Journal: TIME (Joe Klein) on Collective Intelligence

Civil Society, Collective Intelligence, Cultural Intelligence
Tom Atlee Recommends
Illustration by Stephen Kroninger for TIME

How Can a Democracy Solve Tough Problems?

Joe Klein

Thursday, 2 September 2010

TIME Magazine

But what if there were a machine, a magical contraption that could take the process of making tough decisions in a democracy, shake it up, dramatize it and make it both credible and conclusive? As it happens, the ancient Athenians had one. It was called the kleroterion, and it worked something like a bingo-ball selector. Each citizen — free males only, of course — had an identity token; several hundred were picked randomly every day and delegated to make major decisions for the polis.

Actually, the Chinese coastal district of Zeguo (pop. 120,000) has its very own kleroterion, which makes all its budget decisions. The technology has been updated: the kleroterion is a team led by Stanford professor James Fishkin. Each year, 175 people are scientifically selected to reflect the general population.

Tom Atlee Comments:

I'm not yet up to diving in re this fascinating TIME article on participatory budgeting based on Deliberative Polling methodology  but some of you might want to.  Interesting that they don't cover Participatory Budgeting, which is becoming widespread in South America, or the experiments using Citizens Juries for budgeting in Canada… It is, of course, amazing that less-wise forms of deliberative democracy — like Fishkin's Deliberative Polls and AmericaSpeaks' 21st Century Town Meetings — are preferred by power-holders over more potent forms like Citizens Juries, Citizens Assemblies, Consensus Conferences, etc., to say nothing of Wisdom Councils (which aren't strictly deliberative).  On second thought, it is not surprising.. 🙂  But Fishkin and Lukensmeyer have the political savvy to clear the way for more advanced forms of wise democracy to emerge into public awareness and use.  It's up to us to use that space.

Coheartedly,
Tom

Journal: General Petraeus–Human Terrain Team NOT

08 Wild Cards, Cultural Intelligence, Methods & Process, Military, Peace Intelligence
"Is that HTT crawling across the rug over there?"

Did Gen. David Petraeus just call the Human Terrain System worthless? With a few choice sentences to the Wall Street Journal, the top commander in Afghanistan highlighted the disconnect between what the Army’s social science program is supposed to be doing — and what’s actually happening in the field.

We have never had the granular understanding of local circumstances in Afghanistan that we achieved over time in Iraq,” Petraeus told the Journal. “One of the key elements in our ability to be agile in our activities in Iraq during the surge was a pretty good understanding who the power brokers were in local areas, how the systems were supposed to work, how they really worked.”

Phi Beta Iota: The General fails to recollect that under the Cheney-Bremer regime, all were told to ignore the imams and tribal leaders.  It was only much later, after five years of failure, more or less, than some bright general decided to get back to basics.  As Winston Churchill liked to say, “The Americans always do the right thing, they just try everything else first.”  HTT has been a known failure since its inception.  For one view of how it should fit in with the other fourteen slices of Human Intelligence (HUMINT), see the new monograph from the Strategic Studies Institute,  Human Intelligence: All Humans, All Minds, All the Time (June 2010).    See also John Stanton on HTT Failures.

Journal: Libertarian Perspective on Intelligence

Academia, Civil Society, Government

Michael Ostrolenk Recommends

September 2, 2010

Remind Me Again Why We Pay the Intelligence Bureaucracy?

Posted by Karen Kwiatkowski on September 2, 2010 06:48 PM

This detailed geo-statistical analysis entitled “The Fog of War: The Geography of the WikiLeaks Afghanistan War Logs 2004-2009″ has been published, not much more than a month after Wikileaks made available to the world six years of Afghanistan records and reports. The study was honestly, scientifically, and nimbly completed and published at no direct cost to the intelligence community. It was made possible by the decentralization, fluidity, and constant sharing and shifting of roles and responsibilities that comprise the Internet. As I read through this lucid analysis, I recalled the recently published Washington Post project, Top Secret America. Both the Post and the researchers in “Fog of War” tried to be careful not to step on government toes, but the very process and existence of these kinds of analyses are cause for great optimism, and provide a strong justification to radically slash government spending on intelligence that the state has proven to be unable to use effectively.

Phi Beta Iota: Michael Ostrolenk, our newest contributing editor, is a Libertarian with a very broad range of policy interests and an innate desire to use the taxpayer dollar wisely.  The cited item leads to two different pdf files, each with multiple color-coded maps.

Journal: US Intelligence versus WikiLeaks

Civil Society, Government

U.S. Intelligence planned to destroy WikiLeaks

WikiLeaks release: March 15, 2010

Phi Beta Iota: Click on the title to read their description of the SECRET/NOFORN document entitled Wikileaks.org – An Online Reference to Foreign Intelligence Services, Insurgents, Or Terrorist Groups? dated 18 March 2008, evidently out of the U.S. Army.   The document is no longer available at the stated link.  Our esteemed colleague Steven Aftergood of the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) has been down on WikiLeaks for its irresponsibility, as found in this posting at Secrecy News,  Wikileaks: Giving Leaks a Bad Name.  What is clear from the description is that these folks have no clue how the US Intelligence Community actually works (or not).  They seriously exaggerate and even misrepresent the document's thrust, and draw strategic action conclusions about “planned” action from minor-league tactical-technical level “exploratory” analysis.  We continue to believe that whistle-blowing is good for society, but we also meet FAS half-way in observing that WikiLeaks is half-baked.  Public intelligence in the public interest is NOT about violating secrecy oaths, exposing secrets, or in any way breaking the law–instead, public intelligence is about driving holistic analytics using open sources and methods so as to produce decision-support that can be shared, and in being shared, can help harmonize spending and behavior by multiple multinational stake-holders.  WikiLeaks is the opposite of Phi Beta Iota.

