Berto Jongman: Economic Consequences of War

04 Inter-State Conflict, 07 Other Atrocities, 09 Justice, 11 Society, Commercial Intelligence, Corruption, IO Impotency, Misinformation & Propaganda, Money, Banks & Concentrated Wealth, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence, Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests
Berto Jongman

Economic Consequences of War

New report released by the Institute for Economics & Peace analyses the macroeconomic effects of US government spending on wars and the military since World War II.

The IEP’s latest report,  Economic Consequences of War on the US Economy,  analyses the macroeconomic effects of US government spending on wars and the military.

The report studies five periods – World War II, the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Cold War, and the Afghanistan/Iraq wars – exposing the effect of war financing on debt, consumption, investment, jobs, taxes, government deficits, and inflation.

The findings of the report show devastating trends for US tax, debt and deficit debates.

Download the report here

Key findings

The U.S. has paid for its wars either through debt [World War II, Cold War, Afghanistan/Iraq], taxation [Korean War] or inflation [Vietnam]. In each case, taxpayers have been burdened, and private sector consumption and investment have been constrained as a result.

Report highlights

The report shows the following economic indicators experiencing negative effects either during or after the conflicts:

  • Public debt and levels of taxation increased during most conflicts
  • Consumption as a percent of GDP decreased during most conflicts
  • Investment as a percent of GDP decreased during most conflicts
  • Inflation increased during or as a direct consequence of these conflicts

The higher levels of government spending associated with war tends to generate some positive economic benefits in the short-term, specifically through increases in economic growth occurring during conflict spending booms. However, negative unintended consequences occur either concurrently with the war or develop as residual effects afterwards thereby harming the economy over the longer term.

Phi Beta Iota:  There appears to be a continued reluctance to address the real causes of our terrible situation: corruption across the board.  No amount of intellectual posturing, whether in a book or in a conference, is a substitute for full transparency and the truth — the whole truth.  The lack of integrity across all eight tribes — academia, civil society, commerce, government, law enforcement, media, military, and non-government/non-profit — is the ROOT CAUSE of our collapse.

See Also:

Journal: Politics & Intelligence–Partners Only When Integrity is Central to Both

2012 THE OPEN SOURCE EVERYTHING MANIFESTO: Transparency, Truth & Trust

2010 The Ultimate Hack Re-Inventing Intelligence to Re-Engineer Earth (Chapter for Counter-Terrorism Book Out of Denmark)

Event: 27-28 March DC Affordable World Security Conference

Earth Intelligence

Can be watched live and presumably after the fact via this page, online registration to watch live required, but there is no cost to register.

http://affordableworldsecurity.org/live

Tracks on economics, environment, humanity, technology, defense.

The event is FREE subject to first come first serve ONLINE REGISTRATION.

Tip of the Hat to Berto Jongman.

Charles Keil: Open Letter to Ron Paul & Dennis Kucinich

Uncategorized
Charles Keil

As sent 16 March 2012

Dear Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich,

I urge you to put your respective strengths together on a firm foundation built by back-to-basics Austrian and Buddhist economics.  A casual reading of G. Bateson, E. F. Schumacher, John Ruskin, anyone who has thought long and hard about the profound evil embodied in “central banking,” war preparations and “Fed manipulations” everywhere, will give you the tools and bricks you need to build a Reform Party and/or an Americans Elect TEAM based on emergent truths and the oldest traditions.

At the Truth & Traditions party website (cranks and planks without a platform or an actual political party) you will find arguments, positions, reports, a Declaration of Interdependence, some of what you will need to create a balanced platform and a beyond-bi-partisan Sunshine Cabinet whose members and many surrogates can campaign with you this summer and fall.

