Peace Intelligence – Page 381 – Public Intelligence Blog

2011/08/232011/08/23

Chuck Spinney: Karzai Cornered, US Into the Quagmire

03 Economy, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, IO Deeds of War, Military, Peace Intelligence

Karzai Cornered

Rediff 08/22/2011

By M K Bhadrakumar

EXTRACT:

The US expectation that the Taliban would learn to live with the American occupation in their lust for power in Kabul is far-fetched and can only be seen as wishful thinking.

. . . . . .

Equally, the ‘hidden agenda’ of the US invasion of Afghanistan can no longer be disowned. Quite obviously, the US intends to plunge into the ‘great game’ in Central Asia.

Read full article….

Phi Beta Iota: This is absolutely worth a complete read. The US is, as the author suggests, delusional in thinking the Taliban is going to put up with a US presence beyond this winter. The US has sentenced Karzai to death, and may well lose another 1,000 troops to body bags before the public has its “Tet Offensive” wake-up. There is nothing in Central Asia worth blood, spirit, and treasure–what is there is vastly over-stated in relation to what could be gained by refocusing on rebuilding America from inside out. This is a study in corruption across the legislative and executive branches of the US Government.

2011/08/232011/08/24

DefDog: A Gandhi Model Galvanizes India on Anti-Corruption

Cultural Intelligence, Peace Intelligence

The power of peace…..

A Gandhi Model Galvanizes India

Fasting, White-Clothed Hazare Was Tapped by Anticorruption Activists Looking for an Icon to Put Spirit Back in Fight

By AMOL SHARMA And KRISHNA POKHAREL

Wall Street Journal, 23 August 2011

NEW DELHI—Last fall, a group of leading anticorruption activists in India had reached a dead end. Their appeals to authorities to crack down on graft after a wave of high-profile scandals were going unheeded. They needed a figurehead to galvanize the masses and shame the government into action.

One of the activists traveled to a rural outpost in western India to enlist Kisan “Anna” Hazare, a military veteran best known for turning a village that was stricken by drought and hooked on alcohol into a model of economic development. In Mr. Hazare, the movement tapped a leader whose austere lifestyle and history of nonviolent protests, including fasts, recalled the spirit and tactics of modern India's most iconic founding father, Mohandas “Mahatma” Gandhi.

In the ensuing months, Mr. Hazare has achieved much of what his backers hoped, harnessing Indians' rage and disgust over corruption to create an unprecedented standoff between civil society and the government.

Winslow Wheeler: Leon Panetta Misleads Public

10 Security, 11 Society, Civil Society, Corruption, DoD, Government, IO Deeds of War, Military, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence

WinslowWheeler Cropped — Winslow Wheeler

Secretary of Defense Panetta used an invitation to the National War College as an opportunity to lobby against cutting the defense budget more than the $350 billion he has already agreed to. In the absence of any informed or probing questions, Panetta's extreme rhetoric has also oozed into new Washington DC hysteria resulting from reports about a new round of Pentagon budget cuts. Even the most severe version of the cuts being bandied about would leave DOD quite flush with money in historic terms.

These are the themes in a new piece, “Elitist Tripe on Defense Spending,” at AOL Defense.

The invitation came to me from Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta's public affairs office to attend a “conversation” with Panetta and Secretary of State Hilary Clinton at the prestigious National Defense University in Washington. Although I knew it wasn't me they wanted to talk to, I sat in the audience to hear Panetta and Clinton in action, especially on the subject of my prime interest: the defense budget.

Continue reading “Winslow Wheeler: Leon Panetta Misleads Public”

2011/08/192011/08/19

Chuck Spinney: NATO and Libya – What Next?

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Corruption, Counter-Oppression/Counter-Dictatorship Practices, Cultural Intelligence, Government, IO Deeds of War, Military, Peace Intelligence

The interplay of chance with necessity means that no one can predict the future evolutionary pathway in Libya or the US role in Libya, but Ted Galen Carpenter of the libertarian CATO Inst. provides a thoughtful lens for thinking about potential ramifications of NATO's precipitate intervention in Libya.

Key issues discussed:

De facto or de jure partition vs a unification that sows the seeds of future conflict?
How to replenish empty Libyan treasury and repair infrastructure (including restoring oil production capability)?
Will US get sucked into another NATO stabilization, peacekeeping, nation-building mission?

NATO’s New Problem: Post-Qaddafi Libya?

Ted Galen Carpenter, The National Interest, August 18, 2011

After weeks of very little movement either militarily or diplomatically in Libya, there are apparent developments on both fronts in recent days. Rebel forces, aided by NATO’s air support, finally appear to be advancing into western Libya and cutting off supply lines to Tripoli, the long-time stronghold of support for Muammar Qaddafi. And reports are swirling about secret negotiations that might provide a peaceful exit from the country for the aging dictator.

Those developments underscore that U.S. and NATO officials urgently need to consider what strategy they intend to pursue if Qaddafi’s more-than-four-decade hold on power finally comes to an end. That is more crucial for the leaders of the European members of the alliance, since Libya is located on Europe’s Mediterranean flank, but because the Obama administration unwisely chose to involve the United States in Libya’s internecine conflict by launching air strikes, it has become a pertinent issue for Washington as well.

The outlook for a post-Qaddafi Libya is midpoint between sobering and depressing. It is possible that the warring parties will accept a de facto division of the country between the eastern and western tribes, although a formal agreement to that effect is unlikely. Even an informal partition would more accurately reflect the demographics, politics, and history of that territory than an insistence on keeping Libya intact.

Chuck Spinney: US versus Iran on Uranium-Lack of Integrity

05 Iran, 08 Proliferation, 10 Security, 11 Society, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, IO Deeds of War, IO Impotency, Peace Intelligence

Spinning Iran's centrifuges

By Yousaf Butt, Asia Times, Aug 16, 2011

Yousaf Butt is a nuclear physicist and is currently serving as a scientific consultant to the Federation of American Scientists on global security issues. Previously, he was a fellow on the Committee on International Security and Arms Control at the US National Academy of Sciences, and on the Global Security Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists.

Consider yourself warned – “[I]n the next few years Iran will be in position to detonate a nuclear device,” so writes Ray Takeyh, confidently, in a recent Washington Post OpEd [1]. Why? Because the Iranian government willingly informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that it would begin installing additional centrifuges with higher capacity to enrich uranium. [2]

Just like fertilizer can be used to increase crop yields – or make bombs – uranium is a dual use material.

Read full article.

2011/08/172011/08/17

Reference: Intelligence Cooperation in Multinational International Peace Operations

Advanced Cyber/IO, Articles & Chapters, Communities of Practice, Ethics, InfoOps (IO), Intelligence (government), Key Players, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence, Policies, Real Time, Resilience, Strategy, Threats

Col Svensson UN Photo Repaired — Jan-Inge Svensson

ABSTRACT

Intelligence is a tool for power and traditionally very sensitive by nature. Well-established and bureaucratic resistance, international positioning and working methods hamper cooperation concerning intelligence. In a multifunctional and multinational peace operation a lot of informal structures are intertwined with formal structures.

EXTRACT

In order to create a picture of the widest spectrum in a multifunctional mission cooperation is necessary among military, police, Governmental- and International organisations and NGO`s. Intelligence services need to communicate with each other, and multi-lateral agreements need to be established to governing the collection, analysis and sharing of intelligence.

DOC Online (5 Pages)

2004 4 Dec Stockholm Peacekeeping Intelligence Trip Report

Books: Intelligence for Peace (PKI Book Two) Finalizing

PKI Book I CH04 Svensson Peacekeeping and Intelligence Experiences from United Nations Protection Force 1995

Worth a Look: First Ever UN Joint Military Analysis Centre Course (October 2009)

2011/08/152011/08/15

DefDog: Defense Entitlement Comes to An End….

10 Security, Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, Government, Military, Peace Intelligence, Threats

Butts in seats would be a good place to start in most cases…..

A golden decade for defense companies is ending

Associated Press, 15 August 2011

NEW YORK – The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are winding down, Osama bin Laden is dead, and the federal government is deeply in debt. This spells the end of what was a golden decade for the defense industry.

In the decade since the Sept. 11 attacks, the annual defense budget has more than doubled to $700 billion and annual defense industry profits have nearly quadrupled, approaching $25 billion last year.

Now defense spending is poised to retreat, and so are industry profits.

Read full article…

Phi Beta Iota: Long comment and links below the line.

Continue reading “DefDog: Defense Entitlement Comes to An End….”