Reference: Strategic National Risk Assessment PPD-8

Strategy, White Papers
Marcus Aurelius

Here, from a Federal web site open to the public, is an unclassified summary of what the US Government considers to be the risks from certain natural and manmade threats. Recognize it for what it is: an unclassified summary.

The Strategic National Risk Assessment in Support of PPD 8 A Comprehensive Risk-Based Approach toward a Secure and Resilient Nation

Phi Beta Iota:  An interesting effort with potential.  It's greatest failure is to avoid any consideration of national riots and armed insurrection in the face of complex inter-acting disasters that turn into catastrophes for lack of intelligence and integrity at all levels of all eight tribes, the government, military, law enforcement, and commerce especially.  It's second greatest failure is to ignore the fact that most of our problems are of our own making, and that the single fastest way to secure the USA would be to eradicate corruption and high crimes and misdemeanors now routine at the highest levels of Congress, the Executive, and as with CITIZENS UNITED, the Supreme Court.  As marginally clever as this summary is, it is completely lacking in a strategic analytic model, a matrix for identifying and remediating all the preconditions of revolution, and any semblance of a “net assessment” that the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) might use to be effective –but in fairness to OMB, the White House clearly does not want OMB to be effective, just to fake the numbers and keep the theater up until after November 2012.

See Also:

Charles Perrow, The Next Catastrophe: Reducing Our Vulnerabilities to Natural, Industrial, and Terrorist Disasters (Princeton University Press, 2011)

Obama in a Strategic & Intellectual Vacuum

Who Needs Enemies When We Have Us?

2012 PREPRINT FOR COMMENT: The Craft of Intelligence

2012 Reflexivity = Integrity: Toward Earth/Life 4.0

2009 Perhaps We Should Have Shouted: A Twenty-Year Retrospective

2009 Fixing the White House & National Intelligence

2009 Intelligence for the President–AND Everyone Else

1992 E3i: Ethics, Ecology, Evolution, & intelligence (Full Text Online for Google Translate))

Reference: Political Terror Scale

09 Terrorism, Civil Society, Corruption, Government, Law Enforcement, Military, White Papers

Political Terror Scale Home Page

Political Terror Scale Levels

level 5 Level 5 : Terror has expanded to the whole population. The leaders of these societies place no limits on the means or thoroughness
with which they pursue personal or ideological goals.

level 4 Level 4 : Civil and political rights violations have expanded to large numbers of the population. Murders, disappearances, and torture are a common part of life. In spite of its generality, on this level terror affects those who interest themselves
in politics or ideas.

level 3 Level 3 : There is extensive political imprisonment, or a recent history of such imprisonment. Execution or other political murders and brutality may be common. Unlimited detention, with or without a trial, for political views is accepted.

level 2 Level 2 : There is a limited amount of imprisonment for nonviolent political activity. However, few persons are affected, torture and beatings are exceptional. Political murder is rare.

level 1 Level 1 : Countries under a secure rule of law, people are not imprisoned for their views, and torture is rare or exceptional. Political murders are extremely rare.

Learn more.

Tip of the Hat to Berto Jongman.

Reference: The Predicament of Mankind: A Quest for Structured Responses to Growing World-Wide Complexities and Uncertainties (Original Proposal to the Club of Rome).

Advanced Cyber/IO, Collective Intelligence, Earth Intelligence, White Papers

Ozbekhan, H. (1970)  The Predicament of Mankind: A Quest for Structured Responses to Growing World-Wide Complexities and Uncertainties Proposal to the Club of Rome.

Club of Rome Original Proposal 1970

Phi Beta Iota:  The Club of Rome considered two proposals.  Limits to Growth, a top-down micro-management approach won.  The losing proposal focused on educating people and assuring public buy-in to achieve implementable and sustainable reforms.

See Also:

Reference: Ken Bausch on Third Phase Science and Dialogic Design Science

Reference: Ken Bausch on Third Phase Science and Dialogic Design Science

Advanced Cyber/IO, White Papers



Memorable Short-Cut:

2012-03-04 Ken Bausch on Third Phase Science (Handout)

2012-03-04 Ken Bausch Third Phase Science (Slides)

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The George Washington University
University Seminar on Reflexive Systems
Friday, March 2, 2012 from 10:00 am-12:00 pm
Funger Hall, Room 320,
2201 G Street NW

A Confluence of Third Phase Science
And Dialogic Design Science

Kenneth C Bausch
Institute for 21st Century Agoras
Riverdale, GA 30274

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Gerard de Zeeuw introduced the term ‘Third Phase Science’ in 1997.   A deliberative method which is called Dialogic Design Science (DDS; see illustrates an effective way of implementing third phase science as a means of understanding and adapting complex social situations. This presentation will explain De Zeeuw’s concept in non-specialist language and expand on the historical context of third phase science as a means of addressing contemporary needs. It shows how DDS completes Third Phase Science as an axiomatic science and makes third phase science into a valuable design methodology.

Amazon Page

Kenneth C. Bausch, PhD, grew up in Ohio and received his BA in Philosophy from Duns Scotus College followed by four years of intensive theological studies at St. Leonard's College.  He began his professional life as a Catholic priest of the Franciscan Order and has been a pastor, a high school teacher, an inner-city organizer working with street gangs and community groups, a counselor, a social service administrator, a real estate agent, a homebuilder, a contractor, a university professor, a research director, and an organizational consultant. Ken holds an MA in

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Psychology from the State University of West Georgia and a Ph.D. in Psychology from Saybrook University.  Ken now holds the leadership role at the Institute for 21st Century Agoras Institute, Capella University, and is currently teaching an online course through Flinders University in Australia.  His published books include The Emerging Consensus in Social Systems Theory (with Aleco Christakis; Information Age Publishing, Greenwich, CT 2006) and with Tom Flanagan, A Democratic approach to Sustainable Futures (2011).

See Also:

How People Harness Their Collective Wisdom And Power to Construct the Future (Research in Public Management)


Reference: Future-Proofing Cities (Craig Applegath)

Future-Oriented, White Papers
Click on Image to Enlarge

Future-Proofing Cities: Strategies to Help Cities Develop Capacities to Absorb Future Shocks and Stresses (PDF, 20 Pages, 2012)

See Also:

Graphic: Food Production (Future-Proofing Cities)

Graphic: Metabolism of Food-Energy-Water (Future-Proofing Cities)

Graphic: Distributed Integrated Production Food-Energy-Water (Future-Proofing Cities)

Graphic: Integrated Durability of Key Components (Future-Proofing Cities)

Robert Steele: Future-Proofing the City

Anthony Hall: When War is a Remedy for Terror?

Movies, White Papers

When War is Promoted as a Remedy for Terror

by Anthony J. Hall

Obama pulls bin Laden from hat

The You Tube of my San Francisco presentation on the tenth anniversary of 9/11 is being presented to the public here for the first time in early March of 2012.

Anthony J. Hall is Professor of Globalization Studies. His recent book, Earth into Property, sets 9/11 and the 9/11 Wars in the context of over 500 years of globalization. The publication of the American Library Association called Earth into Property “a scholarly tour de force” The Independent in the UK chose it as one of the best books of 2010. Professor Hall worked recently with Splitting The Sky, Cynthia McKinney, Ramsay Clark, Joshua Blakeney and others to pressure law enforcement officials in Canada to arrest George W. Bush for war crimes. Professor Hall’s recent work includes seminal investigation and publication on the nuclear catastrophe at Fukushima.

Full lecture with images, videos, and links below the line.

Continue reading “Anthony Hall: When War is a Remedy for Terror?”