Continue reading “Charles Keil: Open Letter to Ron Paul & Dennis Kucinich”

David Swanson: Lies, Lies, and More Lies…

Civil Society, Commerce, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, IO Impotency, Media, Peace Intelligence
David Swanson

Nine Years Later: More Shocked, Less Awed

When I lived in New York 20 years ago, the United States was beginning a 20-year war on Iraq. We protested at the United Nations. The Miami Herald depicted Saddam Hussein as a giant fanged spider attacking the United States. Hussein was frequently compared to Adolf Hitler. On October 9, 1990, a 15-year-old Kuwaiti girl told a U.S. congressional committee that she’d seen Iraqi soldiers take 15 babies out of an incubator in a Kuwaiti hospital and leave them on the cold floor to die. Some congress members, including the late Tom Lantos (D., Calif.), knew but did not tell the U.S. public that the girl was the daughter of the Kuwaiti ambassador to the United States, that she’d been coached by a major U.S. public relations company paid by the Kuwaiti government, and that there was no other evidence for the story. President George H. W. Bush used the dead babies story 10 times in the next 40 days, and seven senators used it in the Senate debate on whether to approve military action. The Kuwaiti disinformation campaign for the Gulf War would be successfully reprised by Iraqi groups favoring the overthrow of the Iraqi government twelve years later.

Read full article.

Elections: What Are They Good For?

I think two opposing trends have been at work in U.S. history. One is that of allowing more people to vote. This is an ongoing struggle, of course, but in some significant sense we've allowed poor people and women and non-white people and young people to vote. The other trend, which has really developed more recently, is that we've made voting less and less meaningful. Of course it was never as meaningful as many people imagine. But we've legalized bribery, we've banished third parties and independents, we've gerrymandered most Congressional districts into meaningless general elections and left one party or the other to exercise great influence over any primary. Rarely does any incumbent lose, and rarely does a candidate without the most money win. Extremely rare is a winning candidate who lacks some major financial backing. Rarer still is a candidate who even promises to pursue majority positions on most major issues, or who convincingly commits to following the will of the public over the will of the party. Most Congress members are pawns in a government with two partisan voices, not the voices of 535 individual representatives and senators. Rare, as well, is any possibility in a close primary or general election of verifying the accuracy of a vote count.

There appears to many observers little, sometimes even nothing, to be gained by voting. A lack of decent education and news media, combined with negative campaign ads that make the whole process seem filthy are probably a turn off. Yet roughly 55% of voting age people in the U.S. continue to vote in presidential elections and roughly 35% in off-year elections. And those numbers would probably go up if we didn't take people's right to vote away when we convict them of crimes, if we didn't deny citizenship to so many immigrants, or if we made voter registration automatic, stopped trying to intimidate people out of voting or forcing them to vote on second-class provisional ballots, made election day a holiday, etc.

We've also created a dominant media cartel that can — without any exaggeration — instruct large numbers of people whom to vote for — a situation that outrages some of us, but by definition is deemed acceptable by many others. Or, rather, it's not deemed acceptable, but it's either unnoticed or it's viewed as a tragedy of the commons that cannot be countered by any individual alone. On the Kucinich 04 presidential campaign, he would win the most applause, but then people would say “I'd vote for him if he were serious,” because their televisions had told them he wasn't one of the real, serious, viable choices, and either they believed that or they believed that everyone else believed it which left them powerless to single-handedly do anything about it.

Read full article.

Michel Bauwens: The Future of Cities, Information & Inclusion

IO Impotency
Michel Bauwens

Dated but relevant.

The Future of Cities, Information, and Inclusion

Over the next decade, cities will continue to grow larger and more rapidly. At the same time, new technologies will unlock massive streams of data about cities and their residents. As these forces collide, they will turn every city into a unique civic laboratory—a place where technology is adapted in novel ways to meet local needs. This ten-year forecast map, The Future of Cities, Information, and Inclusion, charts the important intersections between urbanization and digitalization that will shape this global urban experiment, and the key tensions that will arise.

The explosive growth of cities is an economic opportunity with the potential to lift billions out of poverty. Yet the speed of change and lack of pro-poor foresight has led to a swarm of urban problems—poor housing conditions, inadequate education and health care, and racial and ethnic inequalities. The coming decade holds an opportunity to harness information to improve government services, alleviate poverty and inequality, and empower the poor. Key uncertainties are coming into view:

  • What economic opportunities will urban information provide to excluded groups?
  • What new exclusions might arise from new kinds of data about the city and its citizens?
  • How will communities leverage urban information to improve service delivery, transparency, and citizen engagement?