Journal: CIA Out, JSOC In for Covert Operations–Meanwhile, CIA PAO Touts CIA as a 9-to-5 Job

07 Other Atrocities, 09 Justice, 10 Security, Government, Military

Marcus Aurelius Recommends

Shhhhhh! JSOC is Hiring Interrogators and Covert Operatives for ‘Special Access Programs'

Jeremy Scahill | August 25, 2010

What has become abundantly clear is that the Obama administration has taken the Bush-era doctrine of the world as a battlefield and run with it. US special forces are now operating in seventy-five countries across the globe—up from sixty under Bush—and special operations sources say Obama is a major fan of the work of JSOC and other special operations forces.

Full Story Online at The Nation

Working at the CIA: Fact or Fiction

Despite its portrayal in the movies, working at the Central Intelligence Agency isn’t glamour and danger all the time. In fact, for most officers, it’s more like a normal 9-to-5 job. This story is the first in a series that will debunk certain myths and misperceptions about working at the CIA.

Meet Brad, Chris, Larry, and Eleanor — all experienced CIA officers with time spent overseas. In this article, they’ll share their insights and do their best to debunk myths about being an Agency employee.

FULL STORY at CIA Web Site

Phi Beta Iota: Just shaking our head.  CIA, 9 to 5.  The other observation is that unilateral anything is bad, bad, bad.  We should be creating multinational regional stations and using host country case officers on the street, not muscle-bound guys whose idea of cover clothing is shorts and corafam shoes.

Journal: Twitter Breaks the News

09 Justice, 10 Security, Civil Society, Law Enforcement, Media, Methods & Process, Tools

Full Story Online

Twitter breaks story on Discovery Channel gunman James Lee

Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, September 2, 2010

The news broke around 1 p.m. with a few sketchy details. Gunman. Shots. Hostages. Discovery building.

Within minutes, there were photos, including an astonishing one of a man clad in shorts, carrying a rifle and stalking through what looked like an office courtyard.

The news of a gunman at the Discovery Channel's headquarters in Silver Spring indeed traveled fast on Wednesday, but none of it came through radio, TV or newspaper Web sites, at least not at first. As it has with other breaking news events — the landing of a jet on the Hudson River in 2009, the 2008 massacre in Mumbai — the story unfolded first in hiccupping fits and starts on Twitter, the much-hyped micro-blogging service that has turned millions of people into worldwide gossips, opinion-mongers and amateur news reporters.

See Also:
Event Report CORRECTED LINKS: Responding to Real Time Information, Open Systems and the Obama IT Vision [Google-Microsoft Meld]
Graphics: Twitter as an Intelligence Tool
ICT4Peace Kyrgyzstan Crisis Wiki
Journal: DARPA & MIT Discover “Share the Wealth”
Journal: DARPA Tests Twitter
Journal: Free Twitter Rocks, People Rule in Haiti
Journal: Haiti–Twitter Rocks
Journal: IC on Twitter, Still Not Making Sense
Journal: PA & NYPD Criminalize Twitter
Journal: Taming Twitter–Emergence of Baby World Brain?
Journal: Tech ‘has changed foreign policy’
Journal: The Twitter Train Has Left the Station
Journal: Twitter Aggregation Way Cool
Journal: Whither Twitter?
Peace-Building Thru Spotlights on Local Insights
Reference: How to Use Twitter to Build Intelligence
Review: SMS Uprising: Mobile Activism in Africa
Review: The World Is Open–How Web Technology Is Revolutionizing Education
Twitter & SMS Used to Help Election in Kenya
U.S. Geological Survey: Twitter Earthquake Detector (TED)
Worth a Look: CrowdMap (Beta)
Worth a Look: MicroPlace Giving to the Poor
Worth a Look: Talking Plants–Sensor to Shooter

Journal: German Military on Peak Oil

05 Energy, Collaboration Zones, Communities of Practice, Key Players
Full Story Online
Full Story Online

09/01/2010

‘Peak Oil' and the German Government

Military Study Warns of a Potentially Drastic Oil Crisis

By Stefan Schultz

The relationship with Russia, in particular, is of fundamental importance for German access to oil and gas, the study says.   …  Peak oil would also have profound consequences for Berlin's posture toward the Middle East, according to the study.

Oil will determine power:
Increasing importance of oil exporters:
Politics in place of the market:
Market failures:
Relapse into planned economy:
Global chain reaction:
Crisis of political legitimacy:

The study appears to be deep and honest.  What does surprise us, however, are three things:

1.  Der Spiegel does not make reference to all of the same studies done in the 1970's that were ignored by policymakers and politicians.

2.  Der Spiegel and the study appear to confuse existing governments with legitimacy, rather than honest effective governance with legitimacy.  If there is a revolution in any of these countries, it will be to throw the corrupt rascals out and re-set democracy.  Revolutions are NOT expected in the Nordic countries or BENELUX.

3.  No one seems to understand that the time has come for a global Manhattan Project to simultaneously address the ten high level threats to humanity by harmonizing spending and policies by all players across the twelve core policies and in consonance with a futures council led by the future powers: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Iran, Russia, and Venezuela as well as Wild Cards such as Malaysia and Turkey.

See Also: