Internet. Ideos is better option to all these who aren't willing to pay exorbitant for devices such as Apple Inc.'s iPhone or Verizon Wireless's Droid lineup. Such brands typically retail for more than $500 without a contract, or $200 with a two-year contract.

Phi Beta Iota: Free cell phones to the poor, and call centers that educate them free “one cell call at a time,” are the foundation for creating infinite new wealth.  What most do not appear to understand is that just as with the genius of Gillette (sell the shave, not the shaver), in the 21st Century the cell phone and connectivity should be free, and it is the transmitted knowledge that is monetized (not sold, but monetized, e.g. early warning from farmers on disease strains, Twitters on earthquakes, etcetera.)

Journal: Multinational Transformation

About the Idea, Collaboration Zones, Communities of Practice, Key Players, Policies, Threats, Topics (All Other)

A few thoughts:

1)  Information-sharing and sense-making is “root” for multinational operations.

2)  Education, intelligence, and research must all be open and multinational in nature.

3)  Peaceful preventive measures rooted in open education and intelligence are the foundation.

4)  Precision covert and clandestine multinational operations are the intermediate capability.

5)  Hybrid operations by all eight tribes of intelligence, with the military as the “core force” for communications, intelligence-sharing and sense-making, logistics, and mobility, will be the norm.

6)  Gandhi had it right–cannot kill swarms with machine guns, the only winning move is peace for all.

7)  Yanus, Scowcroft, et al have it right–POVERTY is the #1 threat to humanity, eliminate poverty and everything else heals itself.

Core Link with Other Links (See Especially Those in Bold):

Search: The Future of OSINT [is M4IS2-Multinational]

20100905 Multinational Postings at Phi Beta Iota is organized into the following topics but only covers the last year instead of all five years.  It just became too demanding a task.

Acquisition (Multinational)
Analytics for Multinational/Whole Earth (Concepts & Methods)
Brain-Power/Human Intelligence
Bottom-Up
C4I Fundamentals (Needs, Tools)
Citizen-Centered Information & Intelligence
Civil-Military
Concepts for Civilization
Corruption
Education
French-Language Items
Hacking Earth
Handbooks
Information & Intelligence
Operations
Peace Through Innovation
Strategy (or Not)

See Also:
2010 INTELLIGENCE FOR EARTH: Clarity, Diversity, Integrity, & Sustainability
2008 COLLECTIVE INTELLIGENCE: Creating a Prosperous World at Peace
2006 INFORMATION OPERATIONS: All Information, All Languages, All the Time
2003 PEACEKEEPING INTELLIGENCE: Emerging Concepts for the Future
2002 THE NEW CRAFT OF INTELLIGENCE: Personal, Public, & Political
Worth a Look: Book Review Lists (Positive)
Worth a Look: Book Review Lists (Negative)

Journal: General Petraeus–Human Terrain Team NOT

08 Wild Cards, Cultural Intelligence, Methods & Process, Military, Peace Intelligence
"Is that HTT crawling across the rug over there?"

Did Gen. David Petraeus just call the Human Terrain System worthless? With a few choice sentences to the Wall Street Journal, the top commander in Afghanistan highlighted the disconnect between what the Army’s social science program is supposed to be doing — and what’s actually happening in the field.

We have never had the granular understanding of local circumstances in Afghanistan that we achieved over time in Iraq,” Petraeus told the Journal. “One of the key elements in our ability to be agile in our activities in Iraq during the surge was a pretty good understanding who the power brokers were in local areas, how the systems were supposed to work, how they really worked.”

Phi Beta Iota: The General fails to recollect that under the Cheney-Bremer regime, all were told to ignore the imams and tribal leaders.  It was only much later, after five years of failure, more or less, than some bright general decided to get back to basics.  As Winston Churchill liked to say, “The Americans always do the right thing, they just try everything else first.”  HTT has been a known failure since its inception.  For one view of how it should fit in with the other fourteen slices of Human Intelligence (HUMINT), see the new monograph from the Strategic Studies Institute,  Human Intelligence: All Humans, All Minds, All the Time (June 2010).    See also John Stanton on HTT Failures.

Journal: German Military on Peak Oil

05 Energy, Collaboration Zones, Communities of Practice, Key Players
Full Story Online
Full Story Online

09/01/2010

‘Peak Oil' and the German Government

Military Study Warns of a Potentially Drastic Oil Crisis

By Stefan Schultz

The relationship with Russia, in particular, is of fundamental importance for German access to oil and gas, the study says.   …  Peak oil would also have profound consequences for Berlin's posture toward the Middle East, according to the study.

Oil will determine power:
Increasing importance of oil exporters:
Politics in place of the market:
Market failures:
Relapse into planned economy:
Global chain reaction:
Crisis of political legitimacy:

The study appears to be deep and honest.  What does surprise us, however, are three things:

1.  Der Spiegel does not make reference to all of the same studies done in the 1970's that were ignored by policymakers and politicians.

2.  Der Spiegel and the study appear to confuse existing governments with legitimacy, rather than honest effective governance with legitimacy.  If there is a revolution in any of these countries, it will be to throw the corrupt rascals out and re-set democracy.  Revolutions are NOT expected in the Nordic countries or BENELUX.

3.  No one seems to understand that the time has come for a global Manhattan Project to simultaneously address the ten high level threats to humanity by harmonizing spending and policies by all players across the twelve core policies and in consonance with a futures council led by the future powers: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Iran, Russia, and Venezuela as well as Wild Cards such as Malaysia and Turkey.

See Also:

Journal: Cognitive Dissonance in Afghanistan

07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, Methods & Process, Military
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The author was “ordered home” within 24 hours (took three days to get him out).  Multiple commentaries suggest that he is actually “understated” in his remarks.  Below the line is balance of article, Small Wars Journal intelligence commentary, and link to illustrated blog with added value.  EDIT of 7 Sep 2010 to add comment from LtCol  Karen Kwiatkowski, USAF (Ret), at end.

Outside View: PowerPoints ‘R' Us

United Press International (UPI)

Aug 24 10:19 AM US/Eastern

KABUL, Afghanistan, Aug. 24 (UPI) — Throughout my career I have been known to walk that fine line between good taste and unemployment. I see no reason to change that now.

Consider the following therapeutic.

I have been assigned as a staff officer to a headquarters in Afghanistan for about two months. During that time, I have not done anything productive. Fortunately little of substance is really done here, but that is a task we do well.

We are part of the operational arm of the International Security Assistance Force commanded by U.S. Army Gen. David Petraeus. It is composed of military representatives from all the NATO countries, several of which I cannot pronounce.

Officially, IJC was founded in late 2009 to coordinate operations among all the regional commands in Afghanistan. More likely it was founded to provide some general a three-star command. Starting with a small group of dedicated and intelligent officers, IJC has successfully grown into a stove-piped and bloated organization, top-heavy in rank. Around here you can't swing a dead cat without hitting a colonel.

Continue reading “Journal: Cognitive Dissonance in Afghanistan”

NIGHTWATCH Extract: Indian Ocean Chinese Lake

02 China, 03 India

China-Burma (Myanmar): Xinhua reported two Chinese navy ships from the 5th Escort Task Group — the Caohu and Guanhzhou – called at Myanmar's Thilawa Port on 29 August. The visit is to last five days to promote good relations.

Comment: This is the first time Chinese naval ships have called at a port in Burma. It also is a direct challenge to Indian naval dominance of the Indian Ocean region.

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