As information technology spreads beyond the desktop into every corner of citizens' lives, it will provide a new set of tools for poor and excluded groups to re-engineer their relationship with government, the built environment, and each other.

Funded by a grant from the Rockefeller Foundation, IFTF has identified this challenge—harnessing data for development and inclusion—as a critical cross-sectoral urban issue for the next decade and beyond.

Phi Beta Iota:  We do not believe that cities will get larger and thrive.  The supply lines and legacy infrastructure are not sustainable.  The Rockefeller reference is an excellent example of ostensibly reputable “research” that lacks a strategic analytic model, any semblance of “true cost” understanding, or any commitment to actually doing comprehensive architecture or whole design.

Berto Jongman: Big Data Big Deal — But Humans Still Dumb

IO Impotency
Berto Jongman

Why Big Data is now such a big deal

Computers are spewing forth data at astronomical rates about everything from astrophysics to internet shopping. And it could be hugely valuable

John Naughton

The Observer, 17 March 2012

One of the most famous quotes in the history of the computing industry is the assertion that “640KB ought to be enough for anybody“, allegedly made by Bill Gates at a computer trade show in 1981 just after the launch of the IBM PC. The context was that the Intel 8088 processor that powered the original PC could only handle 640 kilobytes of Random Access Memory (RAM) and people were questioning whether that limit wasn't a mite restrictive.

Gates has always denied making the statement and I believe him; he's much too smart to make a mistake like that. He would have known that just as you can never be too rich or too thin, you can also never have too much RAM. The computer on which I'm writing this has four gigabytes (GB) of it, which is roughly 6,000 times the working memory of the original PC, but even then it sometimes struggles with the software it has to run.

But even Gates could not have foreseen the amount of data computers would be called upon to handle within three decades. We've had to coin a whole new set of multiples to describe the explosion – from megabytes to gigabytes to terabytes to petabytes, exabytes, zettabytes and yottabytes (which is two to the power of 80, or 10 followed by 23 noughts).

This escalating numerology has been necessitated by an explosion in the volume of data surging round our digital ecosystem from developments in science, technology, networking, government and business. From science, we have sources such as astronomy, particle physics and genonomics. The Sloan Digital Sky Survey, for example, began amassing data in 2000 and collected more in its first few weeks than all the data collected before that in the history of astronomy. It's now up to 140 terabytes and counting, and when its successor comes online in 2016 it will collect that amount of data every five days. Then there's the Large Hadron Collider, (LHC) which in 2010 alone spewed out 13 petabytes – that's 13m gigabytes – of data .

Continue reading “Berto Jongman: Big Data Big Deal — But Humans Still Dumb”

Berto Jongman: Ray Kurzweil on Man-Machine Future

Cultural Intelligence
Berto Jongman

Inside the Kurzweil SXSW Keynote: On Infinite Mind Power, Robotic Overlords and Immortality

He is one of the world’s most renowned futurists, and onstage at South By Southwest, Ray Kurzweil stirred debate with a speech that outlined the incredible role artificial intelligence will play in the future, as it reshapes humanity

South By Southwest Interactive is a bubble of optimism; a haven of ingenuity that seems liberated from all the constraints, or cynicism, of daily life. There are conceptual talks here that forgo all notions of funding or commerce, to instead bask in the glory of the Next Big Idea. There are demonstrations where you can sense that you’re peering around the corner, at how people will be interacting differently with their computers – and their worlds – two or three years from now.

And then occasionally there are presentations which send you spiraling through a time warp, glimpsing a vision of the future society that this conference seems to be moving towards each and every year, in increments that can be measured with every new app or software update. (See TIME’s full coverage of the 2012 SXSW) At Monday’s keynote event, which paired futurist Ray Kurzweil with TIME’s own Lev Grossman – who last worked together in forming the dazzling scientific hypotheses of this 2011 TIME cover story, which served as a basis of sorts for the Austin address – more than three thousand conference-goers filled every last seat of South By Southwest’s largest venue to marvel at Kurzweil’s vision of the future.

(MORE: Kurzweil Tells TIME — Humans Will One Day Be Immortal)

Continue reading “Berto Jongman: Ray Kurzweil on Man-Machine Future”